Thunder vs. Pacers: Fantasy Sports on SI Staff Drops NBA Finals Predictions

Before we get to our NBA Finals picks, let’s talk small market hoops on the big stage

We mean this with the utmost respect: The Oklahoma City Thunder/Indiana Pacers matchup in the 2025 NBA Finals is the most backwater pairing in championship history.

I suppose you could put the 1994-95 Houston Rockets/Orlando Magic clash into the mix. The ‘89-’90 Portland/Detroit rumble bears mention, as does the Milwaukee Bucks/Baltimore Bullets meeting from 1970-71.

But featuring two cities with a combined population of slightly over 1.5 million, OKC/Indy is the epitome of small market.

And I couldn’t be happier about it.

I know, I know, the NBA is theoretically better when New York (population: 8.4 million), or Los Angeles (population: 3.7 million), or Chicago (population: 2.7 million) is in the Finals. But OKC/Indy has a Hoosiers vibe, and I’m down.

Second off, the Thunder and the Pacers are two really good, really entertaining teams, and I’d rather spent two weeks with then than the Knicks, the Lakers, or, the Bulls. This isn’t to say that New York and L.A. aren’t fun in their own way, but here in 2025, I’ll take MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over aging LeBron James.

And lord knows this Chicago boy has exactly no interest in spending even one more day with the 2024-25 Bulls.

Anyhoo, Fantasy on SI’s Managing Editor Matt Brandon and I prognosticated which small market scrapper will take home the hardware.

First, Me

When you’ve won 18 more games than your Finals opponent, you roll into Game One feeling pretty good about things. And the fact that you’re led by the best player in the league—at least according to those with an MVP vote—puts it all over the edge.

The series hinges on the battle between Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton. If the Indy star can elevate his game against SGA—think: a Russell Westbrook-ian run of triple-doubles—Indiana has a shot.

But Haliburton won’t go on a Russell Westbrook-ian run of triple-doubles.

Y’see, it turns out that SGA is a pretty good ball stopper—his 2024-25 defensive rating was a solid 107.4, 23rd best in the league, and third amongst point guards—and if he shuts down Haliburton, this could be a quick series…especially if OKC’s league-best D is as stifling as it was throughout the regular season.

It’s very much worth mentioning that the Thunder’s +12.9 point differential is a whopping 10.1 points better than Indy’s.

Everything is lined up for OKC to bring home the hardware for just the second time in franchise history.

Truth be told, there isn’t much of a case to be made for Indiana.

If they’re even going to make this series interesting, the Pacers will need a whole lot of things to fall in their favor—things that, for the most part, are out of their hands, things that rely on screw-ups and bad luck on the other side of the court, i.e.:

Consistent foul trouble from Gilgeous-Alexander.

A cold streak from Chet Holmgren.

Bad rotational choices by coach Mark Daigneault.

And, of course, injury trouble.

The stats and the eye-test tell us that the Thunder are far superior to the Pacers, so three of the above factors will have to be a thing if Indy is going to stand a legit chance.

Which is a shame, because this is a fun team filled with cool dudes.

The Thunder are too good, and they have too many notches in their belt, and it just feels like it’s their year.

Indy has enough talent and mojo to make life periodically difficult for SGA and the crew, but not anywhere near difficult enough.

Before it's all said and done, Haliburton will have one scary night…but just one.

Oklahoma City Thunder in five.

Next, Matt

The NBA Finals serve up a true David vs. Goliath showdown, with the Thunder entering as commanding -750 favorites. MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been electric this postseason—averaging 29.8 points, 6.9 assists, and 5.7 rebounds—and he's got serious backup, especially with Jalen Williams making a major leap in 2025. Given Indiana's high-tempo style, I'm anticipating 30-plus from SGA in each and every game of this series.

Offense isn't the only place where the Thunder thrive though. Oklahoma City's swarming perimeter defense, anchored by All-Defensive First Teamer Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace, combined with Chet Holmgren's towering presence in the paint, presents a nightmare matchup for Indiana — particularly Tyrese Haliburton.

To their credit, the Pacers earned their Finals berth with a deep, resilient rotation that knocked off Milwaukee, Cleveland, and New York. But against OKC, they face their toughest challenge yet. Outside of Pascal Siakam, no Pacer has Finals experience, and while Haliburton may rack up assists, he’ll have to fight for every inch against this relentless Thunder defense.

Even if Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith rise to the occasion on both ends, OKC's versatility and ability to win without relying on the three-ball make them nearly impossible to contain. Expect a gentleman’s sweep.

First, Me

Oklahoma City Thunder in five.

Next, Matt

Oklahoma City Thunder in five.

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