New York Giants 2024 Free Agency Storylines
The NFL free agency negotiating window opens tomorrow for all 32 teams looking to fill roster holes with ready-made talent. As usually is the case, some teams will go on major sprees in a quest to win the off-season award for best roster on paper, while others will be more conservative in their approach.
The New York Giants? This is a franchise that currently has holes at every position on the roster and is facing a critical year ahead in which it must show progress after taking a step backward from a 9-7-1 season in the first year of the Joe Schoen-Brian Daboll era.
And Schoen strongly hinted that changes/reinforcements are on the way.
He told reporters at the combine, "Based on what we do in free agency, the roster could look a lot different in three weeks."
Schoen was also asked if e planned to attack free agency any differently this year than he did last year, when he played it mostly conservatively and instead focused more on retaining the team's homegrown talent like quarterback Daniel Jones, tackle Andrew Thomas, and defensive lineman Dexter Lawerence.
"In terms of free agency, I think the process went well. We were able to sign some guys that were valuable contributors," Schoen said. "Now, there are some guys that we wish maybe we would have—we thought they would have contributed a little bit more. But I think it was a sound process."
What can we expect over the next several weeks? Let's examine the storylines.
What is the Cap Space Situation?
At this time of year, cap space will be fluid—teams will lose space as they sign players and gain space if they cut or restructure.
Currently, the Giants have a decent amount of cap space with which to work—Over the Cap has them with $29,691,666 of effective cap space (space they have under the Top 51 rule, which kicks into effect on March 13) and $38.288 million total.
Schoen can also restructure the contracts of big cap eaters like left tackle Andrew Thomas, defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence, and inside linebacker Bobby Okereke if he needs more room. In fact, that might not be a bad idea, as the Giants are currently "top-heavy" cap-wise.
That means they have at least five players with cap charges of $10+ million, which account for roughly $117.731 million of their total cap liabilities or 53.2 percent of the total cap money spent.
Rebuild or Retweak?
This is an interesting question. In his first year as general manager, Schoen took the tweaking approach thanks to his having inherited a horrific cap situation. Surprisingly, the Giants ended up doing better than anyone expected, finishing 9-7-1 and with a playoff berth.
That success likely lulled Schoen into thinking the team was further along than it actually was. Despite having a better cap situation last year, Scoen limited himself to addressing what he thought was the most glring need ont he team, the run defense, with additions like defensive linemen Rakeem Nunez-Roches and A'Shawn Robinson, and linebacker Bobby Okereke.
Otherwise, the Giants put more of a focus on developing and retaining what they already had. The offensive line wasn't addressed until the draft when the selected John Michael Schmitz int eh second round. They added a lot of receivers, but nary a true No. 1 among them, instead leaning ont he hope that tight end Darren Waller might become that guy.
They never addressed their pass rush by adding to their outside linebacker corps. They also seemed content to roll with youth at cornerback and found themselves once again leaning heavily on running back Saquon Barkley for their offensive production.
As a result, the Giants put more of an emphasis on getting younger core talent like Andrew Thomas and Dexter Lawerence locked up long-term ahead of the second season of the Schoen-Daboll era, a season that knocked the Giants back down to earth as they finished 6-11.
This off-season, expect Schoen to potentially be a bit busier in free agency.
"We don't have that many young players that we're looking to extend like we had last year," he said. So, it's balancing signing those guys outside the building who can be role players or starters but also understanding we want to build this through the Draft. When we took the job, we still wanted to build the team through the Draft and supplement it with free agency. And that's still going to be the case."
Positions like outside linebacker, backup quarterback, offensive line, tight end, and cornerback are among those expected to be heavily addressed in free agency, given the heightened sense of urgency for this team to hit the ground running in 2024.
Other roster holes, such as quarterback, wide receiver, and safety, are likely to be addressed in the draft.
The temptation might be there for Schoen to go all out in free agency, but history has shown time and again that heavily building a roster through free agency is not a sustained formula for success and eventually leads to the cap mess SChoen inherited as a result of his predecessor's attempt to jumpstart the team's progress with a heavy lean into free agency.
Daniel Jones
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
About the Quarterback
Schoen said that Daniel Jones, who is recovering from a torn ACL, has been attacking his rehab with gusto and, as of the last update, had begun doing some antigravity running.
