Sunday Dolphins Mailbag: Tua, Penix, Skylar, and More

Is drafting an offensive lineman a must? Is taking a quarterback at any time in the draft a realistic scenario? Tackling those and other Miami Dolphins issues

Part 2 of a Miami Dolphins mailbag on the last weekend before the 2024 NFL draft:

From Earl (via email):

Hello Alain, it is looking like the Dolphins are getting behind the 8-ball on keeping their good draft picks going back to Jarvis Landry, up through Wilkins, Hunt, Van Ginkel and Jones this year. Instead, they've gone out and made the big splash signings for Wallace & Suh and trades for Chubb, Hill and Ramsey that they have to sign to big extensions that suck up the dollars that could have been used for keeping their own picks. Of course they have fewer of those due to the trades and tampering issues and here they are unable to sign Tagovailoa, Waddle, Holland, and Phillips to long-term extensions. and they still haven't won a playoff game. Wat is the solution? It seemed like they were getting out of money trouble when they hired Flores and started the rebuild, but then got impatient and jumped back in the hole. how can they keep their good players if they keep going down the path of pushing the dollars out ahead of this year binding up the money to sign their good picks?

Hey Earl, your points are valid, but does that mean you didn’t want the moves for Hill, Ramsey and Chubb, all of which were made in a push for the Super Bowl? Was the talent on hand good enough to make that kind of push? And we need to understand there’s a price to pay when you “go for it.”

From Brian Z (via email):

Are there any players in this year's draft that you would consider trading up in the first round for? I would say if either, or both Brock Bowers and J.J. McCarthy fall to the 13-21 range, I would consider a move up to grab them. Why? Bowers is a game-changing tight end. Look to either the Chiefs or the 49ers as to how a game-changing tight end can take a really good time deeper into the playoffs. McCarthy. Mostly because Tua is on the fifth-year option. I look back at how Tom Brady never played for over $25 million per season because he wanted the team to be stronger around him. If Tua signs for $25 mil per, then I want him.  If he wants 40-50 per, I hate to say it since I like him, but I don't think I want him for that much.  With McCarthy we have 4-5 years of him for cheap. With the weapons we have, any QB will be better, and they are playing for 10 mil per, we can get even more weapons.

Hey Brian, let’s start by saying you can pretty much forget about McCarthy because the Dolphins keep telling everyone they’re all in on Tua and he also will get more than $25 million annually — way more. I like your idea with Bowers, but don’t see that happening, either, in part because of the cost involved to move up but also because the Dolphins offense centers around Hill and Waddle, so they wouldn’t maximize Bowers the way the 49ers and Chiefs do with Kittle and Kelce.

From Luis Rodriguez (@Elfrijo3232):

If Tua gets a 3-year extension and Fins make the playoffs 3 of next 4 years w/one AFC championship appearance, and two wild card exits, would the extension have been worth it?

Hey Luis, that’s a very interesting hypothetical scenario you present. It’s also probably a better question for the fans. I also need to know under your hypothetical what kind of role Tua would play in making the playoffs and in coming up short in the playoffs.

From Pajake Japat (@D1nonlyJP):

Would you agree that if Tua and the Dolphins fail to make a Super Bowl run in the next 2 years...Grier should be fired?

Hey Pajake, no, I don’t agree with that blanket statement. Any evaluation would have to take all the circumstances involved.

From Sean Meachem (@beachbob1):

Thanks as always for taking our questions. Any current players that might get traded during or after the draft? Any players we might trade for?

Hey Sean, there have been no rumblings of any Dolphins players who could be on the move or vice versa. It’s certainly not like last year when the Dolphins clearly would have moved Cedrick Wilson Jr. had they been able to. They don’t have that kind of player this year.

From Jon J. Vogel (@JonJVogel):

If you had to compare Tua to one Expos player, who would it be? My comp would be Larry Walker. They let him walk because they thought he was at his apex, didn't want to pay him, and never appreciated the player he COULD be. Sometimes, the best things are right in front of you.

