Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top Starting Pitchers With 100+ ADP

Shawn Childs | Feb 10, 2025

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

In this story:

We continue to rank the top starting pitchers heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Fantasy on SI breaks down the next tier of pitchers:

31 – Hunter Brown, HOU (ADP – 102.6)

Brown came into last draft season with potential breakout upside, and he reached that plateau on some levels. When the lights came on for 2024, he buried fantasy teams in ERA (9.78) and WHIP (2.217) by the end of April due to three poor outings (20 runs, 29 baserunners, and four home runs over nine innings). For the remainder of the season, Brown delivered ace stats (11-5 with a 2.51 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts over 147.0 innings). He did have two other disaster showings (12 runs, 22 baserunners, and two home runs over 11.0 innings with 13 strikeouts) over this span.

His arm had risk against right-handed batters (.279 BAA). Brown cleaned up his damage in home runs (1.0 per nine) but lost some of his strikeout ability (9.5 per nine – 10.3 in 2023). Batters had a much lower hard-hit rate (30.3) and exit velocity (86.2 mph – 90.8 in 2023). His groundball rate (48.9) remains high, leading to a low fly-ball rate (30.5).

He added a sinker (.263 BAA) and cutter (.196 BAA) last season, resulting in a sharp decline in the usage of his slider (3.4% - 25.0 in 2023) and fewer curveballs (.225 BAA). Brown also trusted his changeup (.203 BAA) more. Unfortunately, his only pitch of value against right-handed batters was his cutter (.191 BAA).

From 1st June 224 to the end of season :

Hunter @brown⛽️was … 🔥 pic.twitter.com/WAdEZEe3Zx
— Houston Astros 🇫🇷 France (@AstrosFrance) February 8, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: Hidden in his pitch mix was growth vs. righties over the final five months while showcasing a dominating profile against left-handed batters. Brown’s ticket to stardom starts with better location in and out of the strike zone against righties. He is on the verge of a sub-3.00 ERA with 15 wins and 225 strikeouts, plus some growth in his WHIP. Player to fight for in 2025.

32 – Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (ADP – 105.2)

Rodriguez underperformed expectations with the Orioles over his first two seasons based on his dominance in the minors (29-9 with a 2.40 ERA, 0.966 WHIP, and 475 strikeouts over 333.1 innings).

He pitched his way back to the minors in 2023 after getting blasted over five starts in May (26 runs, 45 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 21.0 innings with 22 strikeouts). After success over eight outings at AAA (4-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 41.1 innings), Grayson pitched like an ace over 12 starts with Baltimore (5-2 with a 2.26 ERA, 1.047 WHIP, and 69 strikeouts over 71.2 innings).

Unfortunately, his 2024 season didn’t build off his newfound success in the majors. He allowed two runs or fewer in five of his first six starts to open the year, with one poor showing (seven runs, 12 baserunners, and one home run over 4.1 innings). The Orioles placed him on the injured list in early May due to a right shoulder issue. Grayson had 10 good starts over his final 14 appearances, but his battle with home runs (11 over 82.2 innings) and two disaster showings (13 runs, 22 baserunners, and four home runs over 10.0 innings) led to weaker results in ERA (3.92). He did win nine games over this span with help in WHIP (1.173) and strikeouts (93). Grayson missed the final two months with a lat injury.

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Grayson Rodriguez / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Right-handed batters (.280 with nine home runs over 229 at-bats) were a problem. He also struggled on the road (4.42 ERA and 1.316 WHIP). The Orioles moved in the left field fence in some areas over the winter, inviting more home runs to righties.

His average fastball (96.3) was down more than one mph from his rookie season. Grayson threw four pitches – four-seamer (.287 BAA), changeup (.161 BAA), slider (.250 BAA), and curveball (.255 BAA). Righties roughed up his four-seamer (.359 BAA), a pitch that was much more effective against left-handed batters (.202 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Twice over the past two seasons, Grayson missed a significant time with a lat injury, and his shoulder injury last year can’t be dismissed as a factor in his current fantasy value. He threw more strikes in 2024, highlighted by his elite first-pitch strike rate (67.7). When adding his draft pedigree, minor league resume, and command ratio from last season, Grayson is on the doorstep of becoming a foundation ace. It all starts with better location of his fastball to righties. I can’t put him in the slam dunk column, but I will be watching his ADP closely in 2025. 32 starts, 15 wins, a sub-3.00 ERA, and 225+ strikeouts are well within reach.

33 – Max Fried, NYY (ADP – 101.0)

After pitching well in April (2-0 with a 0.45 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, .203 BAA, and 18 strikeouts over 20.0 innings) in 2023, Fried struggled in his first start in May (five runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over 6.0 innings). A forearm strain led to three months on the injured list. His arm held value over his final nine starts (2.79 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 51.2 innings), but he battled a blister on his pitching hand in late September. Fried struggled in his only playoff appearance (three runs and seven baserunners over 4.0 innings).

The threat of his forearm issues carrying over into 2024 was a reasonable outcome after two disaster outings (10 runs, 16 baserunners, and one home run over five innings) to open the year. Fried went 7-3 over his next 14 starts with a 2.08 ERA, 0.978 WHIP, and 78 strikeouts over 91.0 innings. Two games (six runs, 20 baserunners, and three home runs over 12.0 innings) into July, he landed on the injured list for three weeks with another forearm issue. His arm was serviceable over his final 11 outings (3.53 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts over 66.1 innings).

