2025 Fantasy Baseball: Riley Greene Profile, Preview, Predictions
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Last year, I wasn't in Riley Greene's camp due to a groundball swing path. His growth at the plate and added loft to his balls in play point to a much better player in 2025.
Riley Greene's second home run of the night puts the @Tigers back on top! pic.twitter.com/NeVp41dxPb
— MLB (@MLB) April 24, 2024
OF – Riley Greene, DET (ADP – 112.0)
Coming into last season, I didn’t like the direction of Greene’s power based on his weakness in his fly-ball rate in 2022 (23.9) and 2023 (24.8). My thought process was flawed as he improved his swing path last season (34.6%), highlighted by a career-low groundball rate (43.6). He finished with an uptick in his HR/FB rate (19.4) while ranking 36th in exit velocity (91.3 mph) and 42nd in hard-hit rate (47.1). His average hit rate (1.828) in 2024 supports 30+ home runs with 550 at-bats.
Greene landed on the injured list in late July with a hamstring issue, leading to 22 missed games. His uptick in power emerged in April (.257/24/7/15 over 105 at-bats), followed by a down May (.220/13/3/7/2 over 100 at-bats). He performed well in June (.283 with 13 runs, five home runs, 19 RBIs, and two steals over 99 at-bats) and September (.278/15/5/18 over 97 at-bats). On the downside, left-handed pitchers still hold an advantage over him (.213/18/6/22 over 141 at-bats ~ nine walks and 45 strikeouts).
His walk rate (11.0) moved into a competitive area. Greene had a career-low strikeout rate (26.7) but remains higher than the league average. He was a much better hitter with runners on base (RBI rate – 17), but Greene ranked low in RBI chance (307). The Tigers gave him all but one of his at-bats in the top four slots of their lineup.
Fantasy Outlook: Greene proved to be a value in drafts last season based on his finish in FPGscore (0.57 – 61st) for hitters, which almost matches his price point (63rd batter drafted) in the early drafts in the NFBC. He looks poised to bat third in 2025 while on a path to post a .275/90/30/80/10 season. Greene showed more speed in the minors (25-for-26), pointing more steals this year. I will be following his ADP in March.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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