No Patriots - Past Or Present - Among NFL's Best Play-Callers?
There has been much wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth this offseason in New England over the Patriots' offensive play-calling in 2022.
Is Bill Belichick in total control?
Is either Joe Judge or Matt Patricia qualified for the job?
Will the departure of Josh McDaniels stunt the growth of second-year quarterback Mac Jones?
According to the analytics site Pro Football Focus, it's a lose-lose-lose situation. In its annual ranking of the NFL's best offensive play-callers, PFF doesn't include Belichick, Judge, Patricia or even McDaniels among the best.
While this isn't a huge surprise to Patriots fans - given the fact that Patricia went 13-29-1 with Matthew Stafford at quarterback while head coach of the Detroit Lions and Judge last season called a quarterback sneak on 3rd-and-8 from inside his own 10-yard-line as head coach of the New York Giants - the Las Vegas Raiders are probably a bit shocked not to find their supposed offensive genius among the NFL's brightest minds.
Says PFF of its ranking criteria:
In rating offensive play callers here, we use PFF grades — adjusted for opponent and scaled for age (most recent games get the highest scale — and, probably most importantly, we take into account expected points added and success rate going into the games and plays of interest, which also controls for situation. A team with a really good quarterback, offensive line and wide receivers should have high expected points added (EPA) and success rate figures going into a play, and therefore a coach needs to consistently outpace those expectations to have a high play-caller rating. Opponent-level factors are also built into the expectations to account for easier or more difficult schedules.
PFF determined there are only six "elite" play-callers entering the 2022 season:
1. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
2. Kellen Moore, Dallas Cowboys.
3. Byron Leftwich, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
5. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams
6. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
Considering the quarterbacks at those play-callers disposal are named Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Stafford and Aaron Rodgers, it seems to ask the old chicken-or-egg question:
Do offensive play-callers make the quarterback, or vice-versa?
