Garrett Crochet 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Why He's the Safest Ace on the Board

Garrett Crochet profiles as a high-floor ace with elite strikeouts, heavy innings, and strong win equity atop the Red Sox rotation.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (35) pitches against the New York Yankees during the first inning of game one of the Wildcard round of the 2025 MLB playoffs at Yankee Stadium. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Garrett Crochet quietly delivered the most valuable fantasy pitching season in baseball last year, outproducing even Tarik Skubal in standard roto formats. Now entrenched as Boston’s ace, Crochet enters 2026 with elite strikeout volume, a workhorse profile, and one of the safest paths to wins among top-tier starters.

SP3 – Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox (NFBC ADP – 10)

Crochet was a better fantasy pitcher than Tarik Skubal in Roto formats last year.  My FPGscore (10.35) had him ranked as the top pitcher in baseball in 2025.

Over the final three months last season, Skubal went 3-4 over his final 14 starts despite posting a 2.29 ERA, 0.961 WHIP, and 103 strikeouts over 86.1 innings. Crochet went 10-1 over that same span with a 2.90 ERA, 1.010 WHIP, and 111 strikeouts over 90.1 innings and 14 starts. Skubal scored 6.65 FPGscore points in ERA and WHIP, compared to 4.54 by Crochet. Unfortunately, five fewer wins resulted in a significant liability in that category (1.36 to 3.33). The gap in strikeouts was worth 0.52 FPGscore points in favor of Boston’s best arm.

Boston’s ace led the American League in innings pitched (205.1), strikeouts (255), and K/9 rate (11.2) while ranking third in wins (18). Batters hit .217 against Crochet, with 24 home runs and 13 steals.

Will we see a third straight 200-strikeout season from Garrett Crochet? 🐷 pic.twitter.com/R8BfEEAHbx

— MLB (@MLB) February 8, 2026

His average fastball (96.6 mph) was down slightly from 2024 (97.3 mph). A high percentage of his strikeouts came off his slider (.138 BAA with 100 Ks) and four-seamer (.255 with 101 Ks). Crochet mixed in a cutter (.245 BAA), sinker (.221 BAA), and a show-me changeup (.091 BAA).

Crochet dominated lefties (.166 with three home runs, four walks, and 46 strikeouts over 145 at-bats), leading to opponents setting their lineups with more right-handed batters (81.4%). Thirteen of his 18 wins came on the road (2.25 ERA and 148 strikeouts over 116.0 innings).

Garrett Crochet 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Crochet checks a lot of ace boxes, and the Red Sox have a developing offense, suggesting plenty of wins and strikeouts. His ERA and WHIP edge doesn’t look as high as Tarik Skubal's or Paul Skenes, and his back-to-back seasons with a massive jump in innings could lead to some regression. He allowed two runs or fewer in 25 of his 32 starts last season. Great arm, with a winning foundation in wins, ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.