Stock Changes for Steelers Rookies
With the NFL regular season officially over for the Pittsburgh Steelers, it feels like the right time to check the temperature on the team's 2022 draft class.
Some guys got more playing time, and we’re contributors on a larger scale than others, but I wanted to focus primarily on how they finished their rookie campaigns. Some finished hot, others maybe not so much. By acknowledging where they started, and the progress they made over the course of the last four months, we can get a feel for where they need to go as things move forward into next season.
Kenny Pickett: Stock Up
Things got off to an extremely bumpy start out of the gate as Pickett received a not-so-warm welcome to the league from some of the better defenses on the Steelers' schedule.
Life is tough for rookie quarterbacks, and it’s important to remember that it’s a process. To Pickett’s credit, he bounced back in impressive fashion by making significant progress during the back half of the schedule. Over the last month of the season, Pickett was playing his best ball, notably engineering a pair of impressive late game-winning drives as the Steelers pushed for a wild card berth.
We started to see him look more comfortable and the playmaking ability we saw on film from his days at Pitt began translating over to the league, which was great to see.
Now the unquestioned starter throughout the off-season, it’s abundantly clear that this is his team moving forward and expectations in year two will understandably grow. Pickett’s main areas for improvement revolve around pocket navigation, and improved processing leading to quicker decisions and more efficient play from the pocket within the structure of the offense.
While Pickett is obviously in the early stages of his career, the supporting cast around him is also really young, and overall, this is a group that's trending upwards. With an intriguing collection of weapons to pair with an improving offensive line, the Steelers have the necessary infrastructure in place to aid in his development.
Ultimately, Pickett’s development is the number one priority for the franchise, and depending on just how rapid his development will be a significant factor in the Steelers getting back to the postseason.
George Pickens: Stock Up
The transition from the SEC to the NFL looked pretty seamless for Pickens as he hit the ground running from the jump. Earning a starting role immediately, Pickens showed off all of the things that littered his college tape: the hands, body control, and contested catch ability, all of which made him a highly regarded prospect in my eyes.
Pickens hauled in nearly 68% of his contested catch opportunities as a rookie which led the NFL among wide receivers with at least 70 targets on the season, per PFF. The offense struggled at times as a whole, but whenever the football was headed toward #14, good things seemed to happen.
There was a lot of hype surrounding him coming out of training camp and preseason, and it’s an understatement to say that he lived up to the billing.
As crazy as it is to believe, Pickens is still just 21 years old. You can already make the case for him as a solid WR2 in the league but he’s very much in the beginning stages of his runway with plenty of untapped potential. There are improvements to be made in regard to his overall route running, both in his route tree and the nuances that come with the position. If he continues taking strides against press coverage, Pickens has a WR1 outlook and scary upside.
The quarterback play should be better moving forward, and through flashes, Pickens has given us every reason to believe that the sky is the limit for him in the near future.
DeMarvin Leal: Stock Down
This could draw some debate, but there's probably not a player on the Steelers' 53-man roster that had a cloudier outlook for the future than DeMarvin Leal.
Shortly after being drafted, Leal put on some additional mass indicating that Pittsburgh likely wanted him to go through a body transformation period to play him as a traditional 3-tech in-base personnel. That's where he played during the preseason, but once T.J. Watt got hurt and the depth behind him struggled, Leal was bumped back outside to the edge spot.
Most of his playing time as a rookie came during that period when the Steelers implemented a 3-3 front and then once again when they were to a 4-4 front later in the season to combat power-rushing teams like Carolina and Baltimore. As a pass rusher, he didn't show the same effectiveness or pass-rushing plan that he flashed in college, as his pass rush win rate ranked 32nd among 41 rookies with 50 or more snaps.
Leal seemed to be more comfortable defending the run outside rather than inside which sort of complicates things because he isn't explosive enough right now to really threaten guys off the edge as a pass rusher. To get the point across here, I don't know exactly where Leal's home is for the future and honestly, I'm not sure the Steelers do either based on what transpired over the course of his rookie season.
