Saturday Dolphins Mailbag: Tua, Free Agency, and More

Part 1 of the Super Bowl weekend #AllDolphins mailbag:

From Dave (@angryvet59):

When does the great purge of cuts start? Doesn't it look like a lot of one-and-done deals with some aged/coming off injury players because of lousy cap situation? Enjoy the podcast, keep up the great work!

Thanks Dave, let’s begin that I wouldn’t expect a “great purge of cuts” because the one slam dunk (or likely slam dunk) coming before the start of the league year is Emmanuel Ogbah. With those who also could be cut or restructured, I would say it’s a pretty good bet that the Dolphins already have had discussions with some agents to get a lay of the land, so to speak. Under the premise of being “all-in” again in 2024, we absolutely could see a series of one-and-done signings.

From Roger Dodger (@RogerDolfan):

With wholesale changeover in Fins defensive coaching staff and the eventual changeover in Fins player on both offense and defense because of cap space, is this the beginning of a rebuild season? And, if so, is Grier the GM you trust to make these changes being his 4th rebuild? … With the great success of Love and Stroud, should Fins start looking for Tua replacement? Just in case he struggles during his 5th year option? Or will Ross, Grier and McDaniel die on the Tua cross?

Hey Roger, no, I don’t believe this will be a “rebuild” season because they still can maintain most, if not all, of their front-line players before having to make sacrifices because of the cap. As for the ever-popular Tua question, I don’t believe the Dolphins are ready to give up on him and start looking for a replacement.

From Mark Lever (@MarkFinsfan):

Top free agent you want us to sign this offseason?

Hey Mark, understanding to throwing big money at any free agent is going to be difficult, the names that jump out to me would be LB Lavonte David, LB Devin White, LB Patrick Queen (maybe he wants to follow Anthony Weaver to Miami) or a CB like Michael Davis (really good in 2022 before he slumped last season) or Chidobe Awuzie. My long-shot name is LB/S Isaiah Simmons, who was a draft crush of mine in 2020.

From mr. mojo risin’ (@dennisgriffin7):

As it's been 50 years since Fins won Super Bowl, what do you think will come first : A) Dolphins win a Super Bowl B) Humans on Mars

Hey Dennis, I feel your pain, partner. It has indeed been a long time. It’s also been more than 30 years since the Dolphins reached the AFC Championship Game and 23 since a playoff win. So I say baby steps here.

From Shaun Braley (@shaunbraley):

In your opinion, what are the non-negotiable foundational positions that need to have top end players for a team to be good? Where do the Dolphins stand in those positions to you?

Hey Shaun, the key positions always are QB, WR, OT, pass rusher and CB. I don’t know if I would call Tua is top-end QB, to be honest; the Dolphins are good at WR and at OT (even with Armstead’s injury issues), pass rusher and CB (though not anymore if Xavien Howard winds up as a post-June 1 cap casualty).

From César Raul Bogosian (@cesar_bogosian):

If you could trade for one player (except Tua) that you think could take you to the Super Bowl, who would it be?

Hey Cesar, I’m confused a bit, I’m assuming you mean trading for any player except one to replace Tua. That being the assumption, I’d want to get a stud cornerback or an all-around impact linebacker.

From Jeff (via email):

Hello Alain, let's say the Dolphins like Tua, maybe like-like Tua, but given the history of the past few decades there is some caution there toward overcommittal. If Tua was given a 2-year deal, which was designed to remove or minimize his cap hit this year as opposed to a long-term contract, how low could that take his number for this upcoming season?

Hey Jeff, understand that Tua already is guaranteed $23 million in 2024 and that is all going against the cap. The issue here is what Tua would be willing to sign for as opposed to simply playing on the fifth-year option. Without going through all the mental gymnastics, I think his cap number easily could have been halved, but then the second-year cap number would be higher because, again, Tua isn’t giving up guaranteed money just to. Accommodate the Dolphins.

From Bill Whitten (via email):

When evaluating Tua for a contract extension, a useful lens is to see what his true “market value” might be. I think there are only a handful of teams that would consider acquiring him at anywhere close to a theoretical “top 5” price. His actual marketability might be quite limited and I just don’t see the NFL breaking down the door to grab Tua. Atlanta or LV with their domes are the main two. Pitt, Denver, Seattle & (God forbid) NE all need QB upgrades, but all play in bad weather at home. Perhaps Washington or Tenn might not have faith in their young QBs, but have the same weather issues. A dark horse might be Minnesota if they could move Cousins. Other teams, like Tampa or the Saints might have interest, but only at a bargain price. Miami should extend him, but only with a very team-friendly contract (heavy with performance bonuses rather than base salary). Build in escalator clauses if he hits the performance targets.

Hey Bill, the question to me always has been what kind of long-term commitment want or should make to Tua, rather than how much money to pay him. And also understand that Tua also already is guaranteed $23.2 million for 2024, so he’s not about to take a “team-friendly” contract if he’s not satisfied with it.

From Bubba (@bubbakeez):

I know you really wanted R. Smith at LB. Which ILB would YOU like to go after in Free Agency? And who do you believe the Dolphins will go after?

Hey Bubba, yes, I really wanted Roquan Smith at linebacker because he’s one of those rare difference-makers at ILB. As I look at the free agents available, the two guys from Tampa Bay — Devin White and Lavonte David — jump out to me and I think David is a good fit because he shouldn’t be too costly at 34 years old and he’s also from Miami. Patrick Queen blossomed with the Ravens last season and would be a great addition, but I have to think Baltimore will do what it can to keep him. As for who they might go after, I’d keep an eye on Azeez Al-Shaair of the Titans, who played for new Dolphins OLB coach Ryan Crow in Tennessee last season and before that was with the 49ers.

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