Examining Grier's Draft Tendencies And How They Could Apply in 2024

Miami Dolphins GM Chris Grier has shown an affinity for certain types of players in the draft

The Miami Dolphins are scheduled to have a first-round selection for the first time since 2021 and six overall selections in the 2024 NFL draft, which kicks off Thursday.

General manager Chris Grier and the Dolphins currently own picks 21st and 55th to begin the process. They are without a third and fourth at the moment, making those first two picks even more crucial for immediate impact.

Grier officially became the Dolphins general manager in 2016, though constructing a blueprint in his own vision arguably started in 2019 after former senior vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum left the team.

Since that time, Grier has developed some tendencies, tendencies that maybe could help provide clues as to who the Dolphins might target in the early rounds of the 2024 draft.

GRIER LIKES COLLEGE WINNERS

Since 2019 through last year’s draft, Grier has loved looking at collegiate champions. If you want to start in 2019, when he began what has been referred to as a “rebuild,” Grier ran off a trend that stopped last season when he only held four picks.

From 2019 through 2022, Grier has included as a member of the college championship team from the same year in his draft class. This began with Christian Wilkins in 2019 from Clemson and their title season.

In 2020, Grier selected a collegiate champ in LSU long-snapper Blake Ferguson. A draft later, Alabama returned to their winning ways, and Grier went with Jaylen Waddle in round 1. In 2022’s draft, Georgia Bulldogs linebacker Channing Tindall was Grier’s initial pick. Georgia won back-to-back titles, yet in 2023, Grier went with a fellow SEC product in South Carolina’s Cam Smith as his opening selection in Round 2.

This trend actually started when Grier first became GM, with the Dolphins selecting RB Kenyan Drake from national champion Alabama in 2016, CB Cordrea Tankersley from national champion Clemson in 2017, and DB Minkah Fitzpatrick from national champion Alabama in 2018.

The SEC is, of course, a known well of talent for Grier, especially in the first round. Grier has made nine first-round selections since 2016, six of which were from the powerhouse conference. However, in 2023, the Michigan Wolverines won the national championship, and they have many prospects in this draft.

Grier loves using premium capital on SEC or Power 5 programs. Since 2016, 46 of his 55 selections have been from Power 5 schools. When looking at the first two rounds of the draft, the first round is a safe bet for Grier to go from that Power 5 farm. Even in the second round, Grier has shown a consistent trend toward looking at helmets in addition to prospects under them.

Recently departed Robert Hunt from the University of Louisiana was the only second-round pick of Grier’s that came from outside of the power conferences. Hunt was selected 39th overall by Grier and the Dolphins in the 2020 draft.

Of the other eight non-power five prospects Grier has selected, Rutger’s Leonte Carroo was the next-highest, selected in Round 3 in 2016 at 86th overall. Looking at the nine other minor school prospects, Grier made a win of a pick in Robert Hunt. The only other small school “hit” of Grier’s in the draft can be kicker Jason Sanders, a 2018 seventh-round selection from New Mexico.

Most fliers from small schools were misses like sixth-round quarterback Brandon Doughty from Western Kentucky in 2016, Ohio linebacker Quentin Poling in the 2018 seventh round, and Malcolm Perry from Navy in 2020. Most recently, Grier took lineman Larnel Coleman of Massachusetts in the 2021 seventh round.

Day three could have a pick or two from those smaller programs, as Miami has picks in the fifth, a pair of sixth, and a seventh. The first two rounds should be power five, and it would be no surprise to see a Wolverines player among their initial few picks.

POTENTIAL DOLPHINS TARGETS BASED ON GRIER TENDENCIES

A prime candidate in this regard, in a position of need, would be Kris Jenkins. A potential replacement for Christian Wilkins, Grier could literally come full circle from 2019. As Wilkins, another free agent departure, leaves a hole on the defensive line, it could be perfect. Wilkins’ replacement is a carbon copy in size and frame and a current collegiate champion with leadership ability.

The Dolphins could also be in the wide receiver market. Roman Wilson is a versatile target who could be a ready-made slot man for Miami. His talents and performance at the combine could place him within the top 50 picks. If available at pick 55, Miami could consider him.

With nearly a dozen Wolverines potentially selected among the league’s 32 teams, Miami has needs several positions that could be addressed. A few offensive linemen, a tight end, and even a wide receiver could be in play on Day three.

A.J. Barner is a solid blocking tight end, and at 6-6 could move the needle in helping move the chains in the run game. Cornelius Johnson is a later-round prospect to target as a taller wide receiver at 6-3. He could be a red-zone threat and a fine third-target option.

On the offensive line, the Wolverines have had some outstanding units recently. Even last year, Grier selected tackle Ryan Haynes in the seventh round. One of his former linemates could rejoin him. Perhaps guards Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan or tackle Trente Jones. Throw in center Drake Nugent as another day-three option for any team that could use depth in the pivot.