Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Second-Tier Outfielders
The outfield position has a wide range of different skill sets. The best options offer winning stats in five categories. Unfortunately, the inventory is short in this area, forcing drafters to make difficult decisions when building their rosters. They must compare players at different positions to determine which hitters have the best overall value. At the same time, they need to understand the trade-offs in value in different rounds in drafts.
Here are Fantasy on SI's outfielder rankings 6-10 entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
6 – Julio Rodriguez, SEA (ADP – 13.3)
Over the past two draft fantasy draft seasons, the coin toss was between Bobby Witt and Rodriguez early in the first round. Unfortunately, controlling the strike zone (25.5 K rate) has been more of an issue for Rodriguez than expected early in his career. He also had a regression in his walk rate (6.2) again in 2024.
A midsummer ankle injury last year led to 19 days on the injured list. Rodriguez wasn’t a budding star over his first three months (.247/37/7/29/17 over 336 at-bats). He hit .316 over his final 215 at-bats with 36 runs, 12 home runs, 36 RBIs, and six steals, but it wasn’t enough to save his season.
His contact batting average (.377) has been an asset in his time with the Mariners (.382) while showing a higher gear in the minors (.422). Rodriguez slid to 30th in exit velocity (91.7 mph) and 28th in hard-hit rate (48.4). He had a slight bump in his launch angle (10.5) but a fade in his HR/FB rate (13.8 – 19.6 in 2023 and 21.4 in 2022), highlighted by his steep decline in his average hit rate (1.497).
Seattle finished 24th in runs (676) last season, leading to fewer RBI chances (360). He also had a fade in his RBI rate (14). Rodriguez ranked 35th in FPGscore (2.31) for batters.
Will Julio Rodríguez get back to the 30/30 club in 2025? pic.twitter.com/J4sh5H33qm
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 1, 2025
Fantasy Outlook: Finding 30/30 type players with impact upside in the other three categories is a rarity in most fantasy seasons. Rodriguez must improve his approach and regain his lost power stroke to reach elite status, which was expected of him coming into the majors. I view him as a strong buy this year, but I’m not a fan of the offensive structure of the Mariners in mid-January.
7 – Fernando Tatis, SD (ADP – 9.7)
Drafting Tatis has been a losing investment over the past three years due to a missed season (2022) and 60 games on the sidelines last season. He teased the fantasy market over 702 at-bats from 2020 and 2021 (.281/149/59/142/36).
Tatis missed the first three weeks of 2023 with a slow recovery from shoulder surgery. Despite hitting nine home runs over his first 150 at-bats, he had weakness in his runs (21) and RBIs (19) with a short batting average (.240). He played much better over the next third of the season (.293/38/9/34/12 over 215 at-bats). Tatis drove the bus home with a step back in play over 210 at-bats (.233 with 32 runs, seven home runs, and 25 RBIs) except for 12 stolen bases.
Last season, he suited up for 102 games due to 10 weeks on the injured list with a quad issue. Tatis hit .279 over his first 308 at-bats with 50 runs, 14 home runs, 36 RBIs, and eight steals, putting him on pace for an 89/25/64/20 season if given 550 at-bats. His bat showed more power in September (.267/14/7/13/3 over 90 at-bats).
His strikeout (21.9) was a career-best while taking fewer walks (7.3%). Tatis lost his swing against lefties (.225/14/2/5/3 over 98 at-bats). He struggled with runners on base (RBI rate – 12).
Despite his shortfalls in expected production, he ranked high in exit velocity (93.5 – 9th) and hard-hit rate (55.8 – 4th), plus strength in his HR/FB rate (20.4). Tatis has a fading launch angle (10.0) with a lower fly-ball rate (34.0).
Fantasy Outlook: Based on the results on the field, Tatis doesn’t belong in the first round of drafts. His contact batting average (.364) remains high but below his first three years in the majors (.432). He projects to have a floor of 30 home runs with speed to push higher in stolen bases. The question is: to bet on his potential or avoid his propensity to get hurt? Tatis is miles away from free agency (2035). Possible top five-hitter if on the field for 150+ games.
8 – Jackson Chourio, MIL (ADP – 16.7)
Milwaukee signed Chourio for $1.8 million in 2021 at age 17. Over his three seasons in the minors, he hit .286 with 194 runs, 47 home runs, 191 RBIs, and 68 stolen bases over 1,090 at-bats. In 2023, 510 of his 531 at-bats came at AA (.280/84/22/8943). His walk rate (8.1) and strikeout rate (20.6) were about league average.
The Brewers saw enough progress in his game to sign him to an eight-year $82 million contract in December of 2023. Chourio had 21 at-bats of experience at AAA (.333 with four runs, two RBIs, and one steal) coming into last season.
In his rookie campaign, Chourio rewarded Milwaukee for the investment in him by making the major league roster out of spring training. He struggled over his first 51 games (.207/20/5/16/7 over 164 at-bats) due to a rise in his strikeout rate (27.3). For the remainder of 2024, his bat proved to be major-league-ready (.305 over 364 at-bats with 60 runs, 16 home runs, 63 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases). Over this span, his strikeout rate (18.4) beat the league average while needing work with his walk rate (7.3).
