2025 Fantasy Baseball: Francisco Alvarez Profile, Preview Predictions

Francisco Alvarez is set to begin his road back to the Mets starting lineup this week. His surgery to repair his broken hamate bone came on March 10th, putting him on track to return to the majors about six weeks after his injury. Matt Olson needed only five rehab games in 2019 before returning to the A’s starting lineup after suffering the same hand issue as Alvarez. He should be added in all formats this week.

First career home run for Francisco Álvarez! pic.twitter.com/EJd8VY2Gfa
— New York Mets (@Mets) October 5, 2022

7 – Francisco Alvarez, NYM (ADP – 148.1)

2025 Francisco Alvarez Hitting Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Over five seasons in the minors, Alvarez hit .271 over 930 at-bats with 179 runs, 61 home runs, 181 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. In 2022, he beat up AA pitching (.277/43/18/47 over 253 at-bats), leading to a call-up to AAA (.234 over 158 at-bats with 31 runs, nine home runs, and 31 RBIs). His walk rate (13.6) was an elite area with a slightly below-par strikeout rate (23.3). Alvarez had a high floor in his contact batting average (.376) and an elite average hit rate (1.937).

The Mets called him up in 2023 after four games in the minors (.250/4/2/4/1 over 16 at-bats). Alvarez showed his potential in May (.292/11/7/17 over 72 at-bats) and July (.275/14/8/16 over 69 at-bats). Over his other 241 at-bats, he hit .166 with 26 runs, 10 home runs, and 30 RBIs. His bat was empty on many days vs. lefties (.171 with six home runs, 22 RBIs, and 37 strikeouts over 129 at-bats).

Alvarez's excitement ended quickly last season due to a thumb issue on April 19th, which led to 51 days on the injured list. Over his first 55 at-bats, he hit .236 with eight runs, one home run, eight RBIs, and one steal while striking out 14 times. His bat was trending much higher over his next 28 games (.333/10/3/15 over 87 at-bats), but Alvarez struggled over 34 games after the All-Star break (.150 with 10 runs, two home runs, seven RBIs, and 34 strikeouts over 107 at-bats). He flashed his power potential in September (15-for-59 with 11 runs, five home runs, and 17 RBIs).

His strikeout rate (25.2) and walk rate (8.8) did improve while trailing his minor league career. Alvarez had a groundball swing path (52.2% - 44.0% in 2023), leading to a sharp decline in his launch angle (6.9 – 12.5 in 2023) and a lower fly-ball rate (31.7 – 42.9% in 2023). As a result, he had a weaker exit velocity (88.8 mph) and hard-hit rate (42.0).

Fantasy Outlook: On the surface. Alvarez doesn’t look prime to break out in 2025, but I believe he has the talent to surprise. His approach is much better than Cal Raleigh and Shea Langeliers, and his contact batting average over his career path supports 30+ home runs with over 500 at-bats. I expect growth in his walk rate, helping his ability to score runs. I consider him a strong buy, and I would double-tap catchers if he slid in 15-team drafts. I’ll set his bar at .250 with a 70/25/80 floor in 2025.

7 – Francisco Alvarez, NYM (ADP – 148.1)

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