Defensive (and Special Teams) Thoughts Before Week 17
As they head into Week 17 with a chance to clinch a playoff berth, the Miami Dolphins also will be looking to end the 2020 season leading the NFL in fewest points allowed.
That obviously would be a huge accomplishment considering they were at the other extreme last year when they allowed a league-high 494 points.
The Dolphins have allowed 282 points through their first 15 games, six fewer than the Pittsburgh Steelers and seven fewer than the Los Angeles Rams.
Going from worst to first in points allowed would be a first in the NFL, but barring unforeseen circumstances the Dolphins regardless will establish a new standard for one-year defensive scoring turnaround.
Going back to when the league switched to a 16-game schedule in 1978, no team that finished last in defensive scoring finished higher than fifth the following season — that was accomplished by the 2018 Houston Texans, who allowed 316 points one year after allowing 436.
Rounding out the top five in fewest points allowed in 2020 after Miami (282), Pittsburgh (288) and the Rams (289) are the Baltimore Ravens (300) and the Washington Football Team (315).
Those 2018 Texans are one of four teams able to finish in the top 10 in scoring defense the year after finishing last, along with the 1986 Atlanta Falcons (6th), the 2001 St. Louis Rams (7th) and the 2002 Indianapolis Colts (7th).
-- That dramatic turnaround by the Dolphins certainly should make defensive coordinator Josh Boyer among the leading candidates for the Assistant Coach of the Year award, though he'll have a lot of competition for that honor.
-- The Dolphins have led the NFL in scoring defense five previous times — in 1972, 1973, 1982, 1983 and 1998.
-- The key to the Dolphins defense success has been situational football combined with the ability to create turnovers. The most important stat just might be the Dolphins' success on third down, with Miami ranked first in third-down defense. The Dolphins are seeking to become the sixth team since 2000 to lead the NFL in both scoring defense and third-down defense, as they seek to join the 2006 Baltimore Ravens, 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2009 New York Jets, 2017 Minnesota Vikings and 2019 New England Patriots.
-- But here's the stat we need to add, not to be a downer but merely to point out this defense still has room for improvement: The Dolphins are 20th in total yards allowed, putting them in position to become the first team since 2001 to lead the NFL in defensive scoring without fielding a top 10 defense in terms of yardage allowed.
-- For those pushing for Xavien Howard to become NFL Defensive Player of the Year — and he's certainly got a strong case — this is where he's going to get hurt in his quest to beat out either Aaron Donald of the Rams and T. J. Watt of the Steelers. While the Rams and Steelers have given up less than 10 points more than the Dolphins, they're first and second in the NFL in total defense, respectively. The odds heading into Week 17 had Watt as the overwhelming favorite (per BetOnline.ag) at 2/5 with Donald second at 2/1 and Howard third at 9/1.
-- And for those comparing Howard season to the 2019 performance that won Stephon Gilmore the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award — and, yes, he's been just as good, if not better — remember that the Patriots last season not only finished first in scoring defense and third-down defense but total defense as well.
RELATED: No Understating the Season Howard Is Putting Together
-- The previous note should not in any way take away from Howard's brilliant season, which he only enhanced against the Raiders last week even though he didn't get an interception. His coverage against rookie Henry Ruggs III in that game was nothing short of superb.
-- At the very least, Howard should be a shoo-in for first-team All-Pro honors. And, as we suggested earlier this week, kicker Jason Sanders should join him there.
-- This Week 17 matchup against the Bills will bring back memories of the earlier game at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 2 when Josh Allen destroyed the Dolphins secondary, though it absolutely needs to be mentioned that Byron Jones left that game after four snaps. The Dolphins then decided to match rookie Noah Igbinoghene against veteran Stefon Diggs, a battle that would be tough for any cornerback, let alone a rookie playing his second NFL game. If Diggs does end up playing Sunday, he's going to find things a lot more difficult in the secondary.
-- Linebacker Jerome Baker is low-key having a tremendous season. And here's the statistical proof: With one game left, he's already become only the sixth player in the NFL since 2010 with at least 100 tackles and seven sacks in a season, joining James Harrison (2010), Daryl Washington (2012), Lavonte David (2013), Darius Leonard (2018) and Devin White (2020).
