Computer Simulation Projects Lions Win Total and Odds of Making Playoffs in 2020

John Maakaron

The Detroit Lions did not expect the 2019 season would derail as quickly as it did.

The season took a nose dive after franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford went down with a back injury in Oakland. Detroit went winless the second half of the season, while the trainers room became littered with injured Lions. 

Along with Stafford, a laundry list of Lions ended up on the season-ending injured reserve list, resulting in a 3-12-1 season. 

The Lions enter the 2020 NFL season needing to produce some drastic results. Ownership has mandated the heavily scrutinized regime has the team in playoff contention or face some dire consequences. 

The Lions were better offensively in 2019, but the defense took a major step backwards. 

During the early phase of free agency, general manager Bob Quinn made a concerted effort to acquire veterans who had experience in Matt Patricia's elaborate defensive scheme.

Will the moves result in more victories in 2020?

The SportsLine Projection Model recently updated its projected win total for the Detroit Lions after the first wave of NFL free agency.

After simulating the 2020 NFL season 10,000 times, Detroit comes away with more victories, but the odds of making the playoffs do not seem favorable for the current regime: 

"Detroit wins an average of 7.2 games in simulations and makes the postseason 19.0 percent of the time. That's a fairly significant jump from the 6.1 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Lions at 100-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which are tied for fifth-worst odds in the NFL."


Post Free Agency NFL Mock Draft Roundup 

Lions Must Still Improve Pass Rush

Is LB Jarrad Davis the Odd Man Out?

Better Fit: Chase Young or Derrick Brown?

Comments (2)
No. 1-2



Will wait for the draft before thinking about Wins/Losses in 2020