Breaking Down How the Lightning Can Clinch the Atlantic Division

Tampa still controls its own destiny

Apr 6, 2026; Buffalo, New York, USA; Buffalo Sabres left wing Jason Zucker (17) watches as Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) makes a save during the second period at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images / Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Lightning enter the final stretch of the regular season in a strong position, sitting second in the Eastern Conference, just two points behind the Carolina Hurricanes.

Despite a lopsided loss to the Buffalo Sabres -- who also sit at 102 points -- the Lightning remain firmly in control of their playoff positioning. More importantly, they still control their own destiny in the Atlantic Division race.

Why the Lightning Still Control Their Destiny

Even without owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo, Tampa Bay holds a critical advantage thanks to the NHL’s tiebreaking structure.

The first tiebreaker is regulation wins (RW)—arguably the most important metric late in the season since it excludes overtime and shootout results. The Lightning are currently tied with the Sabres in regulation wins, but Buffalo has played one more game, giving Tampa Bay a slight edge in opportunity.

Another milestone reached for 8️⃣6️⃣

Congrats, KUUUUUUUCH! pic.twitter.com/gZBomMRiGy

— x - Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) April 6, 2026

Tampa Bay also holds a comfortable cushion over the Montreal Canadiens in this category (39-32).

If teams remain tied, the next tiebreaker is regulation plus overtime wins (ROW). Here’s where the Lightning gain even more separation, owning a two-win advantage over both Buffalo and Montreal (44-42).

Beyond that, the tiebreakers move to:

Total wins (including shootouts)
Head-to-head points
Goal differential
Goals scored

However, it’s unlikely any race gets that deep into the tiebreaker list—especially since Tampa Bay lost the season series to both Buffalo and Carolina.

The Path to Winning the Atlantic

So what does Tampa Bay actually need to do?

With five games remaining, the Lightning can secure the Atlantic Division title without any help from other teams.

Win 4 of 5 games: Clinch the division outright
Win 3 of 5 games: Need at least one Buffalo loss

That control is crucial, as Tampa Bay dictates its own outcome regardless of what the Sabres or Canadiens do.

The Lightning are also just one more point away from guaranteeing they won’t fall into a wild card spot.

Looking Ahead

The schedule presents a mixed challenge. Tampa Bay still has three difficult road games ahead before returning home to face the Detroit Red Wings and New York Rangers—two more manageable matchups.

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A win in Ottawa would go a long way in stabilizing their position and rebuilding momentum after the loss to Buffalo.

As for the race for the Eastern Conference’s top seed, the Hurricanes currently hold that spot—and their path is favorable. Carolina’s remaining schedule includes games against the Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Utah Mammoth, Philadelphia Flyers, and New York Islanders.

If Carolina wins out, the Eastern Conference race is effectively out of reach, they simply need to finish with more points than Tampa Bay.

Meanwhile, Buffalo’s schedule is relatively light, featuring the Rangers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Blackhawks before a tougher finale against the Dallas Stars.

Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Picture

The Bottom Line

For Tampa Bay, the job is simple: Take care of business.

If the Lightning handle their remaining games, they will win the Atlantic Division and secure a more favorable first-round matchup against a wild card opponent. But if they stumble, they risk sliding into a much tougher path, potentially facing a familiar division rival right out of the gate.

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