Bleacher Report Releases 2023 Stat Predictions for KC Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
Despite losing All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill via trade just an offseason ago, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had yet another outstanding campaign in 2022-23.
Leading the Chiefs to a 14-3 record and the top overall seed in the AFC playoffs, Mahomes did more than enough to lock up his second NFL MVP award in just five years as the team's full-time starter. Leading the league in passing yards (5,250), passing touchdowns (41) and QBR (77.6), Mahomes also received All-Pro and Pro Bowl honors in the process. It may not have been the best statistical feat of his career thus far — 2018's 50-touchdown effort will always be very difficult to beat — but it was terrific nonetheless.
In a recent article projecting the stat lines of all 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL 2023-24, Alex Kay of Bleacher Report doesn't have Mahomes experiencing an equally impressive encore compared to this past season. With that said, the projections still list Mahomes as the league leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Here's some of what Kay wrote on Mahomes:
While Mahomes didn't experience a fall-off after top target Tyreek Hill was traded away last offseason, he did lose a few key pass-catchers from last year's squad. Both JuJu Smith Schuster—who was responsible for 933 yards and three touchdowns on 78 receptions—and Mecole Hardman, who had a career-best 59-catch, 693-yard, two-touchdown campaign, exited in free agency.
The team didn't make any high-profile additions on the open market, but is instead hoping to see growth from young wideouts like Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore when they step into more prominent roles. Second-round rookie Rashee Rice should also be in the mix due to his blend of size, speed and ball skills.
Despite the inexperience in this receiving corps, Mahomes should have little issues maximizing their talents while also leaning on reliable tight end Travis Kelce heavily each week. Expect the 27-year-old to keep the Chiefs atop the list of Super Bowl favorites all year while posting his usual big numbers for as long as Kelce remains playing a superstar level.
Projection: 66 percent completion rate, 4,892 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 55 carries, 325 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns.
Here's where the predicted stats from above would rank in Mahomes's career (excluding the 2017 season which saw him start just one game):
- 66% completion rate: T-4
- 4,892 passing yards: 3
- 38 passing touchdowns: T-3
- 10 interceptions: 4
- 55 rushing attempts: 5
- 325 rushing yards: 3
- Three rushing touchdowns: 2
That stat line wouldn't come close to marking a career-best campaign for Mahomes, but it's a series of numbers that would be lifetime highs for most quarterbacks in the NFL. If the 27-year-old is able to reach those benchmarks this coming season, Kansas City should stand a good chance of winning double-digit games easily and also competing for another AFC West crown in the regular season. Is it an MVP-caliber effort? Compared to the rest of the projections, on Kay's list, yes.
