Prop and Projections for Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon Ra-St. Brown, Patrick Mahomes and Every Player for the Lions and Chiefs

Detroit and Kansas City clash on Sunday Night football in Week 6 and both teams are loaded with talent on offense.

Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson rushes as Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks to pass during the second half at Arrowhead Stadium, Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Detroit Lions (4-1) have a big opportunity to knock the Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) down another notch, with a goal of not facing them in the Super Bowl. The Lions are riding high offensively over their four-game winning streak (40.25 points per game). Unfortunately, they lost CB Terrion Arnold last week to a shoulder issue, and S Brian Branch may not play on Sunday with an ankle issue.

Despite starting the season 0-2, Kansas City is within a game of first place in the AFC West, and Rashee Rice is a week away from returning. They have three losses by less than a touchdown, yet they rank second in the AFC to win the Super Bowl (+950).

Lions vs. Chiefs Game Info

TV: NBC

Time: 8:20 PM EST

Odds (DraftKings): Kansas City -2.5

Over/Under: 52.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 6, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the Lions and Chiefs:

Lions Week 6 Projections | Shawn Childs, OnSI Fantasy

Over the past four games, Jared Goff averaged 26.5 passes. He has six touchdowns over his last three starts (207 yards per game). I have him projected to pass for 267 yards, compared to his over/under at DraftKings (239.5). His receivers' outlook (289 yards) paints a higher passing picture, starting with Jameson Williams being more relevant. Prop betters expect him to post more than 1.5 touchdowns (-134o).

Sunday Night Football Rushing Props Lions vs. Chiefs | Shawn Childs, DraftKings

DraftKings set Jahmyr Gibbs over/under at 71.5 rushing yards (-114o). He beat that level in his two home starts (12/94/1 and 15/91/1) while failing short of expectations on the road (9/19, 22/67/2, and 12/54). His playing time (52%) was a season low last week, possibly due to the Lions wanting David Montgomery to shine for his sister, who suffered a life-changing injury in early 2024. I have Gibbs projected to rush for 82 yards.

Saquon Barkley (22/88/1) and Justice Hill (3/76/1) are the only backs to rush for over 71 yards against the Chiefs. Kansas City has struggled against the run (91/438/5 – 4.8 yards per carry).

Gibbs is -160 to score an anytime touchdown. He scored in four consecutive matchups, giving him a score in 17 of his last 23 games (73.9% success rate). Over a six-game stretch, Gibbs would turn a profit with this prop line if he scored four times (+80 on a $100 investment).

Before last week, Montgomery (53%) was on the field for 37.2% of Detroit’s plays. He gained over 43 yards in three games (11/57/1, 12/151/2, and 18/65/1). My projections (42 yards) almost match DraftKings’ prop line (43.5 yards) for him.

Defense vs. Running Backs | Shawn Childs, Fantasy OnSI

The Lions rank seventh in rushing yards allowed (358), with Green Bay and Atlanta playing one fewer game. Backs gained 4.0 yards per carry. Only Quinshon Judkins gained more than 66 yards.

I set Kareen Hunt and Isiah Pacheco’s over/under in rushing yards at 23 and 34 yards, respectively. DraftKings favors Hunt over Pacheco (30.5 to 28.5) in the prop market.

Chiefs Week 6 Player Projections | Shawn Childs, Fantasy OnSI

I have Patrick Mahomes to pass for 246 yards, which is below his DraftKings over/under (265.6 yards). His receiving options project to gain 272 yards, which is tied to the return of Xavier Worthy. I most likely need a manual override (lower due to early wide receiver issues) to increase the Chiefs’ passing outlook.

Over the first four games, the Lions’ defense faced 116 passes (29 per game), which helped improve their passing defense profile. Lamar Jackson (288/3) and Jake Browning (251/3) had the most success passing the ball.

Detroit has multiple injuries in its secondary, suggesting an uptick game for Mahomes.

Sunday Night Football Receiving Props Lions vs. Chiefs | DraftKings

Xavier Worthy appears to be an excellent value in receiving yards (65.5) at DraftKings. He continues to battle minor injuries, but the Chiefs expect him to play Sunday night. Last week, Worthy was on the field for 77% of the Chiefs’ plays. Patrick Mahomes looked for him 17 times, leading to two steady outcomes (5/83 and 6/42).

Defense vs. Wide Receivers | Shawn Childs, Fantasy OnSI

Detroit sits 27th in wide receiver defense. Wideouts have gained 14.6 yards per catch, and the Lions should be even worse at defending the deep pass in this matchup. I have Worthy on a path to gain 83 receiving yards. He is +145 to score an anytime touchdown. Ja’Marr Chase (6/110/2) and Rome Odunze (7/128/2) posted the best games against Detroit.

Over his last four games, Amon-Ra St. Brown gained at least 70 passing yards each week (9/115/2, 7/77/1, 7/70/2, and 8/100) while averaging 8.75 targets and catching 88.6% of his targets. His over/under in receiving yards (71.5) aligns with his recent performance.

Kansas City ranks ninth in receiving yards allowed (57/672/4 on 89 targets) to wide receivers. Quentin Johnston (5/79/2), Ladd McConkey (6/74), Zay Flowers (7/74), and Brian Thomas (4/80) gained over 71 yards.

The key to St. Brown finishing on the over side of his receiving prop is for Jared Goff to attempt more passes in a high-scoring game, supported by the game total.

Jameson Williams gained over 45 receiving yards only once this year, and it required a 44-yard touchdown. He’s averaging only 5.2 targets this year, with two catches or fewer in his last four matchups.