Tampa Bay Lighting vs. Montreal Canadiens Series Predictions and X-Factors

Tampa needs to be sharp against a team built for the playoffs.

Dec 9, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Darren Raddysh (43) celebrates with teammates including forward Nikita Kucherov (86) and defenseman Max crozier (24) and forward Anthony Cirelli (71) after scoring a goal against the Montreal Canadiens during the third period at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images / Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Lightning are hosting the Montreal Canadiens in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. These two teams have the scene set for them, with previous history like their 2021 Stanley Cup final, their connections, with one of the all-time great Tampa Bay Lightning players managing the Canadiens (Martin St. Louis), and their place in the Atlantic division.

Lightning vs Canadiens: 3 Defining Storylines Shaping a Heated Playoff Series

But, with all that said, the opener is rapidly approaching, and the Lightning will need to be on their a-game to defeat the Canadiens, even if the Bolts seem like the superior team. The Habs, led by Martin St. Louis are a physical, deep team that have already given Tampa trouble. Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and the rest of the Canadiens have already proven a tough test for Tampa, showcased by the 2-2 record this season, with Tampa winning one in shoot-out fashion.

I predict the Lighting to get the job done in 6 games, the Habs physical style of play and ability to control the blue line match them up with Tampa well, proven in the most recent matchup where Tampa only managed to get 18 shots on net. But the difference here is Tampa's experience. Montreal suits up the NHL's youngest club with an average age just shy of 26 years old and Tampa has long been a playoff team, although they have yet to win without Steven Stamkos.

But more than the star power, and the experience there is one clear advantage, and that's in the net.

X-Factor: Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy

Vasilevskiy went 39-15-4 to lead the NHL in wins. He had a 2.31 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage likely enough to claim his second Vezina Trophy. Vasilevskiy has won the Stanley Cup, done it in clutch moments, and has the clear advantage over the rookie.

VASI ⚡️

Andrei Vasilevskiy finds himself in elite company with the ninth 30-win season of his already storied career! pic.twitter.com/XkOSAfTjuJ

— NHL (@NHL) March 13, 2026

Now some other predictions from our insiders here at OnSi

David Eversole

My prediction is Tampa Bay in six games.

X-Factor: How do the Lightning plate on home ice? They’ve been really bad there in recent playoff series and struggled in game ones overall losing 3 of last 4. Curious to see how Montreal's rookie goalie (Jakub Dobes) performs in his first playoff game.

Will Andrei Vasilevskiy get hot and shut down a Habs team that doesn’t shoot a ton, but makes the most of their chances (1st in shooting percentage for shots on goal)?

Apr 15, 2026; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Brandon Hagel (38) shoots the puck against the New York Rangers in the third period at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Ethan Skolnick

Lightning in six.

This won't be an easy series; we saw the Canadiens stifle the Lightning in the last meeting in Tampa on April 9, winning 4-1, and that play style will translate to the playoffs. And now Montreal has made positive adjustments to its defensive pairings. Montreal was remarkably healthy in the regular season, with 10 players playing at least 77 games, and the chemistry built should be helpful now. And there is starpower with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield up front. But Tampa has more of it overall. As for experience, the difference in net will decide this. Andrei Vasilevskiy has 67 postseason wins; Jakub Dobes has one. While they are similar in style, they are not in stature, and Vasilevskiy remains near the top of his game.

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