Top 10 Dynasty QBs for 2021
With just more than a month until the first game of the NFL football season, the NFL Draft Bible team has been putting the final touches on our positional dynasty rankings. We will have weekly updates throughout the season, helping to prepare you for your dynasty leagues. Some of these may come as a surprise, but our rankings are a consensus of some of the best minds in the industry.
In this article, we will discuss our top ten quarterbacks going into the 2021 season.
10. Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars OVR: 91.25
There is a lot of excitement around the first pick in the NFL Draft when it comes to dynasty formats. Since he became the starter at Clemson, Lawrence is a name that dynasty players have been paying close attention to. This ranking shows how high he is regarded before even taking a snap in the NFL, however, his success early in his career will ultimately be tied to Urban Meyer’s ability to make the adjustment to being an NFL coach. The 2021 quarterback draft class is going to be what Lawrence is compared to, his success versus the other names coming into the league this season will have a large impact on his perceived values in dynasty leagues.
9. Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals OVR: 79.25
Burrow was an exciting player coming into the league last year and before his injury, there were flashes of an exciting player in his rookie season. The Bengals added a familiar face for Burrow to work within the NFL Draft when they selected Ja’Marr Chase in the first round. The offense has several weapons now to allow Burrow to succeed, the biggest hurdle for him now is staying healthy behind the Bengals offensive line which rated as one of the worst in the NFL in 2020. The Bengals invested in the line thos offseason and will need to see a dramatic improvement there, Burrow is an exciting player but needs to stay upright to pay off for fantasy.
8. Deshaun Watson – Houston Texans OVR: 76
Unfortunately, the items impacting the value of Watson in fantasy going into 2021 are largely focused on items off the field. The potential impending legal action and possible suspension area lingering unknown on the minds of dynasty players. This is coupled with the issues between Watson and the team and the questionable moves the front office in Houston continues to make. The lack of weapons at Watson’s disposal on this roster makes the potential of being traded to a better situation appealing for fantasy owners. As long as Watson remains in Houston, he will need Nico Collins to emerge to climb back into the elite level of dynasty quarterbacks.
7. Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks OVR: 76
Wilson is a great quarterback, but the biggest threat to his fantasy value continues to be the preference of the coaching staff to be a run-heavy offense. Wilson has the talent if he was ever fully unleashed to challenge for the top fantasy quarterback, but that is not how things are handled in Seattle. Wilson’s efficiency throwing the ball will continue to support his fantasy value, but how the team operates keeps a ceiling on his production. In 2020, Wilson started the season on fire, primarily due to an unsustainable touchdown rate of 10.61%. Once that cooled off, Wilson was no longer the fantasy superstar, which is a concern for his value moving forward.
6. Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers OVR: 68.50
Herbert had an unexpected breakout in 2020, especially considering the circumstances that led to him taking over the starting role. The Chargers as a team are hoping to take a step forward in 2021, and the development of Herbert is a part of that plan. The one thing that could hurt Herbert from a fantasy perspective is the Chargers’ defense being healthy and better could lower his ceiling. In 2020 Herbert was fourth in pass attempts, but a better defense could allow more balance in the Charger offense. It is entirely possible Herbert improves as an NFL quarterback but regresses as a fantasy asset.
5. Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys OVR: 65.50
Before he was hurt, Prescott was on an incredible pace in 2020 for fantasy football. While those numbers might not have been sustainable, Prescott has shown that he is a reliable fantasy option over his career. He does not have a high interception rate for this career, his touchdown rate and completion percentage has been stable, and he is surrounded by the most talented wide receiver core in his career. CeeDee Lamb is an exciting young player who will have another year of development, Amari Cooper is a talented player, and Michael Gallup is one of the best number three wide receivers in the NFL. Prescott is a player who can find himself challenging for the number one quarterback in fantasy any given season.
4. Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens OVR: 55.25
Jackson is a player that still has a lot to prove as a passer in the NFL. He has a historic season in 2019 that will be hard to replicate from a fantasy point of view. That season, his touchdown rate was an unsustainable nine percent, and he set the NFL record for rushing yards for a quarterback. In 2020, he regressed in both areas and could have been viewed as a disappointment for fantasy. The Ravens have attempted to add more weapons in the passing game around him. It is up to Jackson to show he has more value than what he provides with his legs.
3. Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals OVR: 50.50
Murray has been an exciting player since he came into the league. He was impressive as a rookie and improved in basically every way in his second year. The Cardinals made some additions to strengthen their secondary weapons in the passing game behind DeAndre Hopkins going into 2021, which is an exciting prospect for his outlook. The concern for his fantasy value is the 11 rushing touchdowns in 2020 not being repeatable. Murray will need to take the next step as a passer to improve on his fantasy season from a year ago. Unlike Lamar Jackson, Murray has shown much more upside producing with his arm.
2. Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills OVR: 50
Allen took a significant step forward in 2020 as a passer. The top end of his range of outcome is reliant on that continuing. The fact that his improvement as a passer and the arrival of Stefon Diggs is not a coincidence. Having a valid number one wide receiver is going to help any young quarterback. Allen will always have a high floor because of his rushing ability and essentially serving as the goal-line back for the Bills. Allen’s rushing and improvement in the passing game raise his ceiling to a point where he has the potential to challenge Mahomes for the top spot, even if the Bills’ offense is unlikely to ever rise to the same level as the Chiefs.
1. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City OVR: 26.5
As long as this Kansas City Chief team does not have significant changes, it is hard to see anyone passing him as the top quarterback in the dynasty rankings. He is a young talented player, with an offensive-minded coach and great weapons on a high-scoring offense. Mahomes will score a lot of fantasy points at a consistent rate for years to come. Mahomes, in his career, has been able to maintain an above-average touchdown rate. If that was only one season, it could be considered an outlier, but there have been players who can maintain this efficiency. So far, Mahomes has given no reason to make anyone think that will change.
