Saints Runners Need to Power Through Panthers in Season Finale

New Orleans has used a ball-control attack centered around their running game with success in the last three weeks. Here's how that strategy might play out in their season finale against Carolina.

Author:
Bob Rose
Publish date:
Jan 7, 2023 3:15 PM EST

In this story:

New Orleans Saints

The 7-9 New Orleans Saints and 6-10 Carolina Panthers meet in the Caesars Superdome on Sunday afternoon to close out the season for each team. Carolina has already beaten the Saints once, taking a 22-14 decision in Week 3.

New Orleans has been erratic on the offensive side all year. The unit has been plagued by injuries, turnovers, penalties, poor play-calling, and ineffective play. The Saints rank 19th in total offense, averaging 335.6 yards per game.

They'll face a Panthers defense that has talent at all three levels, but have also dealt with injuries throughout the year. Carolina's defense gives up an average of 353 yards per contest, ranking 22nd in the league.

The Saints have been ultra conservative in their play-calling the last few weeks, especially in the second half. Andy Dalton will make his 14th straight start to finish the year. That should come as no surprise, but will New Orleans be able to run the ball to support the 35-year-old quarterback and their outstanding defense?

Saints Rushing Attack

- 20.2 points per game (22nd)

- 115 rushing yards/game (19th)

- 12 touchdowns (22nd)

- 4.2 per rush (21st)

- 40.8% 3rd Down Percentage (14th)

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

After being held to under 90 yards rushing for five straight games from Weeks 9 through 13, the Saints have had a late season surge on the ground. Over their last three contests, New Orleans has averaged over 138 with their ground game.

Dynamic RB Alvin Kamara hasn't had his best year by any stretch, but leads the Saints with 790 yards rushing. Kamara has one 100-yard outing and four more of at least 70 yards, but three of those have come the last three weeks. He also has just four touchdowns on the year, a career low.

Sep 19, 2021; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) runs for yardage against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Versatile threat Taysom Hill is second on the team with a career-high 551 yards on the ground and has a team-high 7 rushing scores. Hill’s usage has been inconsistent this year, but he's coming off a career-high 14 rushing attempts against Philadelphia.

A bruising runner with breakaway speed, Hill has been the team’s best inside runner. Kamara is most effective off-tackle and in space, but has picked up most of his yards between the tackles this year. Both players are terrific cutback runners. Fullback Adam Prentice has been used successfully in short yardage situations in recent weeks.

New Orleans has dealt with injuries along their offensive line all year. Starting LG Andrus Peat (ankle) has been ruled out this week, with RG Cesar Ruiz already on injured reserve. Ryan Ramczyk could miss the game with a hip injury that forced him out against the Eagles.

Calvin Throckmorton will again step in for Ruiz, while Josh Andrews is likely to play in Peat's spot. If Ramczyk can't go, second-year OT Landon Young could step in. We could also see veteran James Hurst switch to the right side and rookie first-round pick Trevor Penning get his first start at LT.

Panthers Run Defense

- 22.9 points per game (22nd)

- 121.4 rushing yards/game (19th)

- 17 touchdowns (23rd)

- 4.3 per rush (11th)

- 85 tackles for loss

- 41.7% 3rd Down Percentage (25th)

Sep 25, 2022; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) is tackled by Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn (8) and linebacker Shaq Thompson (7). Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina has allowed three 100-yard rushers and four more of at least 70 on the ground. They've held just five teams under 100 yards rushing, but three of those have come in their last four games.

Leading the Panthers in tackles are outside linebackers Shaq Thompson (128, 8 for loss) and Frankie Luvu (105, 17 for loss). Each are relatively undersized, but are physical players with good pursuit speed. Damien Wilson mans the middle, while veteran Cory Littleton provides depth at all three spots.

The Panthers have a talented, but thin, defensive line. Ends Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos are disruptive but are more effective as pass rushers. Burns is dealing with an ankle injury that kept him out of Friday's practice and has him listed as a game-time decision. If he can't go, his snaps will go to Marquise Haynes and rookie Amare Barno.

Sep 19, 2021; New Orleans Saints Taysom Hill (7) is brought down by Carolina Panthers safety Jeremy Chinn (21). Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY

Defensive tackles Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis have been erratic against the run. They've combined for ten tackles for loss, but at times have been blown off the ball. They are backed up by NT Bravvion Roy and Marquan McCall.

Safeties Jeremy Chinn and Xavier Woods are outstanding open field tacklers that can each be effective in the tackle box. Even with missing six games earlier this year, Chinn is fourth on the team in tackles. Myles Hartfield provides solid depth at either safety spot.

What to Expect

Sep 25, 2022; New Orleans Saints center Erik McCoy (78) and guard Andrus Peat (75) gets ready for the play against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

Over the back half of the year, the Saints have shown that they want their offensive identity to be a ball-control attack centered around the running game. It's resulted in some infuriatingly conservative play-calling, but New Orleans is just 1-6 when they fail to rush for 100 yards.

The Saints had just moderate success on the ground against Carolina in a Week 3 loss. They picked up 84 yards rushing, but averaged less than 3.9 per carry.

Alvin Kamara's performance has been spotty against the division foe. He's scored 8 touchdowns in ten career games against the Panthers. However, he's averaged only 46 yards rushing per game against them and has been held to under 100 scrimmage yards four times. He and Taysom Hill will have crucial matchups with Panthers linebackers Shaq Thompson and Frankie Luvu in space.

New Orleans will need to control the Carolina defensive line for their runners to even get into open field. It might seem like a daunting task with two, perhaps three, backups in a starting role. An underrated X-Factor might be C Erik McCoy.

Since McCoy returned from a four-game injury absence, the Saints have averaged over 138 yards on the ground and close to 4.6 per carry. In McCoy's 11 full games, New Orleans has averaged 140.5 yards rushing. They've managed to average a paltry 59 on the ground when he was sidelined.

New Orleans Saints Taysom Hill (7) hands the ball off to running back Alvin Kamara (41) against the Cincinnati Bengals. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints have been effective using Kamara and Hill side-by-side in a modified wildcat formation. It's kept defenses off balance, gives each player multiple options, and allows both to read the defensive alignment.

It's also been one of the few ways that the Saints offense has shown imagination this season and could possibly be one of the keys finishing the year with a four-game winning streak.