Revisiting Instant Grades for Recent Dolphins Drafts

How the Miami Dolphins' recent drafts were graded immediately compared to how they look now

In a few hours, the 2024 NFL draft will begin with the Chicago Bears on the clock at number 1. The Miami Dolphins are scheduled to pick 21st overall.

Looking back at draft grades from media outlets in recent years, here is an exercise for cautioning against instant overreaction.

REVISITING THE INSTANT 2023 DOLPHINS DRAFT GRADES

Without a first-round pick in 2023, Miami selected South Carolina cornerback Cam Smith at pick number 51. General manager Chris Grier followed that pick with third-round running back De’Von Achane.

The two were polar opposites in rookie production, with Achane an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate, while Smith saw the least snaps from any second-round player last year.

Grier’s other two picks in 2023 were underwhelming at best. He selected Stanford wide receiver Elijah Higgins, only to be traded after an attempt at a tight end conversion. Grier’s fourth and last pick was Michigan offensive tackle Ryan Hayes in the seventh round. Hayes was relegated to the practice squad during the 2023 season.

At the time of last year’s draft, Sports Illustrated’s Matt Verderame wasn’t sold on the class, giving it a (D+). The New York Post’s Ryan Dunleavy agreed initially, calling Achane a “strange choice.” Other negative grades came from DraftKings’ Pete Hernandez, calling the Smith pick a “head-scratcher.”

The Ringer’s Danny Kelly was pretty accurate in one appraisal, stating in his 2023 post-draft recap, “I’m completely serious when I say that the Dolphins could have walked away from this draft with only running back De'Von Achane, and I would have called this class a success.” He gave the class a (B) as a whole.

Yet his initial reaction to Smith is a case in point for this study. “I am also a fan of South Carolina cornerback Cam Smith…”

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar spilt in his initial thoughts, saying, “Cam Smith is an NFL-ready cornerback who is just as good in off-coverage as he is in press; he does everything well with no real liabilities.”

Farrar also said, “And for a team that under head coach Mike McDaniel wants to put a track team on the field on offense, Devon Achane is a literal perfect fit, as his track background shows up all over the field.” He gave the team draft a (C+) grade.

There were positive grades from reputable outlets such as Fox Sports (B+), NFL.com (B-), and The Sporting News from the 2023 class.

REVISITING THE INSTANT 2022 DOLPHINS DRAFT GRADES

Looking back at 2022, again with just four picks due to the Tyreek Hill trade, Grier started out in the third round with Georgia linebacker Channing Tindall. He went with wide receiver Erik Ezukanma from Texas Tech in the fourth, yet neither he nor Tindall has consistently contributed.

The grades here ranged from an A-minus by USA Today to a D-plus from SB Nation. Sports Illustrated’s Conor Orr gave the 2022 class a C after the weekend, stating that while a “small class,” the picks did “surprise” him.

ESPN’s Mel Kiper, Jr. gave the group a B-minus saying, “Channing Tindall (102) could be a steal.”

REVISITING THE INSTANT 2021 DOLPHINS DRAFT GRADES

The 2021 draft was successful for the Dolphins overall, hitting on first-rounders Jaylen Waddle at sixth and Jaelan Phillips at 18th. Jevon Holland in the second round at 36th was one of the team’s better day two picks in recent memory, but the other second-rounder, Liam Eichenberg, in a trade up at 42nd hasn't panned out as well.

Early reports about Eichenberg were very solid out of Notre Dame, but he has yet to own a solidified starting job and has bounced around the Miami offensive line since his rookie year.

The last three remaining picks for Miami are all no longer Dolphins. Hunter Long was traded to the Los Angeles Rams as part of the Jalen Ramsey deal, and Larnel Coleman and Gerrid Doaks combined for one game played in their Miami careers as seventh-round selections.

Regardless of what happened with the back end of the draft, 2021’s class was graded as a consensus top-four across NFL media.

With grades from well over 20 outlets and reporters, 2021 was very favorable for the Dolphins in an immediate sense. In this class’s case, the grades in the metaphorical classroom carried onto the real playing field.

There was only one grade lower than a B-minus in 2021 among this group above, and it was a C-plus from NBC Sports Edge. Sports Illustrated’s Orr gave the class an A-minus and Pro Football Focus went A-plus.

