Prioritize Christian McCaffrey Over Puka Nacua in Tonight's DraftKings DFS Showdown

The big payouts continue from DraftKings showdown contests. Last Thursday night, two teams took him $300,000, edging out 19 other entries ($950) by 0.25 fantasy points. The best team constructions weren’t entered in this contest.

A.J. Barner ($2,800 – 12.20) over Seattle Defense ($4,000 – 11.00)
Marvin Harrison, Captain over Kyler Murray with a few variations

Week 4 DraftKings TNF Winning Lineup — Week 4 DraftKings TNF Winning Showdown Lineup | DraftKings

Zach Charbonnet proved to be the best skill position value, while AJ Barner (4.36X fantasy points per $1,000 invested) proved to be the top low-end filler despite not landing on the winning ticket.

The unconventional build in this slate stemmed from starting a defense against a captain quarterback selection. In addition, Sam Darnold bare at quarterback was an outlier in team construction.

This contest had 88,217 twenty-dollar entries, with 19.130 teams receiving a payout for their investment.

On Thursday night, the San Francisco 49ers travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams. In my 49ers/Rams game preview article, I included some DraftKings prop lines with player write-ups to highlight their potential value in this matchup.

49ers-Rams Quick Glance

My first take on this game is that the Rams should control the clock on the ground with success from their defense due to the 49ers missing three receiving options (George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings). The 49ers can’t help but feature Christian McCaffrey, while Puka Nacua should be 100% rostered. He won’t due to many entries trying to beat the favorites on this board with outlier teams.

The 49ers will have great value pricing at their receiver positions, but can any of them score over 10.00 fantasy points to land on the winning ticket?

The game over/under (44.5) is coming down, but it is still higher than I expected. Based on this and the point spread (Rams by 8.5 points), the predicted final score should be about 27 to 17 in favor of Los Angeles.

Here’s a look at this week’s top skill players:

Week 5 TNF Quarterbacks

Week 5 TNF QB Fantasy Football Projections — Shawn Childs

I have Stafford projected to pass for 239 yards and two touchdowns, which is plenty high enough to land him in this showdown starting lineup. His fantasy points per $1,000 value (1.62) is relatively low, suggesting he could get knocked off the ticket if the Rams score two rushing touchdowns and one passing.

Over four games, San Francisco’s defense has held quarterbacks to 5.6 yards per pass attempt, with no team passing for more than 207 yards (150/0, 207/3, 159/1, and 174/1). Despite the appearance of success, wide receivers have caught 66.1% of their targets by catching more of their balls close to the line of scrimmage (10.8 yards per catch).

With Nick Bosa out for the season, Stafford should have a longer passing window, and he has two elite wideouts to make San Francisco’s defense pay for any coverage mistakes. Last year, the Rams’ starting quarterbacks had two dull showings (221/1 and 160/1) against the 49ers.

I sense that the 49ers’ defense isn’t as good as it has played, suggesting a passing correction is in order for this game.

Mac Jones handled himself well in his two spot starts (279/3 and 284/1). He averaged 40 passes while relying on Christian McCaffrey (140 yards), Ricky Pearsall (173 yards), and Jauan Jennings (89) for 72.1% of his passing yards.

The Rams’ defense will get after the quarterback (14 sacks). They’ve allowed 31.25 passes per game for 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Chemistry should be a problem for Jones in this game, and Los Angeles will pay extra attention to McCaffrey.

Week 5 TNF Running Backs

Week 5 TNF RB Fantasy Football Projections — Shawn Childs

Christian McCaffrey will be on the winning entry based on his sheer value of touches, highlighted by his pass-catching floor. He’s projected to score at least once, putting him within range of a captain play if this game is low scoring on the Rams’ side of the ball.

The 49ers' offensive line has yet to create a rushing touchdown, with ball carriers gaining fewer than 3.8 yards per rush in all four matchups. Last week, Los Angeles kept Jonathan Taylor and the Colts' run game (21/85/1) in check. They allowed two rushing touchdowns with minimal damage in catches (12) and receiving yards (46) to running backs.

Kyren Williams brings multiple touchdown upside, but he gets minimal targets. In addition, the Rams have been more willing to rotate in a second running back this season. In 2024, Williams played well in both games against San Francisco.

24/89/2 with two catches for 27 yards and one touchdown at home
29/108 on the road with two catches for four yards

He also scored twice at home in 2023 vs. the 49ers (100 combined yards with two TDs and six catches).

Week 5 TNF Wide Receivers

Week 5 TNF WR Projections — Shawn Childs

The showdown format has a unique way of boxing out some lucky touchdowns by low-salaried players by rewarding the best scores at the top of the lineup. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams don’t project well in fantasy points per $1,000 on this slate, despite both being projected to score 20.00 fantasy points.

Based on the pricing and gaps between star players and the weaker backend options, the showdown gamers can’t play the top five players in this game: Nacua, Adams, Williams, Stafford, and McCaffrey.

Each lineup must have at least one player from each team, almost making Christian McCaffrey the lock in this game.

Demarcus Robinson played well in multiple games over the past two seasons (26/371/4 and 31/505/7) for the Rams, suggesting he has the talent to lead the 49ers’ wide receiving corps in targets in this matchup.

DraftKings has Kendrick Bourne as its prop favorite to lead San Francisco in receiving yards outside of McCaffrey.

The 49ers should have Marquez Valdes-Scantling active in this game, and he surprised over a three-game stretch (3/109/2, 2/87/1, and 2/36/1) for the Saints. Mac Jones completed four passes over the final six weeks to Brian Thomas last season, along with eight other passes by Thomas, gaining at least 20 yards.

The overlooked Rams’ wideout is Jordan Whittington, who has been on the field for 61.8% of their snaps, but he only had five catches for 56 yards on six targets this year.

Week 5 TNF Tight Ends

With Tyler Higbee out this week, Davis Allen draws the starting tight end job for the Rams. He has been on the field for 35.9% of the Rams' plays this year while scoring twice (1/13/1 and 1/8/1) over the first two weeks.

The 49ers’ defense allowed a touchdown to a tight end in three consecutive games (NO – 5/49/1, ARI – 8/58/1, and 9/68/1).

The Rams will have Colby Parkinson (30/294/1 in 2024) active this week, along with rookie tight end Terrance Ferguson (on the field for only four plays with no catches).

Jake Tonges comes off a career game (3/58/1 on five targets). The 49ers gave him 72.3% of their snaps over the past three weeks with George Kittle injured. He had 13 targets over this span with two other dull outcomes (4/31 and 2/21).

Tight ends have 19 catches for 197 yards and one score on 25 targets vs. Los Angeles this season.

The Perfect Week 5 Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Lineup On DraftKings

Before writing this article, I entered this team for tonight’s showdown:

Week 5 TNF DraftKings DFS Showdown Lineup — DraftKing

After walking through this matchup, here’s my perfect lineup:

Week 5 TNF Perfect DraftKings DFS Showdown Lineup — DraftKings

I’m taking the position that Puka Nacua finishes behind Davante Adams and Kyren Williams in scoring, with the hopes of fewer teams entering this lineup.