2023 NFL Schedule: Predicting Packers’ Wins, Losses

How many wins for the Green Bay Packers in Jordan Love's first season as the starter? Here's a game-by-game series of predictions.

Author:
Bill Huber
Updated:
May 12, 2023 9:12 AM EDT
Original:
May 11, 2023

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Expectations are low for the Green Bay Packers.

As they should be.

They went 8-9 last season as Aaron Rodgers faltered after his back-to-back MVP seasons and the defense was a major disappointment. Heading into the 2023 season, Rodgers has been traded to the New York Jets, the offense is impossibly young and inexperienced at quarterback, receiver and tight end, and the questions on defense start at the top with coordinator Joe Barry.

Worth recalling: When Rodgers replaced Brett Favre in 2008, the Packers went 6-10. It was a season doomed by a 0-7 record in games decided by four points or less. As is the case for just about every young quarterback, learning how to win games will be one of the big hurdles for Jordan Love.

With the release of the 2023 NFL schedule, the over/under on Packers victories is 7.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Of course, the Packers don’t care about outside expectations or betting odds.

Nor should they.

“I’m loving it,” running back Aaron Jones said of the team’s underdog status. “When you prove people wrong, it’s one of the best feelings in the world.”

A franchise steeped in history, the 2023 Packers are filled with mystery. Here’s our best guess at Green Bay’s wins and losses.

Week 1: at Chicago Bears

The Bears might be the most improved team in the NFL. Free agency netted perhaps four new starters on defense, including what could be an elite tandem at linebacker with Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards. Plus, quarterback Justin Fields finally has a legit receiver with the acquisition of D.J. Moore. For one game, anyway, Bears fans can rejoice that they’re not owned by the enemy.

The Pick: Bears (0-1)

Week 2: at Atlanta Falcons

Well, maybe the Falcons are the most improved team in the NFL. Free agency added as many as six new starters on defense, including what could be a powerhouse front of Calais Campbell, Bud Dupree and David Onyemata. The Falcons’ questions at quarterback – Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke? – are about as large as Green Bay’s with Love but we’ll give the Falcons the edge at home, where they went 6-3 last year.

The Pick: Falcons (0-2)

Week 3: New Orleans Saints

The Saints went 7-10 last year, when Andy Dalton started 14 games. Surely, their offense will be better with Derek Carr throwing passes to Chris Olave and Michael Thomas (assuming he’s healthy). Then again, Carr is coming off back-to-back seasons of 14 interceptions. This could be a good day for Green Bay’s secondary, which will be fired up for the home opener.

The Pick: Packers (1-2)

Week 4: Detroit Lions

On a short week, the Lions will visit Lambeau Field on Thursday night. It is the first of five games scheduled for primetime. With the additions of cornerbacks Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in free agency, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson in free agency and safety Brian Branch in the draft, the Lions have turned their glaring weakness into a strength.

The Pick: Lions (1-3)

Week 5: at Las Vegas Raiders

Davante Adams vs. Jaire Alexander will be must-see TV, and Raiders running back Josh Jacobs could gain 200 yards against Green Bay’s porous run defense. However, Love could have a big game against a Raiders back seven that looks especially weak.

The Pick: Packers (2-3)

Week 6: Bye

The bye comes at a time, with coach Matt LaFleur having a five-game sample size with Love and Love getting a week to collect this thoughts.

Week 7: at Denver Broncos

With a better offensive line, Russell Wilson should be better in Year 2. And by now, the Broncos’ offense under new coach Sean Payton should have taken hold. Green Bay is 1-6 all-time in Denver.

The Pick: Broncos (2-4)

Week 8: Minnesota Vikings

No team might take a bigger step back than the Vikings. Of their 13 wins last year, 11 came by one score. That kind of success is hard to replicate, especially if they wind up trading running back Dalvin Cook and pass rusher Za’Darius Smith.

The Pick: Packers (3-4)

Week 9: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Cooper Kupp at receiver and Aaron Donald on the defensive line. Beyond that? Green Bay should win all the other individual matchups against the rebuilding Rams.

The Pick: Packers (4-4)

Week 10: at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have a legit group of skill players with running back Najee Harris, receivers George Pickens, Dionate Johnson and Allen Robinson, and tight end Pat Freiermuth. Do they have a quarterback? The jury is out on Kenny Pickett. On defense, they’ll be relying on one old corner (Patrick Peterson) and one rookie (Joey Porter Jr.). We’ll see how that works out.

The Pick: Packers (5-4)

Week 11: Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert at quarterback, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston at receiver and Austin Ekeler at running back form a superb group of playmakers. If the Chargers race out to a lead, good luck rallying through the air against pass rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa.

The Pick: Chargers (5-5)

Week 12: at Detroit Lions

Even when Rodgers was the quarterback, the Lions always rose to the occasion at Ford Field. The Lions are really good – especially at home, where they scored 28 more points than any team in the league.

The Pick: Lions (5-6)

Week 13: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have the best team in the NFL, the best coach in the NFL and a quarterback who might wind up being the best in NFL history.

The Pick: Chiefs (5-7)

Week 14: at New York Giants

The Giants are paying Daniel Jones like he’s a championship-caliber quarterback. Is he? He’s got a lot to prove, with the addition of tight end Darren Waller helping offset a suspect receiver corps. This feels like the type of winnable road game that could make a difference – if not for this year than for building toward 2024.

The Pick: Packers (6-7)

Week 15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In December trips to Lambeau Field the last two years, Baker Mayfield threw three touchdowns vs. five interceptions with a 55.7 passer rating. Then again, maybe Mayfield will be benched for Kyle Trask by now. Cold weather might not matter against hungry teams like the Lions last season, but it should matter if the Bucs are out of contention by now.

The Pick: Packers (7-7)

Week 16: at Carolina Panthers

By now, Carolina quarterback Bryce Young won’t really be a rookie, just like Love won’t really be a first-year starter. So long as the talented trio of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed have grown alongside Love …

The Pick: Packers (8-7)

Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings

New Year’s Eve night. Inside deafening U.S. Bank Stadium. Rivalry game. Did we mention inside U.S. Bank Stadium on New Year’s Eve night? The atmosphere should be tremendous and really test Love’s ability to handle some difficult situations. But, until the Packers figure out how to stop Justin Jefferson on the Vikings’ home surface, it might not matter if Love throws for 400 yards and five touchdowns.

The Pick: Vikings (8-8)

Week 18: Chicago Bears

This really should be a good litmus test for the Packers, regardless of whether they’re 8-8, 11-5 or 5-11 at this point in the season. A year into the Love era, are the Packers on the rise? Is Fields a good quarterback or just a great athlete? Who knows, maybe this game will decide the final spot in the NFC playoff race.

The Pick: Packers (9-8)