Negative Early-Down Plays Crippling Seahawks' Struggling Offense
Plunging out of the NFC West driver's seat as well as one of the three coveted wild card spots in the process, the Seattle Seahawks have been mired in a dreadful collapse for nearly two months after a red-hot start, losing five of their past six games to free fall to a 7-8 record with two games left to play.
It doesn't take a degree from Harvard to understand what has ailed Seattle during its prolonged slump that has included three consecutive losses at Lumen Field. Without a run game to complement him behind a regressing offensive line, quarterback Geno Smith has pressed and seen his play drop off with five interceptions in the past six games after throwing only four in the first nine games. Defensively, opponents have been able to run the ball at will to sustain long, back-breaking drives and capitalize on defensive breakdowns for explosive pass plays.
While the Seahawks defense has struggled quite a bit in the second half of the season, the biggest difference from their 6-3 start to their recent tail spin has been on the offensive side of the football. As coach Pete Carroll has opined on several occasions after recent losses, including after Saturday's 24-10 defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs when they converted on only two out of 14 conversion opportunities, third-down ineptitude has been a huge problem for Smith and company.
Since a Week 10 loss to Tampa Bay in Munich, per Pro Football Reference, Seattle has moved the chains on only 30.9 percent of its 68 third-down chances. This ranks a dismal 29th in the NFL during that span ahead of only New England, Denver and Houston. Before that season-altering defeat, Smith and his counterparts had converted 46.2 percent of third downs in the first nine games, which ranked a sterling fifth overall.
Whether diagnosing a patient or trying to fix a football team, all major problems require deeper digging to identify symptoms before finding a solution. In the case of the Seahawks, first and second down efficiency have taken a nose dive over the past six games, emerging as the clear and obvious symptom behind the abysmal third down numbers since early November that have plagued the team.
"The issue was about first and second down, it's making those situations shorter so that they're more facilitated to converting," Carroll told reporters on Monday after another rough third down performance in Kansas City. "When you're in third and 10s, like six, seven or something within 10 or more, that's just asking a lot. Let's look at the odds around the league, what does it take to convert, it's hard, and the numbers go totally in favor of the defense. So that's why executing early downs, run the football in the second half, it should have helped us because we did move the ball running the football. And we're trying to get to that."
Prior to flying across the Atlantic to face the Buccaneers, excluding no plays via penalty, the Seahawks ran 413 run and pass plays on first and second down. One of the most productive early down teams in the NFL, they averaged 6.5 yards per play, first in the league ahead of the Bills and Dolphins. They also had 18 total touchdowns on early downs, ranking only behind the Saints and Chiefs, while turning the ball over only 1.8 percent of the time.
But since the Buccaneers exposed them overseas, the Seahawks have taken a 180 degree turn in the wrong direction due to a myriad of factors. On 286 first and second down runs and passes in their past six games, they are averaging nearly a full yard (5.6) less per play and have scored only eight touchdowns, tied for 22nd in the NFL. With Smith getting picked at a higher frequency, they have also suffered from a significant uptick in turnovers, ranking fifth in the league with a 2.8 percent turnover rate.
What's behind the substantial drop off in early down production? For one, though rookie Ken Walker III did eclipse 100 rushing yards in Kansas City on Saturday, Seattle's run game has been non-existent due to injuries in the backfield coupled with poor blocking by the offensive line. For the season, according to Football Outsiders, the team ranks dead last averaging 3.9 rushing yards adjusted based on line play, a clear illustration of the line's struggles creating push and opening up run lanes.
Making matters worse, opponents haven't had much difficulty knifing past blockers to bring down Walker and his running mates in the backfield, particularly pushing around the interior guards and center. The Chiefs racked up five tackles for loss on early downs, marking the second time in five games the Seahawks had at least five negative rushing plays in a single game on first or second down, which has been a prime culprit for their third down opportunities averaging 8.1 yards in distance to go compared to 6.8 yards to go in the first nine games.
In addition, Seattle has also had more negative early down plays in the passing game resulting in zero or negative yardage. While Smith has still completed 68 percent of his first and second down passes in the last six games - only a six percent drop from his first nine games - his passer rating has gone down 14 points while throwing six touchdowns compared to four interceptions and averaging 0.3 less yards per attempt.
Not surprisingly, with longer third downs on a consistent basis thanks to an uptick in negative plays across the board, Smith hasn't been near as effective trying to extend drives. After completing almost 70 percent of his passes with five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 119.1 passer rating on third down in the first nine games, his completion rate has dipped eight percent, his passer rating has plunged 18 points, and his yards per attempt has plummeted from 7.8 yards per attempt to 6.5 in the past six games.
Being the orchestrator of the offense, Smith deserves some of the blame for the regression after a scorching start. At times, he's been a bit too aggressive trying to squeeze the ball into tight windows, leading to his increase in turnovers in the second half. He's also exhibited happy feet at times, not playing with the same poise under pressure he did earlier in the season.
With that said, Seattle's maligned offensive line also deserves a share of the blame while being put in difficult situations trying to pass protect on an average of 3rd and 8. Allowing pressures at a much higher rate than earlier in the season, Smith has been sacked 15 times on third downs in the last six games after only being sacked seven times in the same situations in the first half.
Considering Smith's own decline in play, the scuffling run game, and cracks in the foundation along the offensive line becoming more evident by week, it shouldn't come as a surprise that Seattle has struggled to win football games recently. In each of their five second half losses, they converted on fewer than 50 percent of third downs, failing to sustain drives and forcing a struggling defense back onto the field far too often.
This included being under a 15 percent conversion rate against the Buccaneers and Chiefs, who forced the Seahawks into a season-high 18 first and second down plays producing zero or negative yards.
Still in the playoff hunt despite their December disintegration thus far, Seattle could fix many of the problems bedeviling the team by simply avoiding negative plays on first and second down to stay on schedule. More third down conversions to prolong drives would not only improve chances of finishing drives with points, but it would allow the defense to stay rested on the sideline rather than playing close to 40 minutes on the field as they did in losses to the Raiders and Panthers. Run defense and pass rush should improve by default under such circumstances.
On Saturday, Carroll did see improves in that regard with Walker breaking out in the final two quarters, a sign of positive progress he believes has staying power going into the last two games.
While it may sound like an easy solution, however, the reality is that the Seahawks haven't been able to achieve such means for almost two months. With personnel question marks persisting, two strong defensive opponents remaining on the schedule, and injuries continuing to pile up, it may be quite difficult to find a remedy in the final hour with the season hanging by a thread.
Hey, 12s! Get your Seahawks Tickets from SI Tickets ... HERE!
Want the latest in breaking news and insider information on the Seahawks? Click Here to subscribe to AllSeahawks.com's Newsletter.
Follow All Seahawks.com on Twitter and Facebook
Make sure to subscribe to our daily podcast @lockedonseahawks today! Click here To Listen.
Want even more Seattle Seahawks news? Check out the SI.com team page here.