The future is bright for this Brewers sensation!
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 30, 2025
NL Rookie of the Year finalist Jackson Chourio arrives as the #7 left fielder on the #Top10RightNow. pic.twitter.com/oBwsaPtZnB
His exit velocity (89.7 mph) ranked 90th for batters with at least 400 plate appearances. Chourio finished with higher success in hard-hit rate (44.9 – 65th). He had a groundball swing path (48.3%) with strength in his HR/FB rate (16.4). His bat lacked punch against left-handed pitching (.267/21/3/15/8 over 161 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook: When given a chance to hit on the top two spots in the Brewers’ batting order, Chourio hit .287 with 44 runs, 11 home runs, 40 RBIs, and 15 steals over 268 at-bats. He ranked 20th in FPGscore (3.00) for batters. Here are the positives for him in 2025: Will he hit in a favorable part of the batting order? √ Can Chourio hit 20+ home runs? √ And does his minor league profile support 35+ stolen bases? √ When adding his success with runners on base (RBI rate – 19), he looks poised to be a better player in 2025. Let’s go: .280 with 100+ runs, 20+ home runs, 80+ RBIs, and 40+ steals.
9 – Yordan Alvarez, HOU (ADP – 18.0)
In 2023, an oblique injury led to Alvarez missing about 45 days between June and July. Over his first 202 at-bats, he hit .277 with 41 runs, 17 home runs, and 55 RBIs. After returning from his injury, his bat stayed on a productive path (.308/36/14/42 over 208 at-bats).
Alvarez set career highs in plate appearances (635), at-bats (552), hits (170), batting average (.308), and steals (6) last season. Unfortunately, his value in runs (88) and RBIs (86) fell short of expectations. He continues to offer an edge in his contact batting average (.372) with an excellent approach (strikeout rate – 15.0 and walk rate (10.9) for a power hitter. Alvarez had a regression in his average hit rate (1.841) while struggling more with runners on base (RBI rate – 15).
His bat was elite vs. left-handed pitching (.362/23/10/30/1 over 188 at-bats), with more success on the road (.333 with 53 runs, 22 home runs, 56 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 273 at-bats). Alvarez lost his power in May (.283/10/2/4/3 over 106 at-bats). He hit between seven and eight home runs in four different months. From June through August, his batting average (.347) was a significant edge, leading to 48 runs, 19 home runs, 49 RBIs, and three steals over 254 at-bats. Alvarez missed the final five games of the season with a right knee issue.
He ranked 13th in exit velocity (93.1) and 18th in hard-hit rate (49.7), which were lower than his two previous seasons. His fly-ball rate (47.6) was a career-high and has risen for five consecutive seasons. On the downside, Alvarez posted a career-low with his HR/FB rate (16.0 – 21.9 in 2023 and 21.9 in his career).
Fantasy Outlook: The Astros want to keep Alvarez in their lineup for more games, so they will limit his playing time in the outfield in 2025. His foundation skill set is tremendous, giving him an edge in power and batting average. He finished 15th in FPGscore (5.34) for hitters in 2024 while underperforming in runs and RBIs for his improved opportunity. Houston has him locked up for four more seasons. I love his floor in batting average and his potential to smash 50 home runs, but Alvarez must avoid the injured list to post difference-maker stats. With a second-round ADP in 2025, he will be a gift for some team structures.
10 – Jackson Merrill, SD (ADP – 26.0)
Merrill came to San Diego via the 27th selection in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft. Over three short seasons in the minors, he hit .295 with 133 runs, 21 home runs, 114 RBIs, and 31 stolen bases over 800 at-bats. His highest experience level was AA (.273/26/5/31/5 over 187 at-bats). Merrill has a below-par walk rate (7.4) while being challenging to strikeouts (15.1).
Despite only about a third of a year of experience at AAA, Merrill made the Padres starting lineup in 2024. He hit .280 over his first 186 at-bats in San Diego with 22 runs, three home runs, 22 RBIs, and seven stolen bases. His power emerged in June (.320/17/9/20/2 over 103 at-bats) and August (.303/18/7/23/5 over 99 at-bats). Merrill had less success against left-handed pitching (.240/13/5/17/4 over 146 at-bats). He hit an impressive .326 on the road with 40 runs, 12 home runs, 51 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases over 288 at-bats.
His strikeout rate (17.0) was in a favorable area, but he had a free-swinging approach (4.9% walk rate). Merrill finished with a line drive swing path (23.9%) with a slight increase in his HR/FB rate (13.0). He ranked 67th in exit velocity (90.4) and 75th in hard-hit rate (43.9).
Fantasy Outlook: Merrill surprised in home runs last year based on his incoming average hit rate (1.605). He upped that number (1.710) in 2024, painting a new floor of 25 home runs if repeated with 550 at-bats. He performed well with runners on base (RBI rate – 18). His minor league resume supports more stolen bases (he ranked 43rd in sprint speed last season). For now, I’ll view Merrill as a 25/20 player with help in runs, RBIs, and stolen bases. He finished last season ranked 22nd in FPGscore (3.95) for hitters.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.