Eagles vs. Cowboys and 4 More Week 1 Over/Under Games to Target in Fantasy Football
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Week 1 of the NFL season is finally here, and with it comes the challenge of setting lineups and finding an edge in fantasy football.
While talent and matchups always matter, one of the most reliable indicators of fantasy potential comes from the betting market. High over/unders signal expected scoring, and more points on the board generally translate to more opportunities for fantasy production. Every touchdown and red-zone trip boosts the chances for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends and even kickers to deliver starter-worthy numbers.
This week’s slate offers several matchups with enticing totals. A handful of contests stand out as potential fantasy goldmines, making them worth targeting when finalizing lineups. Below are the games, along with some included fantasy football analysis and advice.
*Over/under totals obtained from FanDuel Sportsbook*
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (O/U: 50.5)
The Ravens and Bills have the highest point total of the week, suggesting Week 1 will feature a shootout between Baltimore’s high-octane rushing attack and Buffalo’s well-rounded offense. The matchup is also a duel of two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Josh Allen earned MVP honors last season, while Lamar Jackson finished as the runner-up. The last time the two teams faced off was in the AFC Divisional Round last season, where they combined to score 52 points. The QBs, as well as running backs Derrick Henry and James Cook and wide receiver Zay Flowers, are must-starts. Rashod Bateman and Khalil Shakir also notched solid performances in the team’s last matchup, making both worthy of a flex play. Isaiah Likely is not expected to play in the game, making Mark Andrews another lineup lock.
Quarterbacks:
Josh Allen - Must Start
Lamar Jackson - Must Start
Running Backs:
Derrick Henry - Must Start
James Cook - Must Start
Justice Hill - Sit
Ray Davis - Sit
Wide Receivers:
Zay Flowers - Start
Rashod Bateman - Flex Consideration
Khalil Shakir - Flex Consideration
Keon Coleman - Flex Consideration
DeAndre Hopkins - Sit
Joshua Palmer - Sit
Tight Ends:
Mark Andrews - Start
Dalton Kincaid - Sit
Dawson Knox - Sit
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (O/U: 47.5)
The 2025 NFL season kicks off with a matchup that almost always produces fantasy fireworks. The Cowboys and Eagles have combined for 40 or more points in their last nine head-to-head matchups dating back to 2020. Six of those games resulted in 48 or more combined points. Jalen Hurts is a must-start while Dak Prescott projects as a solid QB2 option. Squon Barkley falls under the same category as Hurts. However, I’d bench all Cowboys running backs as the Eagles are a difficult matchup, and questions regarding the division of labor remain. The pass catchers on both sides are solid plays, with A.J. Brown and Ceedee Lamb being locked into lineups. Dallas Goedert is the more intriguing play as far as tight ends on either side, as Jake Ferguson will have to operate with Zack Baun patrolling the middle.
Quarterbacks:
Jalen Hurts - Must Start
Dak Prescott - Mid-Level Start
Running Backs:
Saquon Barkley - Must Start
Will Shipley - Bench
Javonte Williams - Bench
Miles Sanders - Bench
Jaydon Blue - Bench
Wide Receivers:
A.J. Brown - Must Start
Ceedee Lamb - Must Start
DeVonta Smith - Start
George Pickens - Flex Consideration
Tight Ends:
Dallas Goedert - Mid-Level Start
Jake Ferguson - Bench
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (O/U: 47.5)
The Lions at Packers game is one of four games this week with a line of 47.5. This game likely features the most fantasy-relevant players of all contests. Both teams are offenses with firepower at all skill positions, making for an intriguing watch. Their most recent matchup was a 34-31 shootout that ultimately ended in a Lions victory. Jared Goff is a solid play at quarterback, as he averages over 230 yards per game and nearly two touchdown passes across nine career games against the Packers. Jordan Love’s numbers against the Lions, on the other hand, aren’t so great, averaging under 190 passing yards, a TD and an interception in six career games. But with the Packers thin in their secondary and the Lions struggling to contain opposing pass-catchers in recent years, most receivers and tight ends are also great plays. Each team’s starter in the backfield is also a lineup lock.
Quarterbacks:
Jared Goff - Start
Jordan Love - Bench
Running Backs:
Jahmyr Gibbs - Must Start
Josh Jacobs - Start
Davis Montgomery - Flex Consideration
Wide Receivers:
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Must Start
Jameson Williams - Start
Jayden Reed - Flex Consideration
Matthew Golden - Flex Consideration
Romeo Doubs - Bench
Tight Ends:
Sam LaPorta - Must Start
Tucker Kraft - Start
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 47.5)
The Buccaneers and Falcons’ last three matchups netted combined scores of 66, 57 and 54. The Falcons gave up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2024, while the Buccaneers surrendered the ninth-most. Drake London, Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are all strong plays. Both teams were also very friendly to tight ends, making Cade Otton and Kyle Pitts mid-tier options at the position. Each team’s starting running back makes the lineup locks list, with Rachaad White even being a potential deeper league play because of his pass-catching ability. Baker Mayfield is also a must-start, and Michael Penix Jr. made my list of QBs to start in Week 1 because of the juicy matchup.
Quarterbacks:
Baker Mayfield - Must Start
Michael Penix Jr. - Start
Running Backs:
Bijan Robinson - Must Start
Bucky Irving - Must Start
Rachaad White - Deeper League Consideration
Tyler Allgeier - Bench
Wide Receivers:
Drake London - Must Start
Mike Evans - Must Start
Emeka Egbuka - Start
Darnell Mooney - Flex Consideration
Chris Godwin Jr. - Bench
Tight Ends:
Cade Otton - Mid-Level Start
Kyle Pitts - Mid-Level Start
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers (O/U: 46.5)
A sneaky high-scoring game between the Chiefs and Chargers makes the cut. Although their last three matchups have netted scoring totals of 36 or less, their seven previous matchups have all yielded scores of 43 or more. This game will likely be headlined by its quarterback and pass-catcher play, as the Chargers and Chiefs were two of the three best defenses against opposing running backs in 2024 in terms of fantasy points against. The only RB I feel confident in playing is Omarion Hampton. Both teams were middle of the pack last year in fantasy points given up to WRs. Ladd McConkey and Xavier Worthy are lineup locks with other offering flex consideration. Travis Kelce is the only tight end worth playing, as a TE room of Will Dissly and Tyler Conklin for the Chargers is tough to navigate in Week 1.
Quarterbacks:
Patrick Mahomes - Must Start
Justin Herbert - Start
Running Backs:
Omarion Hampton - Start
Isiah Pacheco - Flex Consideration
Najee Harris - Bench
Kareem Hunt - Bench
Wide Receivers:
Ladd McConkey - Must Start
Xavier Worthy - Start
Hollywood Brown - Flex Consideration
Keenan Allen - Flex Consideration
Quentin Johnston - Bench
Tight Ends:
Travis Kelce - Must Start
Will Dissly - Bench
Tyler Conklin - Bench
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Michael Rovetto previously served as the staff writer for University of Maryland Athletics for nearly two years. There, he wrote, edited and managed all editorial content for all 20 of Maryland's varsity sports on umterps.com. Rovetto is recognized as a College Sports Communicators district award-winning writer. Many of his stories have also appeared on NCAA.org, garnering national attention. Before graduating from Maryland's Philip Merrill College of Journalism in December 2023, Rovetto wrote for PressBox and Terrapin Sports Central, covering Maryland men's basketball and football. He also has experience in broadcasting, previously working as an analyst and camera operator for Big State Sports, and communication, interning for Shell Shock TBT as its Director of Communication & Content Development.