Hey Jon, your question would be more interesting and valid if the facts actually were accurate. So let me correct you: The Expos traded Walker for the sole and only reason that the baseball operations team was given a mandate by ownership to massively slash payroll in the 1995 offseason after the strike of 1994 killed the Expos’ best chance of winning the World Series. It had ZERO to do with Walker, who already was an absolute star and everyone knew was only going to get better. And it wasn’t just Walker that the Expos dumped that miserable offseason, it also was star starting pitcher Ken Hill, star closer John Wetteland and star center fielder Marquis Grissom. Hope that helps.

From Isaias Boffill (@BoffillIsaias):

What was the best game you ever covered as a Dolphins beat writer?

Hey Isaias, the one that obviously comes to mind is the 2000 playoff win against the Colts, but I also would throw in the “Miracle in Miami” and the Monday night shocker against the Patriots in December 2004.

From Jason Kirkland (@1bigdad424):

Alain, great job, as always. How nauseous would you be going into the season with Liam starting at RG? I'm at 9.5/10. Also, last season Miami 31st in pass block win rate. Couldn't that explain Tua not getting to 2nd/3rd reads? Thanks!

Hey Jason, I would not be nauseous in the least, while also thinking maybe an upgrade would help. For all the shots they took last year, I didn’t see the offensive line as being a major issue and I’m not sure what to make of that analytics stat of pass block win rate (it’s subjective) because I didn’t see many games where Tua was under siege, which that stat would suggest, understanding that a lot of quick passing certainly helped.

From Mark Lever (@MarkFisfan):

What’s more likely that the Dolphins trade up, trade back or stand put?

Hey Mark, I think I’d put it at 50-50 between trading back and staying put, with trading up a distant third here.

From Brad (@dolphinsgm2019):

Penix is there at 21. You jumping?

Hey Brad, man, that’s a tough one for me, though it won’t be for the Dolphins because they wouldn’t even give him a second look (based on all indications). I would seriously consider it because not only does it provide an alternative if Tua can’t take that next step to help get the Dolphins where they want to go, there’s always value in having a high-end QB on the roster.

From Rich. (@mouldymuffin99):

Love your impartial, stick to what your beliefs are, approach. Q: Thought experiment. Let's imagine Tua gets $50m a year from the Fins. Name the other teams in the league that would pay him that amount of cash to be their QB1.

Hey Rich, first off, thanks. And that’s the big question for the Dolphins, right? Are we going to give him a contract that no other team (or very few) in the NFL would give him? The reality is that Tua has been very successful with the Dolphins because of his ability but also because Mike McDaniel has designed everything with Tua’s specific skill set and it also works because of the stupid speed that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and bring at wide receiver. One big question with Tua is how much success he could have under different circumstances.

From Marc Stevens (@MarcSte52283314):

Hey @PoupartNFL, what are the odds the Miami Dolphins can snag Deebo Samuel from the SF 49ers? I'm asking for a friend... who happens to be every Dolphins fan.

Hey Marc, somewhere between slim and none. First, why would the 49ers trade him? Second, exactly how much money can the Dolphins devote to the wide receiver considering what they’re paying Tyreek Hill and what they’re about to pay Jaylen Waddle?

From Jason (@Jwhat13):

With Mike White and Skylar Thompson obviously not being long term backups in Miami, how high is too high to draft a legit backup/developmental QB this year?

Hey Jason, I’m of the belief you don’t waste a draft pick on a quarterback on a “backup/developmental QB,” only on guys who think could become an NFL starter. You always can find a solid backup in free agency. And, lastly here, I might disagree with your assessment that Mike White couldn’t be a long-term backup. So, no, I would not advocate for spending a draft pick on a QB unless there was someone with a unique skill that could give him a chance or who flies under the radar.