While Jones's actual return date remains up in the air and probably won't be predetermined for several months yet, you can be sure that the Giants have an updated medical report on the incumbent, as a quarterback is a position that will be addressed one way or another.
The Giants are expected to add a veteran—that much Schoen has said. He notes that in the event Jones, who is expected to be the starter once healthy, isn't ready to go, they want a guy who can step in and give them a chance to win games. So, who the Giants actually bring in for that particular role is going to lend a possible sliver of a clue as to how realistic it is for Jones to be ready for the start of the season.
The contract that the veteran receives is also going to be telling of the team's potential draft plans. Again, New York is largely thought to be planning to take a quarterback in the draft. If that's indeed the case, then signing a backup to anything more than a three-year deal makes zero sense.
The Giants might say they have confidence in Jones, but what they're not saying, at least as loudly as they should, is that the quarterback's injury history has become a concern. Jones, as is known by now, has already had two neck injuries in the last three years and doesn't quite seem to grasp the importance of protecting himself when he turns into a runner.
And speaking of running how much is he going to lose of that athletic ability he has as a runner coming off that ACL tear?
All of these factors, combined with Jones's heavy cap hit, are very much at the forefront of Schoen's mind, which is why it's not far-fetched that this year might end up being a bridge year at quarterback until a draft pick is ready for the spotlight.
The Offensive Line
All eyes are going to be on what the Giants do in free agency with the offensive line, and rightfully so. For you see, it doesn't matter who the Giants have at the offensive skill position players; if the offensive line is broken, the offense will be as well.
And let's be honest: the Giants' offensive line has indeed been broken for several years running. Part of the issue was coaching--that much was evident by Daboll's decision to fire Bobby Johnson and bring in Carmen Bricillo. The other part of the issue is talent, as in when you see guys like Jishua Ezeudu show flashes but not consistency, that is cause for concern.
Regardless of what the Giants are planning to do at quarterback--and I still think they're going to pivot away from Jones after this season--the Giants need the offensive line to hit the ground running. It would not be a stretch for this team to add two veterans in free agency, including one with guard/tackle flexibility, so that Bricillo has options as to how he envisions this line coming together.
I would expect Mike Onwenu of the Patriots, Jermaine Eluemunor of the Raiders, and Jonah Jackson of the Lions to draw interest.
Will There Be Any Trades?
There's been much speculation about the Giants possibly trading from No. 6 in next month's draft, but there hasn't been much said about the possibility of Shoen looking to trade a veteran already under contract for assets.
On the surface, the Giants don't really appear to have anyone who might be a trade candidate--Andrew Thomas and Dexter Lawrence are untouchable, and remember, the team can't trade any player not under contract.
The only possibility we see—and this is a very long shot considering the depth of the receiver class—is Darius Slayton. No, Slayton's not a No. 1 receiver, but he's been a solid No. 2. If there is a team looking to hit the ground running with an experienced receiver, maybe Slayton for a late Day 3 draft pick is the way to go.
Again, the odds of this coming to fruition are slim to none. Then again, Schoen has been known to pull a few surprise tricks.
Will Saquon Barkley Walk?
The Giants surprisingly didn't use the franchise tag on Barkley, perhaps out of respect for the running back or perhaps because they concluded that continuing to carry him on a roster that needs so much fixing up would be a luxury rather than a necessity.
That doesn't mean the Giants won't extend an offer to Barkley. The real question is what kind of market ends up developing for him--already the running back market seems a bit crowded. And then there is the question of whether Barkley, who has often spoken about his Giants legacy, is actually serious about continuing that or if he's out to chase one last possible chance at a big football contract.
OF Barkley and Xavier McKinney, the former has the better odds of returning—that is unless a team like the Houston Texans, who have crazy cap space, views Barkley as a finishing piece to their young but talented offense.
Will Xavier McKinney Walk?
McKinney has said all the right things about wanting to stay, but at the end of the day, he's going to follow the money, which is what I've thought would be the case with him all along.
The Giants' refusal to use the $13.815 million transition tg on MCKinney should tell you everything you need to know about how they potentially value the 24-year-old safety from a monetary standpoint. They're not going to crack open the vault to take McKinney, one of the top-five highest paid at his position.