REVISITING THE INSTANT 2020 DOLPHINS DRAFT GRADES

Getting deeper into the cautionary tale of draft grading, 2020 was interesting to look back and see some initial reaction grades. As the draft concluded, a CBS Sports report card had D+ grades for Raekwon Davis and Brandon Jones, while Curtis Weaver received an A+ from the same writer.

Davis and Jones each signed free agency deals with new teams for a few million dollars a year apiece, and Weaver was a camp cut.

The exact same report card had an A+ grade for jettisoned cornerback Noah Igbinoghene and a C- for Austin Jackson. Tua Tagovailoa was given a B, and new Carolina Panthers guard Robert Hunt got a B-.

NFL.com’s Dan Parr gave the Dolphins 2020 class an A- — three of the 11 selections are still with Miami: Tagovailoa, Jackson, and long-snapper Blake Ferguson.

In his article following this draft, Parr said, “I'm a fan of the risk they were willing to take with their first selection. Tagovailoa 's potential was too great to pass up, even with the injury concerns.”

Parr had a mixed bag of a retro-review with the middle picks in the class, saying, “The Igbinoghene pick foreshadowed the Dolphins' theme for Day 2 of the draft, as the master plan of adding tough, physical, powerful talent was fully revealed with the selections of Hunt, Davis and Jones.”

Parr had a glowing review of a miss, saying, “Big fan of the work they did on the defensive line on Day 3, landing a Senior Bowl standout (Jason Strowbridge) and a potential steal in [Curtis] Weaver…”

REVISITING THE INSTANT 2019 DOLPHINS DRAFT GRADES

A year earlier, the 2019 class was half the size. Christian Wilkins was the 13th overall pick followed by Michael Dieter in Round 3. The Dolphins traded their second-round pick to acquire quarterback Josh Rosen from the Arizona Cardinals. There was no fourth-rounder as well as being out of the second round, Grier selected Andrew Van Ginkel in the fifth.

The rest of the class was offensive lineman Isaiah Prince, and a pair of seventh-rounders in the backfield in fullback Chandler Cox and running back Myles Gaskin.

None remain on the current roster after Wilkins and Van Ginkel took free agent deals with Las Vegas and Minnesota, respectively.

As for the grades back in April of 2019, in an SI.com piece written by Andy Benoit he gave the Dolphins an A, saying, “Interestingly, Christian Wilkins, though a highly regarded first-round talent, doesn’t completely fit this profile. Wilkins’s game is built more on movement than force.”

Staying on Wilkins, the rest of the media world spoke a bit higher of the Clemson product. Walter Football, a popular draft scouting source gave the Wilkins pick an A, saying, “The Dolphins just picked a high-character player who was a team captain at his school…This is a great pick that must be in the 'A' range, as Wilkins will be able to replace Ndamukong Suh’s production.

The Ringer’s Danny Kelly had a solid B rating, yet also was early on what initially was a knock on Wilkins. “The former Tiger lacks elite pass-rush upside and doesn’t possess rare traits in any particular category, but he’s as solid a three-down interior tackle as they come.”

REVISITING THE INSTANT 2018 DOLPHINS DRAFT GRADES

Looking back at 2018, just two remain Dolphins in fourth round tight end Durham Smythe and kicker Jason Sanders. Recently released linebacker Jerome Baker was a third-round pick, and former 2022 franchise-tagged tight end Mike Gesicki was a second-round selection.

The first Dolphins pick overall was Alabama safety, Minkah Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers his second season for a first-round pick, which turned into Austin Jackson.

Mel Kiper, Jr. gave this class a C+, saying specifically of Fitzpatrick, “I thought he was a top-five player in this class, but teams got a little scared because he doesn’t have a true position. He’s a little bit of a tweener who doesn’t have true safety measurables.”

Fitzpatrick has made four Pro Bowls and was named an All-Pro safety three times.

Sports Illustrated’s Andy Benoit gave the class a B, saying after the draft, "Adam Gase’s scheme, which is built around unbalanced 3x1 formations, needs a prominent receiving tight end who can split wide by himself on the backside and make catches—and second-rounder Mike Gesicki is built for that."

They say hindsight is 20/20, and that certainly applies to looking at recent reactions immediately following the last name called. While Mr. Irrelevant’ s name being called closes the process as the final pick, his selection begins the immediate grading process for draft classes.

But as this study shows, proceed with caution when putting stock in grades over the next few days and weeks.