Why the Giants Will Beat the Ravens, Why They Won't, and What Will Actually Happen
The New York Giants claim they're not worried about the playoffs that their focus is on improving a little bit more each day.
And while they are correct in saying that playoffs--or lack thereof--won't necessarily define their season as a success or failure, isn't the opportunity to participate in the postseason why these players and coaches spend thousands of hours every year preparing for?
With all that said, the Giants, who by the way are 0-2 in Baltimore against the Ravens, have a tough road ahead of them if they do desire a playoff berth. The easiest way is for New York to win their remaining two games and hope that Washington loses at least one of their remaining two.
Can New York do it starting this weekend against the Ravens? Let's run through the various scenarios.
Why the Giants will win...
-- They'll figure out a way to keep Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson from hurting them with his legs. Since Jackson became the starting quarterback, the Ravens are 8-0 when he rushes for 100+ yards.
-- They'll put an end to the Ravens' 100+-yard rushing streak of 37 consecutive games, which is tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history.
-- The Giants will get out to a fast start scoring-wise. The Ravens are 1-3 in games this season in which they are not leading at halftime. Gaining a comfortable lead goes a long way toward knocking the Ravens offense out of what has worked so well for them lately (running the ball) and forces Jackson to beat teams via the air.
-- The Giants can cash in with a few deep shots against a weakened Ravens defensive secondary, which could be without one of their top cornerbacks, Marcus Peters (listed as questionable with a calf strain) this weekend.
-- The Giants offensive line does its part in keeping Daniel Jones upright against what's sure to be a blitz heavy pass rush with a good dose of stunts and twists mixed in given the Giants' struggles in picking up the latter.
-- The Giants' running game gets into a flow. The last thing New York needs against this Ravens defense is to find itself in third-and-long situations, as the Giants are ranked 26th in third-down conversions. And the thought of the Giants offensive tackles (Andrew Thomas and Cam Fleming/Matt Peart) going against edge defenders Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon on third down isn't exactly settling.
Dec 20, 2020; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley (2) runs during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Why the Giants Will Lose
-- They're facing a Ravens team that, since 2008, is 20-5 at home against the NFC.
-- The struggles to cover kickoffs will continue against a Ravens team that since 2008 has the league's best kickoff return average (24.9 yards/return) and which also has a 108-yard return for a touchdown as part of eight kickoffs returns for a touchdown in that same period.
-- The Ravens end up running wild. During the John Harbaugh era, Baltimore is 75-18 when rushing for at least 125 yards; 51-11 when rushing for 150+ yards and 26-3 when rushing for 200+ yards. Meanwhile, the Giants run defense has allowed 100+ rushing yards to opponents in each of its last three games and are 1-2 over that stretch.
-- Jones's mobility isn't what we think it might be, and he struggles to finish the game. As previously noted all week, Jones (hamstring/ankle) was trending toward a return this weekend for a game with a lot at stake. Jones isn't 100% recovered from his two injuries and won't be by the time the regular season ends, but there is optimism he'll be a lot more mobile than he was against the Cardinals, where he was a sitting duck for that Arizona pass rush.
-- Jones's ball security issues rear their ugly head this week against a Ravens defense that has forced a league-leading 25 fumbles this year.
-- The Giants special teams fail to win the starting field position battle. The Giants special teams, which started so well this year, have regressed to where they're not helping the struggling offense. New York has allowed opponents 22.5 yards per kickoff return and 9.0 yards per punt return. The Ravens, meanwhile, are averaging 27.3 yards per kickoff return and 8.6 yards per punt return.
What Will Actually Happen
It's well known that the Giants have struggled to score this season, and a rather remarkable stat is that New York, who by the way is 3-6 in games when they've scored 20 or fewer points, have not come close to topping 100 points in any of the four quarters that make up a regulation game.
The Giants defense might do well in keeping up with the Ravens and Jackson, but unless the Giants offense can keep up with sustaining drives and not settling for field goals, they are likely facing an uphill battle this week.
Ravens 37, Giants 17
