Three Reasons to Worry After Packers Beat Patriots
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers needed overtime on Sunday to beat the New England Patriots, who were quarterbacked by a third-string rookie. Last week, they needed a two-point deflection to save a victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were without their three marquee receivers and left tackle.
The Packers are 3-1. A flawed 3-1, to be sure. Also to be sure, it’s better to be a flawed 3-1 than a flawed 1-3.
“Especially for the young guys, just understanding not every win is going to be pretty,” receiver Allen Lazard said following his first 100-yard game of the season. “The end of the first quarter of the season, they got an experience now that we’ve had good wins. We’ve had gut-wrenching wins and, obviously, a loss that we’re not too proud of, either. Getting that first quarter out of the way and that experience, kind of be able to knock off the rust for the rest of us and attack the rest of the season in a strong passionate way, I think we’re setting ourselves up great.”
Here are this week’s three reasons to worry.
1. Everything’s So Hard on Offense
After a dismal first half in which they gained 125 yards, converted only one third down and served up a pick-six, the Packers heard some boos as they trudged into halftime staring at a 10-7 deficit. The pressure was on entering the second half.
“I was a little concerned we were going to get booed out of the stadium if we go three-and-out with three consecutive passes,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “I definitely said that to our coaches on the headset, I was like, ‘Man, we’re about to get booed out of here.”
Instead, they were cheered into the locker room after Mason Crosby’s game-winning kick. The offense got its act together for the second half, rallying twice before winning in overtime. Still, for a team used to scoring 30 points with regularity, everything seems like such a challenge.
The pass protection has been porous, at times. Receivers haven’t gotten open, at times. Aaron Rodgers has been off-target, at times. There have been mental busts, dropped passes and turnovers. Everyone knew the Packers would have to find their way on offense without Davante Adams. But, four games into the season, has there been any real and reliable building blocks of progress?
The good news is there have been strong moments, too, with productive first halves against Chicago and Tampa Bay and the excellent second half and overtime against New England. If the Packers can go from 30 minutes of good offense to even 45, they’ll be in good shape. “If” is the biggest two-letter word in the English language. Just because the Packers have been explosive on offense for the better part of three decades doesn’t mean they’ll eventually become explosive again.
“Bill’s a great coach. He had a great scheme. Their guys made some plays,” Rodgers said of Bill Belichick’s Patriots defense. “I felt like we got into a rhythm in the second half with some of the play calls. I settled in and usually don’t have two terrible halves, so I kind of returned to the form I expect from myself, and we started moving the football.”
2. Saquon Barkley’s Next
There were two assumptions made about Green Bay’s defense entering the season. One, it would rush the passer. Two, it would put the clamps on opposing receivers. The pass rush has been excellent. Led by Rashan Gary’s five sacks, the Packers are fourth in sack percentage. Since Week 1 at Minnesota, the coverage has been mostly OK.
The run defense, however, was the big question mark. It’s been bad for years. Theoretically, the addition of defensive lineman Jarran Reed in free agency and linebacker Quay Walker in the draft would fix that phase. That hasn’t been the case, though. Green Bay ranks 22nd in the league in rushing yards per carry (4.97) and per game (126.8).
One week after slamming the door on the Buccaneers’ Leonard Fournette, the Patriots’ underrated tandem of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson powered a rushing attack that churned out 167 yards at a 5.1-yard clip. That was absolutely inexcusable considering the state of the Patriots’ quarterbacking depth chart.
“We have yet to play our standard of ball,” Gary said. “So, there’s still things that we have to correct to play our perfect game. That’s what we’re all trying to do and make sure that we’re doing it together.”
Run defense is about talent and scheme, to be sure, but it’s also about desire. Everybody wants to sack the quarterback. Sacking the quarterback, however, is a reward for tackling running backs. The Packers haven’t been nearly good enough in that area. And that could be trouble against NFL rushing leader Saquon Barkley. It’s time to start beating blocks, setting edges, taking good angles and making tackles.
“Saquon Barkley’s definitely a force and he’s one of the premier backs in this league,” LaFleur said. “There’s a lot to clean up before we get on that plane to go to London.”
3. Turnovers
From 2008 through 2021, the first 14 seasons of Rodgers’ run as the starter, the Packers were plus-125 in turnovers. That was second-best in the NFL, behind only the Patriots (plus-164) but well ahead of the third-ranked Seahawks (plus-79). The Packers were No. 2 in giveaways and takeaways.
Through four games this season, the Packers are minus-3.
Through those aforementioned 14 seasons, Green Bay averaged 1.06 giveaways per game. With seven turnovers in four games, it has averaged 1.75 to start this season. Rodgers has thrown three interceptions after averaging 4.3 during his first three seasons under LaFleur.
Defensively, only the Giants (zero) have fewer interceptions than the Packers (one). Better run defense would create more must-pass situations.
“The bottom line is, as soon as you think you have a game won before the game’s even played, a lot of times that bites you in the butt,” LaFleur said. “For me, I know it’s easy for me to never go there because you have to play the game and there’s a lot of times you can beat yourself. And, certainly, we always talk about the ball. When you lose the turnover battle, you’re kind of putting yourself back against the 8-ball. To be able to come out in top and lose the turnover battle, I think it says a lot about our guys, just the resiliency that we look for.”
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