Christian McCaffrey Headlines 3 Early-Round Busts for 2026 Fantasy Football
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When making selections early in fantasy football drafts, there should be a heightened level of confidence in the players you’re taking. At the same time, there is a chance you can lose your fantasy football league by taking a player in the early rounds that fails to return value due to various factors.
With the 2026 NFL season rapidly approaching, let’s take a look at three early-round busts to avoid in fantasy football.
All stats used in this article are from Sumer Sports unless stated otherwise.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Recommending to fade the RB1 in fantasy football from last season could be met with rolled eyes. However, there is plenty of risk in taking Christian McCaffrey in the first round of fantasy football drafts.
In addition to McCaffrey playing in all 17 games for the first time in his career a season ago, he also tallied a career-high 413 touches. Now, McCaffrey is entering his age-30 season, and he’s already dealing with a mystery injury that he recently returned from.
Although McCaffrey benefits from playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense and behind a solid offensive line, the All-Pro RB logged just the 32nd-most EPA/rush (-0.07), 33rd-highest success rate (39.2%), and 29th-highest explosive rate (6.4%) among 49 RBs with 100-plus carries in 2025. A decline in efficiency is one of the reasons to fade CMC in 2026.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Both McCaffrey and De’Von Achane are undoubtedly talented RBs who are capable of handling decent-sized workloads. That said, not every pick in the earlier rounds will be a hit in fantasy football, and Achane’s situation has drastically changed this offseason.
While Achane has excelled as a dynamic threat in Mike McDaniel’s offense in recent years, the Miami Dolphins will now have Bobby Slowik calling plays. On top of that, the Dolphins have replaced Tua Tagovailoa with Malik Willis at QB, which could limit Achane’s red-zone touches.
Head coach Jeff Hafley made headlines this offseason when he iterated that Achane ‘better be in good shape’ for the upcoming season. Even with Hafley expressing a desire to give Achane a massive workload, the Dolphins’ offense is expected to take a step back following McDaniel's departure, and a mobile QB could put a dent in his fantasy value.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers
A valuable skill to have in fantasy football is being able to separate our belief in real-life talent and what a player’s value is in our make-believe leagues. While Tetairoa McMillan is a talented wideout, his offensive environment on the Carolina Panthers isn’t ideal at his average draft position (ADP).
According to FantasyPros’ consensus ADP in half-PPR formats, McMillan carries an ADP of 39.7, which slots him in at WR17. As a rookie in 2025, McMillan was the WR25 in half-PPR in fantasy points per game (10.4) on the 12th-highest target share (25.4%).
Across his first three seasons in the NFL, QB Bryce Young has yet to exceed 200 passing yards per game, and a healthy Jonathan Brooks at RB could lead to the Carolina Panthers leaning on him and RB Chuba Hubbard more. Despite McMillan potentially being a second-year breakout if things broke right for him, the margins for him to succeed seem to be thin.
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Skyler Carlin is an experienced sports writer and editor with nearly a decade of experience covering the NFL, NBA, MLB, college football, college basketball, and soccer for FanDuel Research and USA Today. Outside of writing, he enjoys cooking, watching movies, and playing video games.
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