NFL Head Coach Rankings: Respect for Commanders Ron Rivera?
Only 32 men in the world hold the title of NFL head coach. And the position is as thankless as it is hard to come by.
Fans and media outlets alike have their own opinions of what makes a coach great as opposed to just good, as well as which one is better than the next.
Pro Football Focus decided to take a different approach with regard to comparing and ranking the coaches in the league. In its latest list, PFF tried to account for each team's talent level while also trying to predict something other than wins.
They created a model where each starter on both sides of the ball was considered, as well as if that player is a rookie or not, with the target being figuring out points scored or allowed during a season for each roster.
The coaches are the random effect, giving an estimate for their contribution to points scored or allowed. PFF then used Pythagorean wins to estimate how many games the coach would win with an average team, defined as a team scoring and allowing 348 points in a season. This was the average mark for all teams between the 2017-2021 seasons.
The ranking does not consider coach's results from before 2011, nor does it include first-time head coaches, so Josh McDaniels, Brian Daboll, Matt Eberflus, Nathaniel Hackett, Mike McDaniel and Kevin O'Connell are not included.
Confused yet? Let's just get to the data...
PFF broke the rankings down to tiers, including Hall of Fame Coaches, Good Coaches, Average Coaches, and Room for Improvement.
Washington Commanders coach Ron Rivera was included with the Tier 3: Average Coaches.
18. RON RIVERA, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (8.8 – 8.2 RECORD WITH AVERAGE ROSTER)
Offensive Rank: 16/26 (+18 points scored a season)
Defensive Rank: 19/26 (+7 points allowed a season)
Despite Rivera learning as a defensive coordinator early in his coaching career, his defensive success as a head coach appears to be largely the product of his teams’ talent levels. Determining how much of a part he played in developing that talent is outside of this article’s scope.
Pro Football Focus NFL Coaches Rankings
Apparently, the model can't determine if Rivera has any impact on his team's defense, which seems to be the basis and entire purpose of the model.
Where did other NFC East coaches appear on the ranking? Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy made the top 10 at No. 10, Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni was No. 14, and Brian Daboll, the Giants new coach, was excluded as a first-year coach.
But nothing is more accurate than the old-fashioned eyeball test. And using that test, Rivera will have his work cut out for him both offensively and defensively in 2022.
