Projecting Super Bowl LX MVP with Key Stats: Consider Kenneth Walker III & Non-QBs

Super Bowl Sunday is a day jam-packed with betting action: the coin toss, opening kickoff, touchdown scorers, and the MVP. Finding the MVP is not always so simple. Often, it is a quarterback, but not always. Today, we will analyze all key contenders for the honor and tell you why our projections make a case for each possible candidate. It may not be Sam Darnold or Drake Maye.

Sam Darnold, QB (SEA)

Projection: 21-30, 238 Yards, 2 Touchdowns, 0 Interceptions

Odds: +115

Quarterbacks are often the fallback option. If nobody breaks out, Darnold can win this by protecting the ball and playing a solid game. As a run-heavy team, Darnold is definitely a fade candidate, and any Seahawks position player or even a defensive player can win the award.

Drake Maye, QB (NE)

Projection: 22-32, 253 Yards, 2 Touchdowns, 1 Interception

Odds: +230

Maye may see a game that is tougher than hoped. The Patriots faced the 32nd-hardest strength of schedule this season. Maye has also fumbled the football more than any NFL quarterback — 15 times. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 6th in Takeaways, and the Patriots are 26th in Sacks Allowed per Game. There is certainly a risk with his reward.

Kenneth Walker III, RB (SEA)

Projection: 19 Attempts, 86 Yards, 1 Touchdown | 3 Receptions, 22 Yards

Odds: +850

Walker III may be exciting. Our team projects Walker III to have 19 attempts, and with the Seahawks favored by (4.5) points, this 50% run-rate can become 10-25% higher if Seattle leads. If Walker turns these 86 yards and 1 touchdown into 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns, he can absolutely win MVP honors.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (NE)

Projection: 15 Attempts, 59 Yards, 0.5 Touchdowns | 4 Receptions, 29 Yards

Odds: +3000

Stevenson would have to repeat his AFC Championship volume (96% Snap Share) to get the award. It will take a lot of success. Stevenson has seven touchdowns on the season and shares a volatile backfield with Henderson. It is both risky and unlikely.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (SEA)

Projection: 6 Receptions, 89 Yards, 1 Touchdown

Odds: +550

If any wide receiver wins the award, it is very likely to be Smith-Njigba. His target share is 36% for the year, and we project him to reach nearly 100 total yards. A big-play option, Smith-Njigba can easily go for a huge touchdown. If he can elapse 100 yards and have multiple touchdowns, he can win the award. It is worth noting that whatever he does, Darnold will have done as well. Smith-Njigba must impress, but that's that; he can.

Stefon Diggs, WR (NE)

Projection: 5 Receptions, 49 Yards, 0.5 Touchdowns

Odds: +4500

Diggs is a volatile option. Per our projection, he is not meant to achieve high honors. Our Diggs' Super Bowl analysis also makes its own noteworthy case.

The Super Bowl MVP can be a little bit of a popularity award. If Diggs can make one big play to help decide the game, he may not have to achieve wonders in his stat line. Diggs does, however, have five 100+ yard games this season. Two of these were against the top 5 coverages.

Defensive Candidates

It can be challenging to project a defensive MVP winner. If this comes to fruition, it may happen on a big, game-changing play. Anyone can do that. As for players with high sack-rates and turnover generation, these are some options:

Only three MVPs (9% of the time) have been on defense since 2000 (Ray Lewis, Malcolm Smith, Von Miller)

Byron Murphy II, DT (SEA) — 9 Sacks (+12500)

Leonard Williams, DT (SEA) — 9 Sacks (+10000)

Ernest Jones Jr., LB (SEA) — 6 Interceptions, 100 Tackles (+12500)

K'Lavon Chaisson, DE (NE) — 12 Sacks (+22500)

Harold Landry III, DE (NE) — 9 Sacks (+30000)