Saints Passing Game May Have Big Outing vs. Reeling Panthers Defense

Could New Orleans open up their playbook against a struggling Carolina pass defense to close out the regular season?

Author:
Bob Rose
Publish date:
Jan 8, 2023 9:15 AM EST

In this story:

The New Orleans Saints wrap up their regular season by hosting the Carolina Panthers this afternoon. New Orleans (7-9) and Carolina (6-10) were both eliminated from playoff contention last weekend. The Panthers defeated the Saints by a 22-14 score during a Week 3 meeting in Carolina.

New Orleans was expected to have a much more productive offense this season over their 2022 version. Turnovers, penalties, injuries, ineffective play, and bewildering play-calling prevented that from happening.

The Saints have averaged 335.6 yards of total offense per game, ranking 19th in the league. Andy Dalton took over for Jameis Winston at quarterback in Week 4, but the loss of WR Michael Thomas and injuries along the offensive line kept him from having a full arsenal of weapons.

New Orleans squares off against a Panthers defense that ranks 22nd in the league with an average of 353 yards per contest. Carolina has held six opponents under 20 points, but has been hit hard with injuries over the second half of the year.

The Saints have clearly preferred a ball-control approach centered around their running game. It's helped cut back on their turnovers -- just eight in their last nine games after 16 in their first seven outings. If needed, will New Orleans be able to make plays through the air against a Carolina defense that's struggled in that capacity?

Saints Passing Attack

- 20.2 points per game (22nd)

- 220.7 passing yards/game (16th)

- 66.3% completion percentage

- 23 touchdowns (15th)

- 14 interceptions (20th)

- 37 sacks

- 40.8% 3rd Down Percentage (14th)

Jan 1, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Andy Dalton (14) throws a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

In his 13 starts (6-7 record), Dalton's 67.1% completion percentage is the highest of his 12-year career. He's averaged nearly 208 yards/game with 17 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and one 300-yard outing.

Dalton isn't as explosive as Winston and has poor pocket awareness at times. However, he rarely takes unnecessary chances and spreads the ball around to his receivers well.

Rookie first-round choice Chris Olave has quickly emerged as one of the NFL's best up-and-coming wideouts. Olave leads the Saints with 67 receptions for 982 yards. He has three 100-yard outings, five more of at least 60, and at least four catches in 11 of his 14 games.

An outstanding route runner with excellent speed, Olave threatens defenses all over the field. What makes his achievements more impressive is the fact that Thomas has been out since Week 3, Jarvis Landry was a shell of his former Pro Bowl form before landing on injured reserve, and Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith have been all but invisible.

Callaway and Smith have combined for just 34 catches and 430 yards. They have only one reception each in the team’s last seven games. Their ineptitude has handcuffed the offense, but also opened up an opportunity for perhaps the Saints biggest surprise of 2022.

New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (89) makes a catch over Philadelphia Eagles cornerback James Bradberry (24). Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Undrafted rookie WR Rashid Shaheed snuck onto the practice squad after a solid preseason. He didn't see his first action until Week 6 against Cincinnati, but took his first touch from scrimmage for a 44-yard rushing touchdown. His second offensive touch was a week later, resulting in a 53-yard touchdown reception.

Shaheed would rise up the depth chart to the Number Two receiving spot. Despite playing in only 11 games, and just six with regular offensive duties, he has 25 receptions for 454 yards. He has game-breaking speed, but has also shown good route running ability to make him a consistent threat for the offense.

Third-year TE Juwan Johnson has also developed into a surprising legitimate weapon for the Saints. A converted wideout, Johnson has the speed to be a mismatch against most linebackers and the size advantage over most defensive backs. He is tied for second on the team with 487 receiving yards on a career-high 41 catches and a team-high 7 touchdowns.

Dec 29, 2019; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) in open field against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY

Alvin Kamara remains the best all-purpose running back in the NFL. However, his use and production in the passing game has been baffling all year. Kamara is second on the team with 56 receptions for 487 yards, but since Week 8 has averaged only 25 yards per game through the air.

Taysom Hill is another versatile offensive piece. More than just a runner, Hill can also make plays with his arm when he lines up behind center. He's completed 13 of his 19 throws for 240 yards and two touchdowns. Hill also has 8 receptions for 76 yards and two scores.

Callaway, Smith, TE Adam Trautman, or RBs Eno Benjamin and David Johnson could potentially make a play but have done next to nothing. Dalton's most realistic chance to make plays are with Olave, Shaheed, Johnson, or Kamara.

