Packers vs. Lions: Three Reasons for Optimism in Week 18

The Green Bay Packers must beat the Detroit Lions to punch their ticket into the NFL playoffs. Here’s why that will happen.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Jan 7, 2023 12:19 PM EST

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have gone from 4-8 to 8-8 and on the precipice of an unlikely spot in the NFL playoffs.

How unlikely? At the time, ESPN gave the Packers a 2 percent chance. Coming off a seventh loss in eight games, Green Bay would have to win five in a row. And it would need help. A lot of help. With the head-to-head game factored in, the Washington Commanders held a four-game lead over the Packers with five to play.

“There was something in there that had hope, but it was a fool’s hope at the time, I think,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said this week. “And so much had to happen, which is why, like I said Sunday night, I had to wrap my head around the scenarios and find a peace in that. I think anytime you’re dealing with the unknown, if you can take your mind to the worst-case scenario and put yourself in that position and find peace and contentment and just a general sense of ‘I’m OK,’ it makes that unknown a lot less scary.

“For any of us who did that, and took our mind to the places of ‘What if we do lose another game and we’re out of this?’ And finding some joy and peace in those moments of frustration maybe allowed us to play a little bit freer. But I still go back to that Chicago game and that fourth quarter, which gave us a lot of confidence, and since then we’ve practiced with a different level of energy. There’s been a lightness in the locker room and a lot of positive things that you give you confidence that this team has a chance to make a run.”

The Lions have a lot of belief, too, after winning seven of their last nine games. They have plenty of reasons, real and pretend, to be fired up. But here’s why Green Bay will beat the Lions and be playing again next weekend.

1. No Place Like Home (for Both Teams)

In regular-season games played at Lambeau Field in December and January under coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 10-0. Sure, that success has taken a beating with losses to Tampa Bay and San Francisco the past two postseasons, but Sunday really will be that perfect Packers weather, with a kickoff temperature of about 30 and the field working in their favor.

“We have to play on the same field, so you always have an advantage when you’re at home, no different than when we have to go somewhere else and play,” coach Matt LaFleur said in response to the Vikings’ complaining about the slippery surface after last week’s game. “It’s advantage, home team, typically. I think you’ve just got to deal with it the best you can.”

The Lions are 3-4 on the road but have only one “legit” victory – at the Giants in November. The others were against the Jets (led by Zach Wilson) and the Bears (who stink).

Lions quarterback Jared Goff is seventh with a 100.2 passer rating, built on the strength of 29 touchdowns vs. seven interceptions. Overall, he is 8.7 points better than Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.

The home-road splits are interesting, though. Of 29 quarterbacks who have thrown 150 passes in home games, Goff is second with a 109.3 rating (23 touchdowns, three interceptions) and Rodgers is seventh at 101.4 (14 touchdowns, two interceptions). On the other hand, of 24 quarterbacks with 150 pass attempts in road games, Goff is 13th with an 87.6 passer rating with just six touchdowns vs. four interceptions.

That would strongly suggest that Detroit’s offense is built for the great indoors and could struggle in the January chill of Lambeau. Sure enough: Detroit is averaging 19.3 points per game compared to its league-leading 33.1 at home.

2. Offensive Tackles Have Big Matchups

The strength of Detroit’s defense is its rookie pass rushers. Aidan Hutchinson, the second pick of this year’s draft, leads the entire rookie class with 50 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. James Houston, a sixth-round pick in this year’s draft, leads the entire rookie class with eight sacks. Incredibly, he spent most of the season on the practice squad and has played in only six games.

The pressure – pardon the pun – will be on Green Bay’s offensive tackles, who dominated last week against Minnesota’s Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter. Houston, who basically only plays on passing downs, has rushed almost exclusively from the defense’s right side and against the opponent left tackle. That, obviously, would be Green Bay’s indomitable David Bakhtiari.

“He’s got really good get-off and really good change of direction,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said of Houston. “He does a good job getting up the field and getting the tackles to flip their hips, and then he can dip underneath. He’s very slippery so, when guys go to punch, he does a good job dipping underneath that and really good motor. A lot of [the sacks], just running around the hump, chasing down plays and getting sacks that way. He’s been impressive to watch.”

Hutchinson has 7.5 sacks. His season numbers between left and right side are fairly well split but it stands to reason that he’ll go up against Green Bay’s right tackle – either Yosh Nijman, who has been hampered by a shoulder injury the last two games, or rookie Zach Tom. So much for the rookie wall for Hutchinson, who had a season-high seven pressures last week.

“I always say this, in the biggest games, that's where I feel like I get the most excited,” Hutchinson said this week. “You want to make a play knowing it's nationally televised and everyone is watching. That stuff gets me fired up and gets me excited.

“It's like that Ohio State game last year. … I felt like at Michigan we got to (play in primetime) a pretty good amount, but doing it at Green Bay, end of the year, it's one of those Ohio State feelings, where everything is on the line and you want to have your best performance. It's all of that. It definitely gives me those vibes, which is why I'm so excited for it."

3. If Packers Win That Matchup …

Detroit’s pass rush is really good, with 15 sacks in its last three victories. The rest of the defense? Not so much.

The Lions are 29th with 25.7 points allowed per game. They’re bad against the run (30th with 5.32 yards per attempt), bad against the pass (31st with 7.49 yards allowed per attempt), bad on third down (30th at 45.8 percent), bad in the red zone (27th at 64.3 percent) and bad in goal-to-go (30th at 82.7 percent).

In its last road game, at Carolina on Christmas Eve, the Panthers rushed for 320 yards. Its three road victories came against the Bears’ Justin Fields, the Giants’ Daniel Jones and the Jets’ Zach Wilson – not quite a cream-of-the-crop bunch. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had his best season but he’s been better at home and has a lot of big-game experience.

“We respect all our opponents, but we’re always going to cut it loose. I mean, that’s just what we try to do,” Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said this week. “So, we don’t take this more from what it is. We look at these guys and we say nameless faces, but we know this guy’s name and we know his face.

“But, at the end of the day we’re after the football, at the end of the day we’re trying to win a game and that’s what this is. It’s either win or you lose in the simplest terms, and we do everything we can to try to go win a game regardless of who it is. Again, we respect our opponents, but we’re also trying to beat the heck out of our opponents.”

Last week against the Bears, the Lions started four rookies on defense and another played almost 50 percent of the snaps. Along with the aforementioned Aidan Hutchinson and James Houston, safety Kerby Joseph had two picks of Rodgers in Week 9.

“It takes time,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of the Lions’ youth. “I’m kind of into a whole identity of a defense and when you watch them on tape in terms of just the effort, strain, the physicality, their ability to get the ball out, the pressure they put on you, I think they do a really good job of that.”

If Green Bay can run the ball, like it has for most of the season but struggled to do in Week 9, and protect Rodgers, the offense could have a big day.