Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings: Derrick Henry is Safer Than Ashton Jeanty
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The NFL fanbase loves to overreact. Why? They proclaimed Ashton Jeanty a bust candidate after his first game, and now they consider him an MVP after his second game. It is just all a part of a long story. Jeanty projects to be in with the new as Derrick Henry is one of the old, still going strong. Both of these running backs have value around the mid-late first round, so who should you prefer to draft?
Ashton Jeanty
The Raiders drafted Jeanty at 6th overall, and with good reason. He is a generational running back prospect out of Boise State. He has great vision, side-to-side movement, acceleration, yards after contact, and even pass-catching ability. The Raiders for sure have a star, so how should be valued in fantasy football?
According to the NFL power index, the Raiders have the 24th ranked offense in the NFL. I project that their offensive line will be about that same rating. Jeanty is an extremely good player and can overcome early-contact, but it will limit him to some level. This will also wear him down throughout a long season if he his hit often and hard.
Our Fantasy on SI projections say that Ashton Jeanty will carry the ball at the 5th highest clip in the NFL. Our team also predicts a moderate 48 catches on his rookie season. Between workload and situation, I would say that Jeanty is adequately valued according to consensus ADP. He will be a late first round pick, and slightly higher in Non-PPR formats.
Fantasy On SI Ranking: RB5 (Standard) | RB5 (PPR)
Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry is the train that keeps chugging. I have speculated his regression since 2021 and I am now going to give up. Henry is among that healthier running backs in recent history and until he shows me otherwise, he will proceed to heavy great fantasy value.
That being said, the Ravens seem to be hinting towards a larger role for Keaton Mitchell. The young backup thrived in 2023, but missed quite a bit of time in 2024, thus providing results that we can ignore. Keaton Mitchell is for sure going to have a larger role, thus decreasing Henry's workload slightly. Derrick Henry had 325 carries in 2024.
Our projections show for a slight decrease in rushes for Derrick Henry with 304. However, we still project a mighty 17 touchdowns. So long as this team rushes efficiently, and they will, he will be the go-to goal line back. Keaton Mitchell is no threat in that situation. Behind Lamar Jackson and this offensive line, Derrick Henry may not finish again as RB2, but he surely will be a safe top-five running back when he plays every game.
Fantasy On SI Ranking: RB4 (Standard) | RB7 (PPR)
How I Would Draft These Running Backs
Ashton Jeanty is the higher risk player while Derrick Henry is the safer play. They will both command massive usage. They both will be prime touchdown candidates. As far as the better situation, it will be Henry.
When it all boils down to it, I would slightly prefer Derrick Henry due to his situation. The Ravens will be a top NFL team and so Henry is getting many touchdowns. As for Ashton Jeanty, there is a world where he very much does score 15+ times, but his floor sits at 6-7 touchdowns, so the range of outcomes works against him.
Pick Jeanty over Henry only in PPR.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.