4 Things to Watch: Steelers vs Colts
The Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to Indianapolis to take on the struggling Indianapolis Colts who are fresh off of a head coaching change.
These are two teams that definitely had higher hopes for how their respective seasons have turned out thus far. Nonetheless, this should be an entertaining matchup with plenty of entertaining storylines to dive into.
Let's take a look at what you should be watching for on Monday night.
The Formula to Slowing Down Matt Ryan
When the Colts traded for Matt Ryan during the offseason, they envisioned him being the missing component to finally take this team over the hump. As it turns out, they're headed the wrong way, and Ryan has been more of a problem than an answer.
To be fair, the Colts have had a plethora of offensive line issues, having to resort to using multiple different combinations, and have yet to remedy their issues upfront. However, it's very clear that Ryan is well past his prime and is likely in the very final stages of his career as an NFL starting quarterback.
Ryan's been under constant siege this season as he's been pressured on essentially a third of his dropbacks this season and he's been unable to be remotely effective largely because of this. According to Pro Football Focus, Ryan's ten turnover-worthy throws while under pressure are the fifth most in the NFL despite him being benched for a couple of weeks prior to Jeff Saturday's promotion.
The Steelers' defensive front should have their way on Monday night which means Ryan is likely to give the Steelers chances to come away with takeaways. It's reasonable to expect yet another impactful performance from Alex Highsmith who will be up against a rookie left tackle in Bernhard Raimann.
Colts Defense Strong Up the Middle
Indianapolis comes into the week ranking 7th in EPA/play despite missing their best player, Shaquille Leonard for most of the season. The Colts have admirably responded well to the challenge, and a lot of that credit should be given to the middle of their defense, most notably Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner and Bobby Okereke.
Stewart's the guy who stands out most on film, simply because of how dominant he's been this year when playing the run. A powerful, destructive force along the front, Stewart's 24 run stops are tied with Aaron Donald for the league lead among defensive linemen.
Buckner's the more well-known Colts defensive lineman, having been selected to a pair of Pro Bowls already but he's been his normal, productive self. Bucker's racked up 20 run stops while also providing consistent pressure in the passing game with 33 pressures so far this season.
Okereke is the prototypical Gus Bradley linebacker, thanks to his ability to play in space in coverage while also being stout in the run game. You'll see Okereke carry receivers vertically or across the field on deep over routes and he has the ability to match up in man coverage as well.
Despite not being blessed with more well-known superstars all over the place, the Colts defense has been playing good ball in spite of an anemic offense.
Where Kenny Pickett Will Need to Improve Moving Forward
Pickett showed real flashes in the first half of last week's game against the Cincinnati Bengals. The rookie first-round pick posted the NFL's highest passer rating against the blitz last week with most of his damage coming before the halftime break.
Pickett was once again about to connect on a deep go ball attempt to George Pickens which makes back-to-back weeks where he hit on one of those attempts down the right sideline. For all of the good that came out of last week, there are still some major needs for improvement, starting with the intermediate passing game. On throws 10-20 yards down the field, Pickett ranks dead last in completion percentage (34%), yards per attempt (5.6) and passer rating (36.0).
The Colts' defense does a pretty good job limiting opposing signal callers from hitting chunk plays down the field. Indianapolis has only allowed nine completions over 20 yards down the field, making opposing quarterbacks methodically work their way down the field. To make matters even more difficult, the Colts' defense has also allowed the fewest number of completions in the intermediate area amongst NFL teams.
Since the bye week, Matt Canada has shown more of a willingness to call crossing routes and generally being better about scheming more things open down the field for his quarterback. Pittsburgh will need to jumpstart their intermediate passing game, perhaps by incorporating some more play-action passing concepts in order to stretch defenses both vertically and horizontally.
The Colts Offense Runs Through Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr.
If you're a fantasy football owner, you're likely well aware of Jonathan Taylor's well-documented struggles so far this season. To give you an idea of just how bad things have been going for the Colts' running game so far through 11 weeks, they rank 31st in rushing EPA/play.
The Steelers' defense has rebounded quite nicely this year after being historically poor last season against the run, allowing the most rushing yards in franchise history. Still, a player as physically gifted as Taylor isn't to be taken lightly.
Taylor is a one-cut type of running back who possesses incredible contact balance to pair with elite long speed making him capable of changing the outcome of the game with just one touch.
Pittman Jr. has been a rising player since the Colts selected him in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. At 6'4, 220 pounds, Pittman is the prototypical X receiver that teams covet. A true three-level threat, Pittman has the ability to get in and out of his breaks efficiently for a player his size.
It should also be noted that the Colts will move him inside where he's the primary target on passing plays. Last week against the Eagles, he targeted seven times, catching four passes for 61 yards while aligned in the slot. This poses a similar issue that the Steelers ran into last week against Tee Higgins where Joe Burrow repeatedly went to Higgins in the slot whenever he recognized man coverage.
If the Steelers begin to notice the Colts' tendency of moving Pittman inside, they should make an adjustment to their rotation by pushing Cam Sutton inside and playing James Pierre on the boundary in order to avoid Matt Ryan targeting the smaller Arthur Maulet in coverage.
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