Perfect DFS Showdown Lineup for Texans-Steelers: Use Nico Collins, Kenneth Gainwell
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Wild Card Weekend comes to an end tonight as the Texans take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh. We have seen a whole bunch of entertaining and, sometimes surprising results thus far this weekend. We may yet see another one again tonight. As for it's betting outlook, the Texans are (3.0) point favorites with and Over/Under of (38.5) points. They are saying that it will be low-scoring, but that does not mean that we have a bad DFS Slate to play. This is who we can use to find gold at the end of the rainbow.
Best MVP/Captain Picks
When chasing upside, Nico Collins is a trustworthy pick. He is the most likely touchdown scorer in the game (+150) with the highest non-QB yards projection (71.5). The Steelers are 28th Ranked in Coverage.
Kenneth Gainwell is our other high-upside play. He very well may have the most touches of any player in this game. He will have a 40%, or so, chance to score a touchdown. If any player can get in space and expose this Texans defense, it will be Gainwell.
Best MVP/Captain Picks
- Nico Collins
- Kenneth Gainwell
Quarterback: CJ Stroud vs Aaron Rodgers
CJ Stroud has the best advantage of the weekend, facing a Steelers secondary that is 28th versus Quarterbacks. Given his price this week, Stroud averages about 1.3x of his salary. Stroud is a safe play, but not quite a high-upside play as he has zero games this year of >30 fantasy points.
Aaron Rodgers faces the toughest matchup of the weekend. The Texans are the FPI 2nd Best Defense in the Playoffs (Seahawks) and they are 3rd versus Quarterbacks. In Rodgers' last three games against Top-10 coverage's, he has failed to hit double-digit fantasy points.
Start CJ Stroud, not Aaron Rodgers.
Best Running Back Picks
Woody Marks is not 100%, but he will play tonight. Per betting odds, Marks project to have nearly 80% of rushing attempts tonight. He may be volatile but, without Jawhar Jordan, Marks will have a high-floor of no less than 60% of attempts. The Texans are a bit over-average in pass-rate (56%), which makes Marks <50% to score. The Steelers are 8th versus Running Backs.
Nick Chubb is very risky. Per projections, he should have about 20% of team rushing attempts with a 35% ceiling. He is quite unlikely to score and thus, a non-use.
Jaylen Warren should command about 50-60% of this backfield tonight. It will be tough as the Texans are 9th versus Running Backs. We project Warren to have about a 35% chance to score tonight. That will be his boom-or-bust scenario.
Kenneth Gainwell is probably the better Steeler to use. He will have about 25-30% of team rushing attempts, but also a 15% Target Share. Gainwell projects for the 3rd most receiving yards on the Steelers tonight (30.5), but with the best chance to score a touchdown, yet still (+210) to do so.
Best Running Back Picks
- Woody Marks
- Kenneth Gainwell
Best Wide Receiver Picks
A battle thats not being talked about enough for Texans vs Steelers
— AyooNoah (@AyooTexanNation) January 12, 2026
Joey Porter Jr vs Nico Collins
Which ever player wins this matchup, their team wins this game pic.twitter.com/yT7reNLH9S
Nico Collins is the highest salaried player in this slate, and for good reason. Collins has 28% of team receiving yards on the season. His Target Share in the Red Zone is also nearly 30%. He is projected to 2nd most yards of any player tonight, running back or wide receiver. In PPR, this makes him perhaps to most valuable player. The Steelers are also just 27th versus Wide Receivers.
Jayden Higgins is the WR2. However, that should only command him about (3) total targets, on an average. Higgins is explosive with (12.8) Yards per Reception, so it is possible to find big-play returns against a bad secondary. Nonetheless, Higgins also projects a Target Share under 15%, which makes him a true risk versus reward play. I find the risk higher.
Christian Kirk is the slot option in this offense. His Target Share in, and outside of the Red Zone is nearly the same to Higgins. He has less explosive upside, so I would rather fade Kirk in this spot.
DK Metcalf is back after a two-game suspension. He should step right back into his >20% Target Share. Metcalf only has (6) Touchdowns on the year, despite being the WR1. The Texans are 5th versus Wide Receivers. I do not like Metcalf in 1v1 situations. He is more physical than crisp.
All other Steelers Wide Receivers are highly risky, in my analysis. Adam Thielen, Calvin Austin III, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling can range for 5% to 15% in Target Share. Against a very stout defense, their upsides will render very limited.
Nico Collins is the only great Wide Reciever pick.
Best Tight End Picks
Dalton Schultz is one of the highest-volume Tight Ends in the NFL. He is averaging (6.0) Targets per Game with a (80.4%) Catch-Rate. Schultz is limited in upside with (3) Touchdowns on the year and (9.6) Yards per Reception. Nonetheless, the Steelers are 30th versus Tight Ends, and I find Schultz to be underpriced.
Pat Freiermuth is the clear TE1 on this team with Darnell Washington on the IR. He should now work to be 2nd on the team in Target Share, even ahead of Kenneth Gainwell. Freiermuth should see around 20% of Targets, being the same in the Red Zone. The Texans are weakest against Tight Ends, ranking 13th.
Jonnu Smith will also work to a moderate role. His projected Target Share will be about 10-12%. At <$3,000 in salary, this is actually very play-able, requiring very little for 1x of salary.
Best Tight End Picks
- Dalton Schultz
- Pat Freiermuth
- Jonnu Smith
Kicker: Ka'imi Fairbairn vs Chris Boswell
Texans K Ka'imi Fairbairn, who tied an NFL RECORD with 44 made field goals, did NOT make NFL All-Pro.
— Will Kunkel (@WillKunkelV) January 10, 2026
Wild.
Ka'imi Fairbairn is setting NFL records this year. He is the K1 in Fantasy Football, averaging (3.3) Attempts per Game. Fairbairn is also (91.3%) accurate, with all four misses only being beyond (50) Yards. As for the weather, it will be clear with light-to-moderate winds — nothing that we are scared of.
Chris Boswell entered a head-space last week that we do not like. He nearly blew the same with a late-game miss against the Ravens. Despite his legend of being ultra-good, Boswell is actually just (84.4%) accurate on the season with (1.9) Attempts per Game.
Ka'imi Fairbairn is an elite, but also the only kicker option tonight.
Defense/Special Teams
Both defensive units are elite in regards to key defensive metrics. The Texans are 8th in Sacks and 3rd in Takeaways. The Steelers are 6th in Sacks and 4th in Takeaways. However, the opposing offenses will fight back. The Texans are 9th in Sacks Allowed and 1st in Giveaways. The Steelers are also 9th in Sacks Allowed and 5th in Giveaways.
We would best not play a defense tonight.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.