Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 5 Outfielders
The outfield position has a wide range of different skill sets. The best options offer winning stats in five categories. Unfortunately, the inventory is short in this area, forcing drafters to make difficult decisions when building their rosters. They must compare players at different positions to determine which hitters have the best overall value. At the same time, they need to understand the trade-offs in value in different rounds in drafts.
Here are Fantasy on SI's top five outfielders entering the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
1 – Shohei Ohtani (ADP – 1.4)
Over the past four seasons, Ohtani developed into a beast home run hitter (178 over 2,256 at-bats), highlighted by one of the best seasons in baseball history in 2024. He has three MVP awards (2021 – AL, 2023 – AL, and 2024 – NL) while also winning the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2018. Last year, he led the NL in plate appearances (731), runs (134), home runs (54), and RBIs (130) while setting career highs in almost every category.
Ohtani posted an elite contact batting average over the past two seasons (.427 and .416) while continuing to improve his strikeout rate (22.2 – career-best). He finished 2024 with a step back in his walk rate (11.1 – 15.2) while remaining in a favorable area. His average hit rate (2.086) has been exceptional in his career (2.041). Ohtani had 99 extra-base hits (50.3% of his hits).
He had three monster months last season – June (.293/26/12/24/3 over 99 at-bats), August (.235/24/12/22/15 over 115 at-bats), and September (.393/27/10/32/16 over 107 at-bats). Ohtani stole 33 bases over the second half, with a high-ranking success rate (59-for-63 – 93.7%).
His exit velocity (95.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (60.1) finished second in both categories behind Aaron Judge. Ohtani had a career-low groundball rate (36.0), leading to more flyballs (40.4%) but a slight drop in his HR/FB rate (28.0).
Babe Ruth and Shohei Ohtani, Through 674 games. pic.twitter.com/07xMt8ngaR
— BaseballHistoryNut (@nut_history) January 24, 2025
Fantasy Outlook: The Dodgers will pay Ohtani $2 million a season from 2024 to 2023, followed by a 10-year run with $68 million in earnings. The success of his bat almost forces the fantasy market to view him as a hitter going forward. His power is off the chart, and he has 35 consecutive successful steals. With pitching added to his workload, Los Angeles may not let him run as much in 2025. His increase in plate appearances last season, paired with the move to Los Angeles, led to his stats reaching an elite level in five categories. With 600 at-bats, a .300/125/50/120/30 season is a reasonable outcome. Late in the year, a fantasy team gaining an offensive edge will have the ability to rotate on the pitching side. On a side note, Ohtani suffered a late left shoulder injury (labrum) in the World Series that required surgery in early November.
2 – Aaron Judge, NYY (ADP – 3.5)
Two things that stand out for Judge last season outside of his elite power. First, hitting behind Juan Soto in the lineup led to a significant jump in his RBI chances (471 – career-best) and a new top in his RBI rate (19). Second, the Yankees' lack of a proven power clean-up bat led to Judge getting 20 intentional walks and a career-high in walks (133 – 18.9%). By taking that many walks, he has fewer chances to put the ball over the fence.
His contact batting average (.464) was electric while having elite success in this area over his previous three seasons (.403, .448, and .414). He led the majors in average hit rate (2.178), exit velocity (96.2 mph), and hard-hit rate (60.9), but all three stats were below his injury-shortened 2023 seasons (2.296/97.6/64.2). Judge had a higher fly-ball rate over the past two seasons (50.0 and 46.2), highlighted by his launch angle (20.4 and 18.9).
After a slow start in batting average (.207) in April last year, Judge tore the cover off the ball over the next four months (.369/93/45/105/6 over 360 at-bats). He finished with almost equal success at home (.328/65/31/71/5) and away (.316/57/27/73/5) and against left (.326/94/42/106 over 427 at-bats) and right (.311/28/16/38/5 over 132 at-bats) handed pitchers. The Yankees hit him third in the batting order for all his at-bats.
Aaron Judge: owner of the best hitting season since 1900 by a right-handed batter. #Top10RightNow pic.twitter.com/RC2OB0s95L
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 24, 2025
Fantasy Outlook: New York added a couple of veteran bats (Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger) behind Judge in the batting order to hopefully offset the loss of Juan Soto at a fraction of the price. I expect his RBI chances to regress, and some pullback in batting average should be expected. His power is immense, and he had a career-high 95 extra-base hits last season. Judge had a floor of 550 at-bats in three of his past four years, helped by more chances at DH (41 games in 2024). Buy the 50+ home runs with a high floor in runs, RBIs, and batting average. A higher ceiling starts with repeating his career-best strikeout rate (24.3). Judge missed 30 or more games in 2018 (50), 2019 (60), 2020 (32), and 2023 (56).
3 – Kyle Tucker, CHC (ADP – 8.0)
From 2021 to 2023, Tucker developed into a top run-producer (311 RBIs) with a high floor in home runs (30, 30, and 29), supported by strength in his average hit rate (1.856). His stolen base output has risen yearly in the majors until 2024 (injured). In 2023, he played well from June 1st to August 30th (.300 with 59 runs, 19 home runs, 64 RBIs, and 19 steals over 289 at-bats). Houston hit him third, fourth, and fifth in the batting order for 569 of his 574 at-bats.
Last season, Tucker played well over his first 60 games (.266/42/19/40/10 over 214 at-bats), putting him on pace for career highs in runs (108) and home runs (49) with 103 RBIs with 550 at-bats. Over this stretch, he had more walks (46) than strikeouts (41). Unfortunately, what looked like a minor lower leg issue in early June turned into three months on the injury list. His bat shined again over his final 18 games (23-for-63 with 14 runs, four home runs, and nine RBIs), but Tucker only stole one base.
