Fantasy Baseball: Breakout Players and Sleeper Third Basemen

The backend of the third base player pool in 2025 has some upside options that will help fantasy teams. The key for drafters is hitching their winning game plan to the best options.

Deep Sleeper: Jace Jung, Detroit Tigers

Jung had an excellent approach in college with a power/batting average profile. He hit 44 home runs over 943 at-bats in the minors, and the Tigers have him penciled in as their starting third baseman this season. I expect some batting average risk out of the gate, but 20 home runs are within reach if given 550 at-bats.

Deep Sleeper: Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox

Miquel Vargas — Chicago White Sox Third Baseman Miguel Vargas | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Over the past three seasons, Vargas struggled to make an impact in the majors (.175/62/13/56/7 over 509 at-bats). His walk rate (11.0) graded well, and pitchers struck him out 22.2% of the time. His AAA profile (.297 over 819 at-bats with 180 runs, 35 home runs, 163 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases) paints a winning profile, and the White Sox should give him plenty of at-bats this year.

Sleeper: Connor Norby, Miami Marlins

Based on the structure of the Marlins’ lineup in 2025, Norby should hit second in the batting order. He’ll have speed bumps this year, and Miami has a bottom-tier offense. His contact batting average was high in the minors (.388) and almost repeated in the majors (.383), suggesting a neutral batting average at a minimum this year with some improvement in his strikeout rate. Norby has the makings of a 20+ home run hitter in 2025 with double-digit steals. I expect his runs to rank higher than his RBI production.

Sleeper: Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs

With only 131 at-bats of experience at AAA, Shaw may need some time to find his stride with Chicago. He has an excellent chance of making the majors out of spring training, and his foundation skill set points to a 25/30 player early in his career. Speed at third base tends to be an advantage, highlighted by the success of Jose Ramirez in his career. Shaw has a David Wright feel while being a half-season away from hitting his stride. The addition of Justin Turner does invite more competition for at-bats.

Breakout Player: Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

Caminero draws the “next young stud profile” in the early draft season based on his early ADP (101.1). The 60th-ranked hitter last season by FPGscore (0.58) was Alex Bregman (.260/79/26/75/3 over 581 at-bats). A fantasy drafter has to decide if Caminero can beat those stats in 2025 to be worth his simmering ADP. Based on talent and ceiling, he is the right kind of swing for a fantasy team.

With a few more fly balls and an improved launch angle, Caminero has the tools to be a perennial 30-home run hitter with an edge in batting average. I’ve been burnt by investing in Tampa prospects in the past, but I also hit a home run in my rookie season in the NFBC when I drafted Miguel Cabrera in round 6. Don’t be shy, as his bat should be in top form in March, leading to a rise in his price point.

He picked up a back issue in early March, which led to a day-to-day tag on the injury report.

Deep Sleeper: Jace Jung, Detroit Tigers

Deep Sleeper: Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox

Sleeper: Connor Norby, Miami Marlins

Sleeper: Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs

Breakout Player: Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays

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