Does he slim back down to try to gain some juice and become a full-time edge rusher? Does he bulk up to become a 3-tech? Or is he just a tweener that is going to be a sub-package defender that rushes from different alignments once his pass rushing arsenal becomes more develops with more consistency? It's anyone's guess right now, and while it's definitely not time to hit the panic button yet, there are more questions surrounding his outlook now than we initially believed coming out of training camp.
Calvin Austin III: Stock Down
This one is tough. The speedster was flashing some big play ability early on in training camp prior to injuring his foot. There were very few details about his injury and what exactly the timeline was for a return. After initially attempting to return from a lisfranc sprain mid-season, he suffered a setback and underwent surgery, ending his year.
The Steelers were admittedly surprised that he was available late in the fourth round of the NFL Draft and the value itself was just too good to pass up on. With the additions of Pickens and Austin, the Steelers wide receiver room appeared to be a strength of the team for the foreseeable future.
However, Austin was a day-three pick and those guys, particularly ones who don't contribute in their rookie seasons (due to factors beyond his control) aren't going to influence the organization's draft process. The Steelers desperately need a slot receiver in the offseason, and while Austin could certainly put his name in the hat to be the guy there, it's a big projection considering he played nearly 91% of his snaps outside during his final season at Memphis.
The speed element that Austin could potentially bring would be a massive boost to an offense lacking in big plays in the passing game but we'll have to see how his diminutive frame (5-8, 170 pounds) holds up at the next level. By all accounts, Austin should be healthy and ready to go for off-season workouts, but he's going to have a lot of competition for playing time next season.
Connor Heyward: Stock Up
Heyward was a pleasant surprise for the Steelers during the 2022 season. With the Steelers jettisoning Chase Claypool to Chicago in exchange for what is now the first overall selection in the 2nd round of the 2023 NFL Draft, there were vacated slot snaps available for the taking. Heyward was one of the many different bodies that were inserted into the rotation, and he made the most of those opportunities.
Throughout training camp and the regular season, Heyward showcased soft hands and the capability to pluck the ball out of the air away from his frame evidenced by his huge catch down the seam in the regular season finale. He's not a traditional tight end by any means, but he also added seven special teams value signaling his value to remain on the roster.
There's a realistically lower ceiling for Heyward offensively because his size is always likely to prevent him from being an effective in-line blocker. But he does well in space, and found solutions on split zone assignments by just cutting defenders instead of trying to take them head on, which was a losing cause earlier in the season.
Heyward's aware of what he does well and where he has limitations, but it's clear that he does carry value both in the short term and long term. With Zach Gentry entering free agency, the Steelers will search for a TE2. Could that be Heyward? It's likely that they'll need to be diligent in adding a proficient blocker to the room which is clearly not the strong suit of Freiermuth or Heyward, but you can't discount the possibility that he'll still find a way on the field next season in more ways than just special teams.
He's trending upwards and one way or another, he's a player to bet on making the 53-man roster next season which is impressive for a sixth-rounder.
Mark Robinson: Stock Up
Robinson only received a helmet one time prior to the final three weeks of the season as he was buried on the depth chart behind Myles Jack, Robert Spillane and Devin Bush. That all began to change in Week 15 when the Steelers traveled to play the Panthers and Robinson's physicality showed up on the film, just not the box score.
The following week, he earned even more playing time against a Ravens front that was very intent on executing their gap run scheme and Robinson showed himself fairly well in this matchup. There are clear athletic limitations that are quite obvious, but he's a traditional thumper (albeit on the smaller side) who just wants to knock your head off.
Robinson's style of play isn't necessarily the flavor of most NFL defenses anymore as the position has sort of begun to prioritize athleticism more in recent years. However, the NFL is cyclical, and with more teams now starting to shift back into power football and leaning on the ground game, perhaps a player like Robinson carries more value.
While it's encouraging that the coaches saw something they liked and began to give him more playing time over the final couple weeks of the seasons, the more likely outcome moving forward is that he's a special teams contributor. He's going to need to show out in this regard, which starts by being a more controlled and sound tackler.
Robinson has the physicality and nasty demeanor to make a long career out of doing the dirty jobs such as running down kicks.
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