Kelly: 2024 Draft Will Determine How Long Miami's Contending Window Stays Open

The Miami Dolphins can't afford any more Noah Igbinoghene, Cam Smith and Channing Tindall whiffs in the NFL draft

Ever sniff a carton of milk to see how fresh it is a day or two after the expiration date has passed?

Is it safe to use for a bowl of cereal, or as part of an ingredient for a dish? Or will it give you the bubble guts?

If you've never been there, you’ve lived a privileged life, are adverse to taking risks, and probably don’t understand what this Miami Dolphins offseason has been about.

The Dolphins are attempting to extend the life of last year’s all-in — live for today, pay for it tomorrow — approach to building a Super Bowl winner. And to do so they have to make that expired milk stretch in 2024.

While there have been a ton of free agency defections, and cuts designed to clear cap space by removing long-standing starters, General Manager Chris Grier has managed to patch the roster up enough to keep Miami competitive in the AFC for at least one more season.

Or better yet, until Miami starts paying a premium price for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which is usually when salary structures of organizations change.

MIAMI'S REPLACEMENTS ARE SOLID

Tight end Jonnu Smith adds a new element to Miami’s offense, providing a seam-threat weapon who can attack the middle of the field and produce run after the catch yards. 

Maybe Smith’s addition reduces the need for Miami to upgrade the third receiver spot? Or maybe the Dolphins will address that in the draft or the post-draft wave of free agency.

Kendall Fuller is expected to be Xavien Howard’s replacement at cornerback. The hope is that he’ll be more durable and will contribute steady play opposite Jalen Ramsey, especially since Cam Smith, who was drafted in the secondround last year, was supposed to fill that role and has fallen short of expectations so far.

Jordan Poyer’s resume and skill set hints that he’s an upgrade at safety over DeShon Elliott and Brandon Jones. He’s just a bit aged, and the Dolphins lack depth at that position, especially with Jevon Holland's contract expiring at the end of the season.

Jordyn Brooks' productivity in his first four seasons exceeds what Jerome Baker had accomplished at the same point in his career, and Anthony Walker Jr. provides the Dolphins position depth at inside linebacker. So that's a second unit that got upgraded, joining tight end.

Aaron Brewer might not be Connor Williams, whose career might have concluded because of the troublesome knee injury he suffered late last season, but the young center has an athleticism that fits seamlessly into Miami’s wide zone scheme.

Let's hope Brewer is better than the Titans, his former team, believed he was.

Shaq Barrett is an aged, accomplished pass rusher who hopefully still has a season or two left in his body and can ease the likely absence of Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, who likely will be rehabbing their injuries until September and help Miami overcome the defection of Andrew Van Ginkel, who signed with the Minnesota Vikings as a free agent.

Raekwon Davis and Teair Tart have relatively comparable metrics and similar impact in four seasons despite Tart’s 12 fewer starts. And the hope is one or two of the five other defensive linemen who Miami signed to minimum salary deals this offseason can fill the massive void Christian Wilkins’ departure creates.

And Liam Eichenberg and Robert Jones, two holdovers, and newcomer Jack Driscoll, likely will compete to see who replaces Robert Hunt, unless a rookie is added through the draft.

DOLPHINS STILL HAVE ROSTER HOLES TO FILL

While not all of the newcomers are upgrades, all but two roster holes have been filled, preventing Miami from being overwhelmed by thirst heading into this week’s NFL draft.

The hope is that the Dolphins can optimize the team’s top two picks (No. 21 and No. 55) and find youngsters who can become reliable starters, if not stars, in a year or two. 

In my opinion this draft class is critical because it’s needed to replenish the team’s stable of young, developmental talent. 

That means the Dolphins need to exit day three of the draft with a couple of hidden gems, and promising prospects like Van Ginkel, a fifth-round selection in the 2019 draft who become a regular starter, and a handful of undrafted contributors like Robert Jones, who has started 13 games in his previous three seasons with the Dolphins.

What Grier can’t afford to do is throw away picks on players like Noah Igbinoghene, a 2020 first-round bust, or Hunter Long and Channing Tindall, two second-day selections who haven’t proven they are NFL players yet.

Every team has whiffs on draftees, but the franchises that have sustained success — the Ravens, the Eagles, Steelers and Packers — don’t need to patch their roster with free agents. They have a youngster in the holster, watching, learning and ready to blossom when opportunity arises.

In my opinion, the Miami's stable of young talent will determine how long the Dolphins have before the expiration date on this team’s talent base turns sour, and it's time to pour it down the drain.