What Could the Dolphins Get for Pick 21?

The Miami Dolphins could be looking to regain a pick in the third or fourth round in the 2024 NFL draft

One of the many scenarios for the Miami Dolphins in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft is trading down.

The rationale is moving down a half-dozen slots or so in the first round wouldn't prevent the Dolphins from still landing a top prospect but would help them make up for the lack of a third- or fourth-round pick, which were lost because of the NFL sanctions for tampering and as part of the Bradley Chubb trade of 2022, respectively.

But what could the Dolphins realistically expect to get from another team for swapping places in the bottom third of the first round? This is where recent history could provide a hint.

THE TRADES DOWN FROM 21 IN RECENT YEARS

Based on the mathematical numbers offered by the last 16 NFL drafts, when six teams traded down from 21 in the first round, the Dolphins would have a 37.5 percent chance of moving down Thursday night (there could be other statistical factors involved here, but play along here).

Here are the specifics of those six trades to get an idea of the return, which obviously depending on the difference between the top two picks exchanged.

2022 — The New England Patriots moved from 21 to 29 and received from Kansas City third- and fourth-round picks in that draft. The Chiefs had gotten that pick, incidentally, from the Dolphins as part of the Tyreek Hill trade after the Dolphins had acquired it from the San Francisco 49ers. With the 21st pick, the Chiefs selected cornerback Trent McDuffie. With the three picks, the Patriots took guard Cole Strange at 29, QB Matt Corral with the third-round pick, and CB Jack Jones with the fourth-round selection. While Strange has been a starter for the Patriots, McDuffie has been a star for the Chiefs, so they easily won this trade.

2019 — The Seattle Seahawks moved down from 21 to 30 and received from Green Bay two fourth-round selections. The Packers took safety Darnell Savage at 21. The Seahawks took CB Deandre Baker at 30, and guards Dru Samia at 114 in the fourth round and Hjalte Froholdt at 118. This trade worked out much better for Green Bay.

2016 — Washington moved down only one spot, from 21 to 22, and got a seventh-round pick from the Houston Texans for their troubles, with Houston then selected wide receiver Will Fuller, whose NFL career would end with part of one season with the Dolphins in 2021. Washington took fellow WR Josh Doctson at 22 and then fellow wide receiver Robert Davis in the seventh round. This trade ended up a wash, though Fuller was slightly more productive for the Texans than Doctson was for Washington.

2012 — The Cincinnati Bengals moved down from 21 to 27 and got a third-round pick from New England, which then took Chandler Jones with that 21st selection. The Bengals took guard Kevin Zeitler with the 27th pick and defensive tackle Brandon Thompson in Round 3. Thompson never was much of a factor in the NFL, but the argument could be made that Zeitler has had the better career of the two first-round picks.

2011 — The Chiefs moved down from 21 to 26 and got a third-round pick from the Cleveland Browns, who took defensive tackle Phil Taylor. The Chiefs took wide receiver Jon Baldwin at 26 and then outside linebacker Justin Houston, who played for the Dolphins in their playoff game at Kansas City in January, with that third-round pick. Taylor has been the much better player over Baldwin, but Houston made it a good move by K.C.

2008 — This one was complicated and a lot more involved. Washington traded pick 21 along with third- and fifth-round selections to the Atlanta Falcons for two second-round picks (34th and 48th overall) and a fourth-round selection. At pick 21, the Falcons selected tackle Sam Baker. Along with Baker, the Falcons took WR Harry Douglas and OLB Kroy Biermann with the other picks in that trade. Washington left this trade with WR Devin Thomas (34), TE Fred Davis (48) and then traded that fourth-round pick for a later fourth-rounder and a fifth-round selection, then traded the fifth-round selection with a seventh for two sixth-round selections, ending with no players of impact among those Day 3 picks. Big advantage for Atlanta here.

Not including that last trades, the other five teams that traded down from 21st overall moved to an average spot of 27th (26.8, to be precise) and the most recent returns for one of the final four picks of the first round suggests being able to get in return two picks in the third-fourth range.

That's something worth considering for the Dolphins if the opportunity for a trade down arises.