His strikeout rate (15.6) remained in line with his previous three seasons. He finished with an elite walk rate (16.5) while increasing his approach for the fifth consecutive season.
Tucker turned into a beast against left-handed pitching (.300/25/12/47 over 210 at-bats) in 2023 with an excellent approach (22 walks and 28 strikeouts). Last season, he hit .262 vs. lefties with 14 runs, five home runs, 16 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 103 at-bats.
His exit velocity (91.1) and hard-hit rate (44.3) in 2024 fell within range of his career path. Tucker had a spike upward in his fly-ball rate (52.4% - 45.1 in his career). His HR/FB rate (19.5) and launch angle (21.2) were career highs.
Fantasy Outlook: After getting traded to the Cubs in the offseason, Tucker should have the best opportunity of his career to hit in a premium spot in the batting order. His bat and approach continue to improve, and he has a home run-inducing swing path. Chicago stole 143 bases last season compared to 91 by the Houston Astros, a sign that Tucker should run more in 2025. He is on a contract year. His stats in 2022 and 2023 ranked him as a top 10 hitter by FPGscore. Tucker looks poised to set career highs in runs and home runs with plenty of help in batting average, RBIs, and stolen bases. His ADP is in a tight range with Juan Soto and Corbin Carroll in mid-January in the NFBC.
4 – Juan Soto, NYM (ADP – 8.6)
At age 26, Soto had 655 runs, 201 home runs, and 592 RBIs over 3,280 at-bats, putting him on pace to rank highly in baseball history if he fulfills his 15-year obligation to the Mets ($765 million). He comes off career highs plate appearances (713), at-bats (576), runs (128), and home runs (41). His approach (strikeout rate – 16.7 and walk rate – 18.1) is one of the best in the game.
Over the first two and a half months last year, Soto had his best success (.319/58/18/55/4 over 257 at-bats). He had his highest output in home runs (10) in August, but he only hit .222 with 20 runs and 19 RBIs. Surprisingly, his bat was slightly better on the road (.292/68/21/50/5 over 288 at-bats). Soto had plenty of power and production against lefties (.278/37/13/42/3 over 180 at-bats).
He had his best exit velocity (94.2 mph – 5th) and hard-hit rate (57.0 – 3rd) of his career. His ceiling in power has been restricted by his launch angle (10.7) in his career, but Soto had a better swing path last season based on his lower groundball rate (43.6 – 51.0 in 2023). His HR/FB rate (25.0) has been over 22% every season in the majors except 2022 (17.2).
His contact batting average (.363) is trending higher, along with his average hit rate (1.976), putting on pace to post a .300+ batting average with a floor of 35 home runs with 550 at-bats.
JUAN SOTO.
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) December 12, 2024
NEW YORK MET. pic.twitter.com/iOrCK1Qdey
Fantasy Outlook: Soto ranked sixth in FPGscore (8.95) for hitters in 2024, nine spots higher than 2023 (5.98). He trails the elite batters in baseball by a wide margin in stolen base, forcing him to post a .320 batting to overcome this shortfall. The Mets have on-base talent at the top of their lineup, suggesting he’ll bat third season. It’s important to me that Pete Alonso resigns with the Mets for projection and higher results in runs. Based on his propensity to take walks, Soto may never have 600 at-bats in a season, costing his chances at more home runs. I respect his potential in runs, home runs, and RBIs while understanding that he’s just reaching the prime of his career. To reach a more impactful ceiling, he must be more opportunistic on the base paths.
5 – Corbin Carroll, ARI (ADP – 9.4)
The Diamondbacks gave Carroll 155 games of action in 2023, leading to impressive stats in all categories, highlighted by his exceptional value in steals (54). He battled a left knee injury, a right shoulder issue, and a minor wrist injury during the year, but he never missed more than two games for any issue. Before the All-Star break, Carroll had the most value in power (.289/63/18/48/26 over 308 at-bats), so his late June/early July shoulder issue may have been the reason for his decline in power (seven home runs over his final 257 at-bats). In September, he cranked up stolen base output (13) to reach the 50-mark.
Other than runs (47), Carroll was a bust last year over the first three months (.213 with two home runs, 23 RBIs, and 14 stolen bases over 305 at-bats. He saved his season power in August (11 home runs) while running more in September (13 stolen bases). Carroll hit .250 over his final 284 at-bats with impact stats (runs – 74, home runs – 20, RBIs – 51, and steals – 21).
His contact batting average (.296) was well below his first two years with Arizona (.366) and his minor league career (.435). He maintained a high average hit rate (1.853) despite seeing a regression in his HR/FB rate (12.0), exit velocity (89.3 mph), and hard-hit rate (40.6). Carroll finished with a higher fly-ball rate (39.2) at the expense of his line drive rate (16.7 – 19.0 in 2023). His only injury last year was his side issue in June.
Carroll was on base 231 times in 2023, leading to 116 runs. Even with a drop of 25 hits last season with more at-bats (589), he reached base 219 times, scoring 121 runs. His strikeout rate (19.0) improved while upping his walk rate (10.7).
Fantasy Outlook: In a way, Carroll is a better version of Elly De La Cruz in fantasy team build due to his approach. His stature paints a lower profile, but he makes up for this shortfall by hitting the ball hard and scoring at a fantastic rate. His second half paints a 40/40 player with an excellent chance of having a rebound season in batting average. I’ll set his bar at .290 with 125 runs, 30 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 50 stolen bases.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.