The Saints may also have issues with pass protection up front. Starting RG Cesar Ruiz was already on injured reserve, LG Andrus Peat is out with an ankle injury, and RT Ryan Ramczyk may miss with a hip injury. Calvin Throckmorton will again replace Ruiz, while Josh Andrews is expected to replace Peat.

Second-year OT Landon Young could step in for Ramczyk if he's ruled out. New Orleans could also move LT James Hurst to the right and give rookie first-round choice Trevor Penning his first career start on the left side. Luckily, C Erik McCoy has played outstanding football for the last three games since returning from his own injury issues.

Panthers Pass Defense

- 22.9 points per game (22nd)

- 231.7 passing yards/game (23rd)

- 66.3% completion percentage

- 24 touchdowns (20th)

- 10 interceptions (23rd)

- 34 sacks/88 QB hits

-41.7% 3rd Down Percentage (25th)

Sep 25, 2022; New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) and Carolina Panthers safety Jeremy Chinn (21) go after the ball. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina allowed only one 300-yard passer and two 100-yard receivers, all to New Orleans, over their first 10 games before injuries took a toll. Since losing top CB Donte Jackson for the year in Week 10, the Panthers have given up four 100-yard receivers, two 300-yard passers, and have allowed an average of 289 yards through the air. They also lost CB Jaycee Horn two weeks ago for the season.

Replacement corners C.J. Henderson, T.J. Carrie, Josh Norman, and Keith Taylor have been torched. Henderson's two interceptions are the only ones from a defensive back on the active roster, but he's given up nearly 71% completion percentage when targeted.

Safeties Jeremy Chinn and Xavier Woods have excellent range when in deep coverage. Chinn has the coverage ability to take receivers in the slot, with Myles Hartfield.

Shaq Thompson and Cory Littleton are Carolina's best coverage linebackers. Strongside LB Frankie Luvu has one interception, returning it for a touchdown, but is just as effective in a pass rushing role. His seven sacks are second on the team to go along with 13 pressures and three passes broken up.

Sep 19, 2021; New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (2) is sacked by Carolina Panthers defensive end Brian Burns (53). Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

The Panthers have a capable defensive line capable of disrupting quarterbacks inside or on the edge. Pro Bowl DE Brian Burns is among the league's best edge rushers. Burns has a team-high 12.5 sacks, 30 pressures, and 17 tackles for loss. However, he's also dealing with an ankle injury that kept him out of Friday's practice and puts his status in doubt.

Without Burns, Marquis Haynes (5 sacks, 15 pressures) and rookie Amare Barno will get more reps in his place. More will also be expected from third-year DE Yetur Gross-Matos, who has just 2.5 sacks and 11 pressures on the year.

The Panthers will also test the New Orleans interior with DTs Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis. Brown and Ioannidis have just two combined sacks, but 19 QB hits from the inside.

What to Expect

New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) catches the ball against Carolina Panthers cornerback CJ Henderson (24). Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY

New Orleans will undoubtedly look to establish their running game, but may be tempted to unleash the passing attack after watching Detroit and Tampa Bay shred Carolina coverage for 747 yards.

If they do, a reshuffled offensive line will have to hold up against the Panthers pass rush. The Saints may get a break if Burns doesn't play, but could also be without their own top blocker in Ramczyk. Interior matchups with two backup guards will be especially crucial.

Alvin Kamara has 46 receptions in ten career games against Carolina, but for just 353 yards. The Saints could look to unleash the dynamic back in matchups against linebackers Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu. He could be most valuable on screens to slow down the Panthers pass rush.

New Orleans Saints Taysom Hill (7) throws a pass to running back Alvin Kamara (41) against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Look for Taysom Hill to make some throws when he lines up in the Saints modified wildcat formation. He has the arm to make throws down the field and it would also keep the Panthers defense off balance to open up running plays from that alignment later in the game.

Wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed could have big days against the depleted Carolina corners. The Panthers have allowed five wideouts to have over 70 yards in the last three games, including 207 to Tampa Bay's Mike Evans last week. Olave pulled in nine passes for 147 yards against the Panthers in the Week 3 matchup between these teams.

In addition to Olave’s big outing, the Saints also got 353 yards passing and even got four catches and 105 yards from the normally invisible Tre'Quan Smith against Carolina. What killed New Orleans that afternoon was three turnovers, including a Kamara fumble returned for a touchdown.

If the Saints could avoid those self-inflicted mistakes that have plagued them most of the year, they might be able to put up some nice offensive numbers against a reeling Panthers defense.