Falcons' Happy New Year Begins With Sad Old Ending
The Atlanta Falcons' tenure as playoff contenders came to an end, in a somewhat merciful manner in Sunday's 29-15 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
It was the seventh double-digit loss the Falcons suffered this year. Including the Bills, Atlanta played seven playoff-bound teams this season. Against those seven opponents the Falcons were outscored 238-79.
They mustered seven wins in Arthur Smith's first season because the team has capitalized against bad competition. For the most part anyway. The Falcons also have losses to the last-place Carolina Panthers and 6-10 Washington Football Team.
Both at home, no less.
Atlanta's strength of victory, which was already worst in the NFL before Week 17, dropped Sunday to .299. No other NFL team has a strength of victory below .344.
More than half of Atlanta's wins - four - have come against bottom-feeders the Lions, Giants, Jaguars and Jets. As of Sunday evening, those teams hold four of the top five selections in the 2022 NFL Draft.
And thanks to Miami's loss to Tennessee on Sunday, the Falcons again have no wins against a team with a winning record.
Let's be clear - a trip to the playoffs in Year 1 of the Smith era would have been a major overachievement. Any trip to the postseason is meaningful, especially when there just aren't that many seasons left in 36-year-old quarterback Matt Ryan's career.
But were the Falcons going to win three road games to advance to the Super Bowl?
Considering against seven playoff teams the Falcons have scored an average of only 11.3 points per game, the answer is a resounding no.
As much as Smith accomplished this season - laying the groundwork for a winning culture to return to Atlanta - the Falcons aren't close to returning to the Super Bowl. It's going to take time for the franchise to move out of its salary cap problems and transition into a true winner under Smith and new general manager Terry Fontenot.
The GM would help himself, though, if he stops making bold offseason claims such as "We're not rebuilding."
Maybe this is simply a semantics argument, but even after seven wins, the Falcons face a rebuild.
No one player or coach, for that matter, closes the 22-point gap the Falcons are losing on average by to every playoff team this year. They aren't a player or two or even three away from an NFC crown or division title.
The Falcons must continue to accumulate draft picks and save future salary cap space in an effort to build towards 2023 and 2024.
While that doesn't mean tank or not try to win in 2022, the Falcons can't afford to consider themselves in "win-now" mode anymore. That mindset isn't going to help anybody, and if failing to make the postseason a fourth straight year helps Fontenot and the organization realize that fact, the Falcons will likely be better for it in the long run.
Now, whether "rebuilding" means a different quarterback starts for Atlanta next season is a debate for another day. But the Falcons don't need to play a 17th game in the 2021 season for us to see the writing that's been on the wall for weeks.
