Arrowhead Report

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers: Preview and Prediction

Everything you need to know before the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Carolina Panthers on Sunday in Week 9 of the NFL season.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers: Preview and Prediction
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers: Preview and Prediction

Following their comfortable 35-9 win against the New York Jets, the 7-1 Chiefs host the 3-5 Carolina Panthers with star running back Christian McCaffrey returning from an injury that kept him out for the Panthers' last six games. In those six games, the Panthers have gone 3-3, but the last three games have brought three consecutive losses.

Stat to Know: The Panthers' run offense has been among the NFL's worst in 2020, with and without McCaffrey.

So far in the 2020 season, the Panthers have the second-worst run offense in the NFL with a -0.172 rush EPA per play. An explanation for this could obviously be that the Panthers have missed McCaffrey in six of their eight games this season. However, it may not be quite that simple.

In the six games without McCaffrey, the Panthers are 29th with a -0.184 rush EPA per play tally. However, in the two games with McCaffrey, they were 27th with a -0.143 rush EPA play total. On top of that, McCaffrey had just a 3.8 yards per carry in 41 carries while Mike Davis, his replacement, had 4.2 yards per carry in 84 carries. Will this turn around for McCaffrey? I don't know, but I'm interested to find out!

Matchup to Watch: Panthers wide receivers vs. Chiefs cornerbacks

The Panthers' key offensive sparkplugs this season have been a couple names that many Chiefs fans know about, wide receivers Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Anderson is a player some fans wanted to be a Chief, and for good reason. In 2017-19, as a member of the Jets, Anderson had at least 750 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns in each season. This season, he has just one touchdown, but he has 689 receiving yards, the third-most in the NFL. His current trajectory of 1,378 receiving yards would smash his previous career-high of 941. 

Moore is also in the top 10 for receiving yards among wide receivers, currently standing in eighth with 622. On top of that, Moore has three receiving touchdowns, which leads the team. Both of these two can be a handful for the Chiefs' secondary, though said secondary is much better now than in previous seasons, ranking second in passing EPA allowed per play with -0.071.

Key to the Game: Will the Panthers defense play their best football?

The Panthers defense has not had a fun season, having the 23rd-ranked rush EPA allowed per play and the 22nd ranked pass EPA allowed per play. The one player to stand out most has been 2019 first-round pick Brian Burns, with 25 pressures (next-best is 12) and three sacks (tied for the team-best). Burns has a 90.6 pass-rushing grade from Pro Football Focus (PFF), which ranks first among edge defenders and third among all defensive linemen, trailing Aaron Donald and Chris Jones. Burns has been nothing short of spectacular and he will be a player to watch in this one. However, as shown earlier, they need others to help pick up the slack alongside him. Who will do it? Rookie first-round pick Derrick Brown? Rookie second-round pick Jeremy Chinn? The typically-great Tre Boston? They'll need some if not all of these players to help out Burns on Sunday if they want a shot.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Panthers 20.

I think this game might be more interesting than we all would think. With Teddy Bridgewater, McCaffrey, Anderson, Moore, Burns and others, the Panthers have some players with the potential to make big-time plays. I think the Panthers get some good moments in there, but as always, Patrick Mahomes takes the game over and the Chiefs take a two-to-three score lead as the opposition tries to claw back.

For more Kansas City Chiefs analytics and analysis, follow @SIChiefs and @WichitaChiefSam on Twitter.


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Sam Hays
SAM HAYS

Sam Hays studies at Wichita State University in Kansas and contributes to Arrowhead Report on SI.com. Sam also collects data for Pro Football Focus. Follow Sam on Twitter @WichitaChiefSam.

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