ESPN Analyst Makes Bold Prediction Regarding Giants' Quarterback Situation

Bill Barnwell explains why he thinks Giants QB Daniel Jones could be benched before the season ends.

Chris Pedota / USA TODAY NETWORK

Despite being 16 months removed from having led the New York Giants to their first postseason berth since 2016 and their first postseason win since 2011, quarterback Daniel Jones continues to sharply divide the fan base regarding his suitability to be the team’s franchise quarterback.

A big part of the wave against Jones has been the four-year, $160 million contract he signed in March 2023. The hope was that Jones, who had struggled through different systems, different coaches, and a lack of a consistent supporting cast in the first four years of his career, had finally turned the corner.

All of that feel-good built up from 2022 quickly vanished as the Giants fell 40-0 in a Week 1 beatdown at home against the Cowboys. While they did have a comeback victory the next week against the Cardinals, the critics quickly pointed out that it came against one of the worst teams in the league. 

And if all that wasn’t enough, a bad season got worse for Jones, who tossed just two touchdowns, both coming in the Cardinals game, to six interceptions and who was limited to just six games thanks to a Week 5 neck injury and then an ACL tear in Week 9.

Thus, it was no wonder that when the Giants brass’ more intense than usual look into this year’s quarterbacks class combined with several reports of the team’s attempt to trade up three spots to acquire Drake Maye, who went to the Patriots at No. 3, questions about Jones continued to pick up steam.

But the Giants did not force a quarterback at No. 6–they selected receiver Malik Nabers instead and plan to have Jones leading the offense once he's healthy. 

The question, though, is for how long? ESPN's Bill Barnwell predicted that the Giants will likely bench their starting quarterback by the end of the season.

"While the Giants didn't end up drafting a replacement for Daniel Jones, I wouldn't say I'm optimistic about his chances of holding on to his job heading into 2025,” Barnwell said, noting that Jones lacked the spark and confidence he had in 2022. 

Barnwell acknowledged the offensive line issues, including that the Giants were without left tackle Andrew Thomas for most of the games Jones was in. 

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He also acknowledged the team’s lack of firepower among its receiving corps, which resulted in Jones throwing more interceptions (six) in six starts than he did in a full season in 2022 (five) and averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. He also took sacks on nearly 16% of his dropbacks.

But, argued Barnwell, “If a quarterback is getting paid $40 million per season, he needs to at least play passable football, even without his left tackle and with middling receivers. Jones wasn't up to that task," adding that Jones wasn’t able to elevate the team around him.

However, Barnwell believes Jones will likely hit the bench before the end of the season because of his injury history and the injury guarantee in his contract for 2025. Breaking down the guarantee, $23 million of Jones’s $30 million base salary was guaranteed for injury at signing. 

Separately, $12 million of that $30 million base salary is fully guaranteed if he’s on the roster by the fifth day of the 2025 league year.

If the Giants intend to cut Jones to save that $12 million, they would have to do so before the fifth day of the 2025 league year. However, if Jones were to get injured this year and be unable to pass a physical, the Giants would be on the hook to pay him $23 million, regardless if he’s on the roster next year.

If the Giants get out of the gate slowly or their 2024 season goes down the drain early, Barnwell expects the Giants will bench Jones, much like the Raiders and Broncos benched Derek Carr and Russell Wilson to prevent the possibility of injuries. 

According to Barnwell, the bottom line for Jones is that he has to convince the Giants that he’s the same quarterback (if not better) as he was in 2022 when he led the team to the postseason. 

If he falls short of that objective, the Giants will be in the market for a new quarterback next off-season. 

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