Why They Win: How Do Patriots Conquer Cleveland?
"Orange" you glad the New England Patriots are back in the win column?
Momentum is slowly starting to trickle back into the side of the Flying Elvises helmets after a visit from Pat Patriot. New England will look to create a winning streak against those with the orange helmets on Sunday afternoon when they battle the Cleveland Browns on the road in an early AFC showdown. The Patriots have split the AFC North portion of their schedule, topping Pittsburgh on the road before dropping their home opener against Baltimore.
As for their hosts, Cleveland continues to bide its time until quarterback Deshaun Watson's suspension ends. The Browns are coming off consecutive narrow losses, falling to Atlanta and the Los Angeles Chargers by a combined five points.
How do the Patriots, narrow underdogs at +2.5, take home what pessimists could view as a premature wild-card elimination game?
In Their Defense
The Patriots' defense is riding a sizable wave of momentum after consecutive interconference contests: a pick-six for Jack Jones allowed them to keep pace in an overtime tilt in Green Bay while the team enjoyed a 29-point shutout over Detroit last week. Matthew Judon earned AFC Player of the Week efforts as the de facto headliner, while Jones and fellow surname-bearer Jonathan Jones continue to impress in both traditional and advanced categories.
Such efforts have caught the eyes of both the Browns and New England's shutdown defenders of the past: ex-safety Rodney Harrison loves having Judon as a defensive leader and compared Jack Jones to championship teammate Asante Samuel.
"I like the fact he’s confident. I’d rather have that than have a guy that’s tentative, that’s scared, ‘Hey, make sure you back me up.’ I want a guy that says: ‘You throw that out route and I’m going to pick it off,'" Harrison said. “In this league, you just don’t see guys playing with that level of confidence. When you see a young kid like that, it kind of reminds you of Jalen Ramsey, or the way Minkah Fitzpatrick plays. You've got to have an air about yourself ... if not, this league will rip you apart.”
The defensive breakout comes at a time when the Patriots are trying to keep their heads above water while (presumed?) franchise quarterback Mac Jones heals. Facing off against a Cleveland group doing the same with Jacoby Brissett offers another sterling opportunity to flex their muscles.
Pick on Nick
Cleveland has managed to keep an unexpected pace in the early going thanks to the efforts of Nick Chubb, the league's current rushing champion. An aerial bias probably killed his chances at the actual award before they started, but Chubb has a slight MVP effect in the Browns-Patriots series: when forced to sit out of last season's contest, Cleveland mustered only 99 yards in the 45-7 shellacking.
Head coach Bill Belichick reciprocated Chubb's respect, setting the stage for an intriguing showdown on Sunday.
"He's really good and he's got a good group in front of him and they absolutely know what they're doing," Belichick said. "He's very hard to tackle, got tremendous contact balance, playing strength, good vision, good patience. He really sets up his blocks well (and) gets the most out of every block."
The Browns' rock will meet with a hard object on Sunday: New England's run defense has struggled as of late but they took advantage of the lack of D'Andre Swift on Sunday, limiting the Lions to less than four yards a carry. Furthermore, the Patriots are the only team in the NFL that has yet to allow a running back to score a touchdown this season. There's thus a prime opportunity to force Brissett, a former New England draft pick, into a situation where he has to take over and win the contest.
Cleveland Rocks ... at Losing
The Browns deserve a little credit for making their prescience felt in a division that features the defending Super Bowl finalists and a resurgent Lamar Jackson. But there's a lingering sense that things could be so much better in the early stages of a transitional season for the orange helmets.
Perhaps Bob Wickman and/or Jose Mesa should linger on speed dial (is that still a thing?) for the Browns, who have had major trouble closing out games. Cleveland has held fourth-quarter leads in each of its three losses this season, that tally headlined by an epic, two-possession collapse against the New York Jets that even the most die-hard Browns fan probably couldn't even be mad at, just amazed.
On the other hand, the Patriots are slowly starting to find a bit of a swagger when it comes to clutch closes. The shutout effort against the Lions saw the defense stop eight third-down conversions on a dozen attempts, leading to six fourth-down tries ... all of which were likewise stifled. It marked the first time in NFL history that a team was able to post a perfect fourth down percentage on at least six attempts.
Belichick labeled the success on latter downs as one of the deciding factors in shutting out the high-octane Lions offense.
"There's a reason why they're the highest-scoring offense in the league and most yards and all the accolades that they've had, but I think, again, really the majority of the credit needs to go to our players," Belichick said. "They're the ones that went out there and defeated blocks, tackled them, covered, and all that. There's no one guy. It's just a good team effort."
A New England defense gaining a clutch swagger is one of the last things opponents, especially those underestimating their quarterback situation, want to see. Combine that with a host that has had major trouble sealing the deal and that only increases the chances of the famed "Factory of Sadness" churning out something new on Sunday.
What: New England Patriots (2-3) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Who's Won: Series tied 13-13 (Last: 45-7 NE, 11/14/21)
Geoff Magliocchetti is on Twitter @GeoffJMags
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