2025 Fantasy Baseball: Matt Olson Profile, Preview, Predictions
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After a great offensive season in 2024, the Atlanta Braves stud batters had some injuries and underperformed expectations. Matt Olson saw a significant dropoff in batting average, runs, home runs, and RBIs. Some self-induced, but the loss of Ronald Acuna was a clear factor in the Braves' scoring opportunities.
Matt Olson rips the @Braves third home run of the night. pic.twitter.com/c7haKOaXjb
— MLB (@MLB) June 22, 2024
1B – Matt Olson, ATL (ADP – 39.8)
The magical Braves’ offense was derailed early in 2024 when they lost Ronald Acuna. Olson had all but seven of his 600 at-bats, hitting fourth for Atlanta. Despite finishing the year with 10 more RBI chances (449), he drove in 41 fewer runs. The Braves scored 704 runs (15th), a mere 243 fewer than in 2023.
Olson lost some of his growth in his strikeout rate (24.8 – 23.2 in 2023), with a pullback in his walk rate (10.4 – 14.4 in 2023) due to being less feared at the plate. As expected, his contact batting average (.344) reverted closer to his career average (.350) after outperforming expectations the previous season (.390). He posted a six-year low in his average hit rate (1.851), with a decline in his RBI rate (15).
Over the first four months, Olson hit .226 over 399 at-bats with 46 runs, 17 home runs, and 50 RBIs. He started to save his season in August (.264/20/8/17 over 110 at-bats). His batting average (.319) and approach (19 walks and 18 strikeouts) improved in September, but only four balls left the yard over 91 at-bats (12 runs and 21 RBIs). Olson finished the year with more success against lefties (263/27/10/30 over 171 at-bats).
His swing path remained fly-ball favoring (43.0%), but Olson posted a career-low HR/FB rate (15.5) with a decline in his exit velocity (91.5 mph – 93.7 in 2023) and hard-hit rate (47.4 – 55.1 in 2023).
Fantasy Outlook: Ronald Acuna had surgery to repair his left ACL on June 7th, giving him about nine months to be ready for opening day. The Braves won’t push him early in the year, but Olson needs him in the lineup to return to glory in his run production, along with healthy seasons by Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies. Olson has a baseline of 35 home runs and 100+ RBIs. Any growth in runs is tied to the success of the bats behind him in the lineup. He’ll be in the lineup daily (no missed games over the past three seasons), helping his floor in the counting categories. I don’t expect his batting average to be an asset.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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