Chicago Bears Top Pick: Draft Bust or Rookie of The Year Candidate

Drafted first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, Williams arrives in the Windy City with a trophy case overflowing with accolades and a reputation as the future of the franchise, but do odds makers think he will be a bust or excel.

Nov 18, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) scrambles during the second quarter against the UCLA Bruins at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports / Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

There are lofty expectations for No .1 overall pick Caleb Williams. As we look back at his college career, it was nothing short of phenomenal. He shattered school records, racking up Heisman, Walter Camp, and Maxwell Awards – prestigious honors reserved for the nation's most elite quarterbacks.

Caleb Williams College Career

At Oklahoma during his freshman year, Williams dual-threat ability was evident with a school-record 382 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

After transferring to USC, during his 2022 sophomore season. he led the nation in passing touchdowns (42) and ranked near the top in passing yards and efficiency. During his junior and final collegiate year in 2023, Williams ranked in the top 10 in the FBS with a passing efficiency of 170.1, with 30 passing touchdowns, 9.4 yards per attempt, and 3,633 passing yards while completing 266 of 388 passes for a 68.6% completion rate with only five picks. He also led his the Trojans with 11 rushing touchdowns, amassing 121 yards on 99 carries. Williams started 12 games last season, solidifying his reputation as a reliable, consistent and dynamic performer.

But rookie QB's that start for their team right away, generally face a myriad of challenges, including usually playing for a team that had a dreadful prior year to draft a high caliber QB near the top of the draft, are likely rebuilding their roster, lack talent particularly along the offense line, and may have a new coaching staff and front office.

But the Bears situation is quite different. They were not drafting first overall in 2024 because of their poor record (7-10), instead it was via a prior year 2023 blockbuster trade when the Bears obtained the Carolina Panthers' first-round pick in 2024 with Bears General Manager Ryan Poles dealing the No. 1 selection in the 2023 draft in exchange for receiver DJ Moore, 2023 first- and second-round picks, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2024 first-round choice... that turned out to be No. 1 overall used to select Williams.

Further, the Bears also selected at No 9 in round 1 and chose a reliable and dynamic partner for Williams in WR Rome Odunze from Washington.

Related: Complete List Of Chicago Bears 2024 NFL Draft Picks

Nevertheless, Caleb certainly walks into a treacherous situation in Chicago, with the Bears going 7-10 and attempting to rebuild while flying the plane for the third year of the Coach Matt Eberflus and GM Ryan Poles era. Those leaders made the questionable decision to move on from QB Justin Fields, who the Bears chose in the 1st round with the 11th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft.

Do the oddsmakers feel that Williams will be a first round bust, or succeed and capture rookie of the year honors?

Williams Ranked At The Top for Offensive Rooke of The Year

Fanduel has Williams as the favorite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Williams is currently set at +170 meaning a $100 successful bet would return $170. His odds have him as the most likely to have a successful rookie season and rank him as the 1st overall rookie to win OPOY.

Nov 11, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) scores a touchdown during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Offensive Rookie of Year Odds

Rookie	Position	Team	Odds To Win Offensive Rookie Of The Year
Caleb Williams	QB	Chicago Bears	+170
Jayden Daniels	QB	Washington Commanders	+600
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	Arizona Cardinals	+700
J.J. McCarthy	QB	Minesota Vikings	+1400
Malik Nabers	WR	New York Giants	+1400
Xavier Worthy	WR	Kansas City Chiefs	+2000
Bo Nix	QB	Denver Broncos	+2000
Drake Maye	QB	New England Patriots	+2000
Keon Coleman	WR	Buffalo Bills	+2500

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