Fantasy Baseball: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Lands Record $500M Deal
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The player signing market is an ever-changing business in Major League Baseball. More teams are trying to lock up young players to buy out their arbitration years, along with their early seasons in free agency. Over the past couple of weeks, the Padres inked Jackson Merrill, at age 21, to a nine-year $135 million deal, followed by the Boston Red Sox locking up Kristian Campbell for $60 million for eight seasons plus two more options years for $19 and $21 million.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. was set to hit free agency in 2026 at the perfect age (26), but the Blue Jays stepped up to the plate and signed him to a massive $500 million contract for 14 seasons. He’ll be a free agent after his 40th birthday in 2040. Guerrero will earn $28.5 million this year, bringing his total earnings to $75,988,444 at the end of this season.
Blue Jays, 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reportedly agree to 14-year extension, per multiple reports including https://t.co/Z3s2EpgF39's @KeeganMatheson. pic.twitter.com/TOO0hRKVZI
— MLB (@MLB) April 7, 2025
His father played 16 seasons in the majors, with his final season coming in 2011 at age 36. He made $129,088,360 in his career. Vlad Guerrero senior’s highest salary came in 2004 ($15.6 million).
Guerrero Jr. Contract Impact
The fallout from this contract is the disappointed but motivated Pete Alonso, who settled for a one-year deal worth $30 million with the Mets over the winter. He has a player option for $24 million after this season after turning 31 in December. In the fantasy market and Major League Baseball, the value of an aging power hitter was less attractive in 2025. If Alonso hits 40+ home runs with success in RBIs, he should test free agency again next year unless the Mets pony up more years to his current deal.
Over the past four seasons, Guerrero hit .293 over 2,460 at-bats with 389 runs, 136 home runs, 406 RBIs, and 19 stolen bases. His most dominating year came in 2021 (.311/123/48/111/4 over 604 at-bats). Ten games into this season, he is 10-for-39 with three runs and four RBIs. I expect him to celebrate tonight with a home run.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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