Analysis: What Does Aaron Rodgers' New Deal Mean For Russell Wilson's Future With Seahawks?
After two years of drama revolving around non-stop trade and retirement rumors, star quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers now officially have 200 million reasons why they won't be parting ways any time soon.
According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Green Bay struck a deal with Rodgers on a record-smashing four-year, $200 million extension. The reported contract for the two-time defending MVP would annihilate Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes' current deal earning $45 million annually and he would also earn a record $153 million in guaranteed money, which equates to 76.5 percent of his deal.
Though it ensures that a long-time rival in the NFC will remain a top Super Bowl contender for the foreseeable future, the news of Rodgers' massive extension doesn't impact the Seahawks directly. They don't play in the same division and at least for next year, they aren't scheduled to play one another in the regular season.
But the contractual agreement between Rodgers and Green Bay will assuredly have ripple effects in regard to the future of Seattle's own quarterback Russell Wilson. In the past, agent Mark Rodgers has built the framework of his client's prior two extensions off of benchmarks established by Aaron Rodgers' previous contracts.
Case in point? In 2013, Rodgers signed a five-year, $110 million contract to become the highest-paid player in NFL history. Two years later, Wilson came close to matching that contract from an annual salary standpoint by agreeing to terms with the Seahawks on a four-year, $87.5 million extension to become the second highest paid player in the sport.
Then in 2018, Rodgers and the Packers agreed to terms on a four-year extension worth $134 million with nearly a $60 million signing bonus. Going down to the wire with a deadline he and his agent set, Wilson surpassed Rodgers to briefly become the highest-paid player in NFL history by signing a four-year, $140 million extension worth $35 million annually in April 2019.
Flashing forward to the present, Rodgers' latest extension once again will set the baseline for what Wilson and his representatives will push for when negotiations begin for a new deal next year. But unlike 2019, it's worth wondering if the Seahawks will be willing to pay anything close to that price point. Or if Wilson even will want to sign the dotted line to stay in the Pacific Northwest beyond 2023.
Like Rodgers, Wilson has been engulfed in trade speculation for the past two offseasons that he helped create on his own accord. During a pair of interviews following Super Bowl LV, he aired his grievances about poor pass protection and not being involved enough in personnel decisions among other things. Later on, his agent revealed four teams he would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to play for, throwing gas on the fire.
Ultimately, the Seahawks didn't entertain the idea of trading Wilson and the two sides worked to sweep everything under the rug before the 2021 season. So far this offseason, even with rumors persisting and big networks dishing out trade proposals daily, the quarterback has taken a different tone than a year ago, reiterating his love for Seattle and desire to stay put in multiple interviews.
As for coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider, while the Seahawks' brain trust admitted they field calls for every player, including Wilson, they have no intention of trading him and aren't "shopping the quarterback." Carroll told reporters at the combine that he feels the trade chatter hasn't been near as amplified this year in large part due to Wilson's actions.
"I think Russ was pretty clear of his intentions. You know, that he plans on playing here, being with us. And so I think he contributed to that," Carroll said.
Based on what Wilson, Carroll, and Schneider have said publicly in recent months, all signs point to the franchise quarterback being under center for the Seahawks in September. But when it comes to his future beyond this season, it's anyone's guess what will happen next.
If Seattle bounces back next season and returns to the playoffs behind a strong season from Wilson, both sides may want to re-up their commitment to one another. With the salary cap set to explode coming out of a pandemic with a new television deal enriching all 32 clubs over the next several years, absorbing a deal in the realm of Rodgers' new extension around $50 million annually will be far more feasible.
Of course, the Seahawks may look at such a contract as too rich for a player who will turn 34 years old in November and doesn't have a resume that stacks up favorably with Rodgers on the awards front. While he has nearly as many Pro Bowl selections, he doesn't have four MVP awards and four First-Team All-Pro selections to his name as Rodgers does, which could complicate negotiations further. They may prefer paying him closer to Mahomes than re-setting the quarterback market.
There's also always the possibility that 2022 doesn't go well for Seattle and/or Wilson. If the Seahawks remain competitive but Wilson doesn't return to his pre-2021 form or deals with injuries, Schneider may decide it is time to move on at quarterback with a younger, cheaper option rather than hand out an expensive extension for an aging player exiting his prime years.
On the other side of the coin, if the franchise sputters to another last place finish and misses the playoffs again, Seattle may officially enter all-out rebuild mode next offseason. If that happens, most likely No. 3 won't want to be part of that process and the team will be more open to the possibility of dealing him for draft picks to accelerate the rebuild effort.
For now, Wilson will earn $37 million in 2022 and his contract still remains in the top five for highest-paid players in the league. How the Seahawks address their roster in coming weeks and how next season plays out for the player and team in the rugged NFC West will play a decisive role in whether or not the two sides want to extend their partnership beyond 2022 and what a new contract may look like if they do.
