Fantasy Baseball Impact of Nick Pivetta Signing With San Diego Padres

Editor's Note: This is a developing story. More details to come.

The latest domino to fall in MLB free agency was Nick Pivetta. The veteran pitcher signed with the San Diego Padres on a four-year, $55 million deal. The former member of the Boston Red Sox, Pivetta, was widely seen as the top pitcher remaining in free agency. A plethora of teams including the Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles, and Atlanta Braves heavily pursued the veteran. However, the Padres came out on top.

BREAKING: Right-hander Nick Pivetta and the San Diego Padres are in agreement on a four-year, $55 million contract that includes a pair of opt-outs, pending physical, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 13, 2025

Pivetta started 26 games in 2024 and finished with a 6-12 record with the Sox. Despite the sub .500 record, he had one of his best campaigns in the ERA and WHIP department (4.14 and 1.13) in 145.2 innings. He tallied 172 strikeouts compared to just 36 walks, resulting in a career-high 4.8 K/BB.

The Padres may not be done making changes to their pitching staff. With Pivetta signed (pending a physical), San Diego may opt to move Dylan Cease or Michael King for some high-valued prospects. Cease is the more likely candidate to be traded so keep an eye on the Padres' rotation this offseason.

Let's take a look at Pivetta's fantasy outlook heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season.

Nick Pivetta 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

SP Nick Pivetta, SD (ADP – 197.6)

Finding a winning destination has been an issue for Pivetta over his eight seasons in the majors. He has three winning records (2-0, 9-8, and 10-9) while never posting an ERA under 4.00. On the positive side, his pitches were more challenging to hit in 2023 (.208 BAA) and 2024 (.231 BAA) while showing improving command last year (2.2 walks per nine). Home runs (1.7 per nine in 2024) have been an issue every season in his career (1.5 per nine).

Last year, Pivetta dominated left-handed batters (.188 BAA), but righties teed him up too many times (.271 BAA and .510 SLG). He allowed 20 of his 28 home runs on the road (4.42 ERA).

A right elbow issue led to him landing on the injured list for 34 days after looking sharp over his first two starts (one run and nine baserunners over 11.0 innings with 13 strikeouts). From June 26th to July 29th, Pivetta had four 10-strikeout games, but he posted a 4.58 ERA with six home runs over 39.0 innings. His WHIP (1.102) over this span painted a much better profile. He had an ERA of 4.91 over 20 games from May through August due to giving up a home run once every 4.6 innings. His success came in strikeouts (128) and walks (27) over 106.1 innings. Pivetta pitched well in September (3-2 with a 2.54 ERA, 1.059 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts over 28.1 innings).

His average fastball (94.1) is just above the league average. He added a low-volume cutter (.382 BAA) last year while relying more on his slider (.210 BAA). Pivetta threw fewer four-seamers (.234 BAA) and curveballs (.167 BAA). His fly-ball rate (48.3) in 2024 was much higher than in 2023 (41.9%).

Fantasy Outlook: Taking a ride with Pivetta tends to be up and down despite multiple signs (more challenging to hit and better command) of growth. He turned down over $20 million from the Red Sox for one season in mid-November. Drafters will chase his strikeouts late in drafts, hoping he cuts down on his mistakes in the strike zone. A carnival ride with moments of glory paired with heart-stopping seconds when an errant pitch crushes his day and fantasy dreams. That being said, a fresh start in San Diego could be a recipe for a better record in 2025.

Nick Pivetta 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

SP Nick Pivetta, SD (ADP – 197.6)

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