Some teams will probably be happy to accommodate McKinney's desire to score the payday. The New York Post reported the agent community feels the Eagles will be among the first teams to pick up the phone to inquire about McKinney.
Philadelphia has more cap space than the Giants ($42.959 million), and they also desperately need improvements to their defensive secondary. So, as painful as it might be to see a young homegrown Giants talent deflect to the enemy down the turnpike, it's certainly not out of the question.
Darren Waller
Michael Karas-The Record
What's Up with Darren Waller?
Tight end Darren Waller has yet to announce whether he plans to return or retire. Last week, he told The Athletic that he hadn't made a decision and that the Giants had been good about giving him his space to make one.
Regardless of what Waller decides, the Giants should be (and are, for that matter) looking into adding another veteran tight end to the mix. Even if Waller were to return this year, chances are high that this would be his final year anyway.
The Giants would save just under $7 million if Waller does retire. They don't need that money right at this moment, but if Schoen plans to move fast in free agency, a decision would likely be appreciated sooner rather than later.
And if Waller does return, it would be surprising if the Giants attempt to lower his $14.083 million cap hit as they could cut him and gain a bigger cap saving after this year.
Who Else Stays and Who Goes?
The Giants have 30 pending free agents, and it goes without saying that not many of those guys will be back. Stephen Lebitsch and Olivier Dumont wrote a series in January and February covering the biggest pending Giants unrestricted free agents. Details of that series can be found here.
If you're interested in my predictions, here they are in a nutshell, with a few thoughts to follow.
Staying: WR Gunner Olszewski, OL Ben Bredeson, ILB Isaiah Simmons, OLB Benton Whitley (ERFA), CB Nick McCloud (RFA), LS Casey Kreiter
The Giants finally found a decent punt return specialist in Olszewski. Bredeson can give them depth at guard and center; if his price is right, he should be a no-brainer to return as a depth piece.
McCloud was not only a bright spot on special teams last year, he can also fill in on defense. And with the cap space the Giants have, they might just be in a position to afford the $2.985 million "right of first refusal" RFA tag for McCloud.
No reason to move off of Kreiter, who has been solid in his long snapping job. Whitley as an ERFA wouldn't cost that much--it's doubtful he'd even crack the 51 highest cap hits on the team--so there's no harm in giving him a chance to be part of the 90-man roster.
Simmons is the wild card. He's probably not a starter, but he's a utility-type linebacker who can do so many things well and who could, if the Giants lose Xavier McKinney as is expected, maybe even fill some of the roles McKinney had down in the box.
Going: QB Tyrod Taylor, QB Jacob Eason (ERFA), RB Saquon Barkley, RB Matt Breida, WR Isaiah Hodgins (RFA), WR Parris Campbel, WR Sterling Shepard, TE Lawrence Cager, OL Tyree Phillips, OL Justin Pugh OL Matt Peart, OL Shane Lemieux, OL Sean Harlow, OL JC Hassenauer, OL Wyatt Davis, DL A'Shawn Robinson, OLD Jihad Ward, ILB Carter Coughlin, ILB Cam Brown, ILB Jarrad Davis, CB Adoree' Jackson, CB Darnay Holmes, S Xavier McKinney, K Randy Bullock.
A few quick thoughts here. It would make sense for the Giants to bring back Taylor, but there were whispers that he wasn't too pleased about not getting the starting job back right away once he returned from IR in the midst of Tommy DeVito mania.
Hodgins is an RFA, but given how his deployment fell off a cliff last year, combined with the deep receiver class that awaits teams in next month's draft, it really doesn't make sense to tender Hodgins at nearly $3 million. Phillips could be back at some point-- a lot will depend on his rehab progress as well as what the Giants end up doing in free agency.
Robinson, who was solid once promoted to the starting lineup following the Leonard Williams trade, had his contract void, so he's unlikely to be back. Jackson also had his contract void, and already the Giants have reportedly begun looking into other veteran options to line up opposite of Deonte Banks.
The Giants finally took Holmes off primary slot cornerback duty, and while he did well as a punt gunner, it probably doesn't make sense to bring him back unless he has versatility in that position.
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