Perfect Week 15 MNF FanDuel DFS Lineup: Kenneth Gainwell, Sleepers to Win in the Cold
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It may not be the ideal football game, but any football is better than no football. Monday Night Football takes place in Pittsburgh tonight where the Steelers will host the Dolphins in frigid temperatures. We will definitely expect the Steelers to come out on top over a version of Tua Tagoliavoa that hates the cold. Nonetheless, this is a DFS Slate that we will breakdown, and it will find a bunch of value options.
Quarterback: Tua Tagoliavoa vs Aaron Rodgers
Tua in games when the temperature is below 40 degrees:
— PickensBurgh 🫡 (@PickensBurgh) December 11, 2025
0-6 record
1 TD
12 interceptions 😳
Steelers are in for a treat on Monday 👀 pic.twitter.com/9Ty5SabjzC
In temperatures under 40 degrees, Tagoliavoa is 0-6 with (12) Interceptions. It is not a hypothesis, it is a fact that he hates the cold. We will play against that.
Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, has played countless games in frigid temperatures. We expect weather in the teens tonight.
It is very unlikely that Rodgers exceeds (1) Passing Touchdown tonight. The Dolphins are 21st versus Quarterbacks but 7th versus Wide Receivers. The Steelers use all of their passing options, so this is a moderate matchups for Rodgers. Given his expected high-ownership, he is not a prime pick, but he could fill a roster spot if need be.
Aaron Rodgers ($11,800) is worth consideration, Tua Tagoliavoa is not.
Best Running Back Picks
De'Von Achane will play despite a rib injury. A full workload is in store. The Steelers are 11th versus Running Backs, but they are going to be without TJ Watt. We would reasonably expect Achane to see an uptick in touches given the struggles of Tagoliavoa in the cold. A run-heavy Dolphins offense is to be expected, so Achane is a very worthwhile, but expensive pick.
Jaylen Wright expects to be the RB2, but with Achane active, he may not exceed 10% of attempts.
Jaylen Warren woke up sick and is getting fluids, but I'm told he's optimistic about playing tonight. https://t.co/JUeRRIRr9M
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 15, 2025
Jaylen Warren is going to try and play, but he did wake up sick this morning. In the cold, that will be brutal for Warren. We can expect that Gainwell gets heavier work than Warren.
Kenneth Gainwell is a high-upside option as a runner and pass-catcher. We expect Gainwell to have >40% of Rushing Attempts and he will likely compete with Metcalf for the highest Target Share on the evening. The Dolphins are a middling unit versus Running Backs.
De'Von Achane ($13,400) is a great pick, but will also be highly owned. Kenneth Gainwell ($8,800) is a high-upside pick as well.
Best Wide Receiver Picks
Jaylen Waddle is the far-WR1 on the Dolphins. He expects a Target Share well over 30%. The Steelers are 26th versus Wide Receivers, however, Joey Porter Jr. is expected to shadow Waddle. Porter Jr. allows the least Fantasy Points per Route Run in the NFL — purely elite status.
Joey Porter Jr in his last 5 games:
— PFF (@PFF) December 11, 2025
🔒 13 targets
🔒 3 catches, 31 yards allowed
🔒 3 forced incompletions
🔒 39.6 passer rating allowed pic.twitter.com/C5sJJpYzhz
Malik Washington trends closer to a 10% Target Share. He does play in the slot and, logically, we would expect a shorter passing attack in this cold weather game. Washington could trend towards a 20% Target Share. He does have a Red Zone Target Share of about 18%.
DK Metcalf is the far-WR1 on the Steelers, like Waddle. He only has a 19% Target Share, but his explosiveness is lethal. Metcalf has (14.5) Yards per Reception, Top-5 in the NFL. The Dolphins are 7th versus Wide Receivers, but the Steelers involve Metcalf in unique ways, so he may be fine.
I do believe that the Dolphins players are quite overvalued as DFS platforms are overestimating Tagoliavoa in the cold. If way play any Dolphins', I would wish to chase high touchdown upside.
Best Wide Receiver Picks
- Jaylen Waddle $9,800 - High Upside, but High Risk (Porter Jr.)
- DK Metcalf $12,600
- Malik Washington $8,200
Best Tight End Picks
Darren Waller is a risky pick. Waller had (4) Touchdowns in his first three games. Since his return from injury, Waller is averaging (3.0) Targets per Game. I do think that better days are ahead, closer to his pre-injury form. The Steelers are 29th versus the Tight End and 30th in Touchdowns Allowed.
Greg Dulcich has been playing to a much larger role of recent. We project his Target Share to average around 12%, being the same in the Red Zone. In a game where sleepers might be lucrative, Dulcich is a good pick.
Pat Friermuth and Darnell Washington both project to have around a 10% Target Share, being the same in the Red Zone. They may be a tad overpriced as they meet likely <1.0x salary without the unlikely touchdown. The Dolphins are 28th versus the Tight End, but still hard to play these Steelers'.
Best Tight End Picks
- Darren Waller $7,000
- Greg Dulcich $4,400
Best Sleeper Picks
Greg Dulcich $4,400
Dulcich is averaging (3.4) Targets per Game in his five games played to a full workload. He is catching 76.5% of those targets. He is playing explosive football with (11.8) Yards per Reception. He is averaging 1.2x of tonight's salary.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $1,000
This could be a huge steal of that minimum price of $1,000. Valdes-Scantling made his Steelers debut in Week 14, surging up to 31% of snaps played. One week later, this percentage may only go up. Valdes-Scantling and Rodgers go way back to Green Bay, so the chemistry has upside to be considered. For this price, Valdes-Scantling is a must-roster.
Defense/Special Teams
The Steelers are Top-10 in Sacks and Takeaways, and now, they get a cold weathered Tagoliavoa. They are without TJ Watt, but they can still manage very well behind Alex Highsmith and company. The Dolphins are bottom-half in Sacks Allowed and Giveaways. Pittsburgh is also averaging near 1.3x of tonight's salary.
The Dolphins are a bottom-half unit in unfamiliar weather. The Steelers, surprisingly so, are among the most efficient scoring teams in the NFL when factoring the ratio of Total Yards to Points per Game.
Consider using the Steelers D/ST ($6,400)
Kicker: Riley Patterson vs Chris Boswell
Patterson is playing great football in place of Jason Sanders. He is 23-for-25 on the season, averaging (1.9) Attempts per Game. Despite cold, perhaps flurry weather, the wind will be down a lot. The low-scoring output of the Dolphins may be worth mild concern.
Boswell is among the better kickers in the NFL. He is 23-for-26 on the year, averaging (2.0) Attempts per Game.
Riley Patterson ($6,600) and Chris Boswell ($6,800) are considerable options or moderate risk and upside.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.