Left-handed batters hit .321 against him with five home runs over 140 at-bats. Fried tends to allow a low hard-hit rate (34.5) and exit velocity (86.3 mph). Over the past two years, he developed into a high-volume groundball pitcher (58.8%), leading to a low fly-ball rate (23.2).

His average fastball (93.9) aligned with his previous two seasons while relying on three secondary pitches (curveball – .159 BAA, slider – .208 BAA, and changeup – .198 BAA). Fried added a low-volume cutter (.313 BAA). Left-handed batters drilled his four-seamer (.484 BAA) and sinker (.372 BAA).

Welcome to the Boogie Down Bronx, Max Fried 😤 pic.twitter.com/QBjF5NTxJ8
— MLB (@MLB) December 17, 2024

Fantasy Outlook: The Yankees locked Fried up for $218 million over eight years in early December. He has been a winning pitcher over the past seven seasons (71-31 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, and 797 strikeouts over 824.2 innings). His left arm checks many winning boxes, making it easy to dismiss his two forearm issues over the past two seasons. I suspect a UCL tear in his left elbow will emerge in the near future. His first sign of demise will be a rise in home runs and a drop in strikeouts. Based on this, the hints to avoid aren’t glowing on the surface of his profile.

34 – Tyler Glasnow, LAD (ADP – 109.7)

In 2024, Glasnow was a big mover in the high-stakes market in late March as fantasy drafters, as well as I, saw a potential difference-maker after signing with the Dodgers. His stats last year projected over 32 starts, came to 13 wins and 244 strikeouts with the same outcomes in ERA and WHIP. Glasnow lost his shine to the fantasy market in 2025 despite a better resume coming into this draft season. He missed the final 44 games due to a sprained right elbow and sometime in July with a back issue.

After 16 starts last year, Glasnow was a winning fantasy investment (8-5 with a 2.84 ERA, 0.853 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts over 95.0 innings). He struggled in back-to-back games (10 runs, 14 baserunners, and one home run over nine innings with eight strikeouts), leading to a 5.29 ERA and 1.176 WHIP over his final 34.0 innings.

His average fastball (96.4) declined slightly. Glasnow added a sinker (.233 BAA) with the Dodgers to help his effectiveness against righties (.212 BAA). He has three other elite pitches – four-seamer (.214 BAA with 60 strikeouts), slider (.199 BAA with 48 strikeouts), and curveball (.099 with 52 strikeouts). Over the past two seasons, his groundball rate (48.6) beat his career average (47.4%).

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Fantasy Outlook: For stat drafters who dismiss injury risk, Glasnow should shine brightly in this area of drafts. His arm has beast upside, but he has pitched more than 135.0 innings in the majors. His FPGscore (1.26) ranked 26th for starting pitchers last season. Los Angeles has length to their starting pitching options in 2025, so they won’t push their aces past the sixth inning in many games. The offseason reports suggest Glasnow is past his injury woes, but he still needs to show he can handle 30 starts in the majors. As a backend SP3 option, Glasnow only needs to take the mound for two-thirds of the season to pay off in some way. Pure risk/reward pitcher who already has a priced-in discount…Par 5, 225 yards out over water for an eagle putt, you can’t win unless you take the swing. A safe play may keep you in the game, so what is your goal on draft day?

35 – Zac Gallen, ARI (ADP – 118.5)

The difference between Gallen’s success in 2023 (17-9 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, and 220 strikeouts over 210.0 innings) was six starts and 62 innings. Unfortunately, even with a repeated strikeout rate (9.5), he finished 74 K’s shy of his previous year due to averaging only 5.3 innings per start compared to 6.2 in 2023. Gallen walked more batters (3.3 per nine – 2.0 in 2023) with a minimal change in batting average against (.237).

Over his first 10 games in 2024, he went 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.127 WHIP, and 60 strikeouts over 57.2 innings. A hamstring cost him a month of the season. Gallen looked sharp in his return from the IL (six shutout innings with two baserunners and seven strikeouts). The Diamondbacks pitched him past the sixth inning only once over his final 16 starts. His ERA (4.27) and WHIP (1.411) were liabilities over 84.1 innings due to an increase in walks (38).

His average fastball (93.8) aligned with his previous three seasons. Gallen started to ditch his cutter (.200 BAA) while tossing more curveballs (.147 BAA) and sliders (.342 BAA). He continues to feature a changeup (.267 BAA) as his third usage pitch (14.1%). Batters banged around his four-seamer (.278 with 18 doubles, two triples, and seven home runs over 241 at-bats).

Fantasy Outlook: His stats were close over the past two seasons other than the length of his season due to his injury. On his pitch mix side, Gallen had a sharp decline in his four-seamer (.237 BAA), changeup (.201 BAA), and slider (.225 BAA) from his 2023 season. In addition, home plate was more challenging to find. With no reported arm injury, let’s hope his struggles were mechanical or a possible result of a heavy workload in 2023 (243.2 innings). After a down season in 2021 with command issues, Gallen had a rebound season the following year. Based on this, I expect his arm to be more valuable to fantasy teams in 2025. His 200-strikeout potential is intact if he makes 32 starts, but he has to throw more strikes and regain his lost arsenal to push higher up the pitcher ranking.

31 – Hunter Brown, HOU (ADP – 102.6)

32 – Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (ADP – 105.2)

33 – Max Fried, NYY (ADP – 101.0)

34 – Tyler Glasnow, LAD (ADP – 109.7)

35 – Zac Gallen, ARI (ADP – 118.5)

Recommended Articles