NFL Draft: Is It 2013 All Over Again at the Quarterback Position?
Don’t be Buddy Nix.
The former Buffalo Bills general manager had privately voiced plans to retire following the 2013 NFL Draft, but publicly vowed to install a "franchise quarterback" before leaving his post.
There was one huge problem: The 2013 draft class was not 1983. There was no Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, John Elway or even a Ken O'Brien lookalike among the quarterback crop.
There was certainly no consensus "top" quarterback prospect among draftniks that year.
West Virginia’s Geno Smith was arguably the most-known name in a pool of prospects that also featured Power 5 products Matt Barkley (Southern California) and Mike Glennon (North Carolina State).
In terms of the QB-starved Bills’ approach to that draft, there were media pushing the idea that Syracuse's Ryan Nassib could be the team’s first-round choice. Completely ignoring Nassib's lackluster credentials, these mock-draft designers pointed to the fact that Nassib played for new Bills head coach Doug Marrone in college.
When draft night finally arrived, Nix traded back to No. 16 overall, but then reached for Florida State's EJ Manuel in that spot. The Bills were the lone team to spend a first-round pick on a quarterback that night.
Speaking on a podcast with Inside The League founder Neil Stratton, former Bills front-office executive Doug Whaley revisited the situation.
“At the time, I was Assistant GM, and the GM there was Buddy Nix, and he had talked to me before about, ‘Hey, before I get out of here, I’m going to make sure that we have a quarterback.’
“And unbeknownst to me after the draft, he was going to retire. So I gave you the backdrop of that to say this: don’t ever back yourself into a corner by saying, ‘I want to get a specific position,’ because then you overdraft, which leads to some mistakes. So, EJ Manuel, that was (Nix’s) favorite quarterback out of that draft. He wanted to get him and he didn’t want to lose him."
Manuel showed flashes in his first two seasons with the Bills, but he was wildly inaccurate at times with poor ball placement and questionable decision-making.
The former Florida State Seminole lost a chunk of his rookie season to a knee injury and it seemed he never fully gained the confidence of Marrone, who eventually benched Manuel in favor of Kyle Orton four games into the 2014 campaign.
Manuel's career never really recovered after the benching. He was also unable to win the endorsement of Marrone’s successor – Rex Ryan, who opted to bring in Tyrod Taylor to be the starting signal-caller.
Overall, Manuel posted a 6-11 record as Buffalo's starting quarterback, averaging 5.9 yards per pass attempt while throwing for 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He last appeared in a NFL game in 2017 with the Raiders.
Manuel was not alone though. No quarterback selected in the 2013 draft went on to achieve sustained success as a starter in the league.
Smith and Barkley are still employed in reserve roles, while Glennon is currently an unsigned unrestricted free agent. Collectively, they own a 21-51 record as starting signal-callers since being drafted into the NFL.
With the latest edition of the draft unfolding this week in Las Vegas, history may be repeating itself in 2022.
No, the Bills aren't still searching for a starting signal-caller because they found one at No. 7 overall in the 2018 draft.
For the many QB-needy teams, however, the 2022 class does not seem to present many high-end options.
“Barring a wildly set of strange circumstances, quarterbacks will be void of the top overall selection for the first time in four years. The last non-quarterback selected first overall was defensive end Myles Garrett in 2017,” noted Bo Marchionte in a NFL Draft Bible article entitled “Quarterbacks Aren’t On Par With Previous Classes.”
In terms of top overall talent, this draft does not feature a true media-hyped "can't miss" prospect at any position.
"I just don’t think we have a real consensus at the top of the draft and we’ve had drafts like this before,” said NFL Network personality Brian Baldinger during a guest appearance on NFL Draft Bible’s The State of Football live stream.
“I don’t see Hall of Fame Charles Woodson, Peyton Manning-type players in this draft, but there are a lot of good players and I think it’s deep,” Baldinger opined.
Baldinger did go on to praise the arm talent of Liberty's Malik Willis while also heavily admiring the college career that Kenny Pickett had at Pittsburgh.
Maybe the NFL traits that Baldinger sees in Willis and Pickett are enough to convince a general manager to place that phone call on draft night.
Maybe Pickett is the real deal or maybe he's Nathan Peterman 2.0.
It's hard not to like Pickett's body of work from Pitt or Willis' physical throwing ability, but do those factors out-weigh the questions raised by evaluators?
If a quarterback happens to be the best player available when your team is on the clock, then go for it.
Still, general managers must beware, especially in the first round.
There's a risk of becoming the next Buddy Nix.
2013 NFL Draft QB Class
No. 16 (R1): EJ Manuel, Florida State
Team: Buffalo Bills
Record as NFL Starter: 6-12
No. 39 (R2): Geno Smith (West Virginia)
Team: New York Jets
Record as NFL Starter: 13-21
No. 73 (R3): Mike Glennon, North Carolina State
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record as NFL Starter: 6-25
No. 98 (R4): Matt Barkley, Southern California
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Record as NFL Starter: 2-5
No. 110 (R4): Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
Team: New York Giants
Record as NFL Starter: 0-0
No. 112 (R4): Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
Team: Oakland Raiders
Record as NFL Starter: 0-0
No. 115 (R4): Landry Jones, Oklahoma
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record as NFL Starter: 3-2
No. 221 (R7): Brad Sorenson, Southern Utah
Team: San Diego Chargers
Record as NFL Starter: 0-0
No. 234 (R7): Zac Dysert, Miami (OH)
Team: Denver Broncos
Record as NFL Starter: 0-0
No. 237 (R7): B.J. Daniels, South Florida
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Record as NFL Starter: 0-0
No. 249 (R7): Sean Renfree, Duke
Team: Atlanta Falcons
Record as NFL Starter: 0-0
Follow NFL Draft Bible FCS Insider Ralph Ventre on Twitter (@RealestRalph)
